RADIO
The regular season is over, but that doesn't mean the fantasy fun stops there. Playoff fantasy football is still a great way to carry on playing this game that we love and providing us all with a vested interest in each of these playoff games, no matter how unexciting some of them may appear to be.
Playoff leagues come in many shapes and sizes. You can have an actual snake style draft where you set your best roster each week and the team with the most points wins. You can have a league where you select one player from every team and the most points wins. You can have a team where you choose a new lineup for each round of the playoffs, but can only use each player once and the most points wins. Today's discussion will concern one particular format and my preferred format - pick an 18-player roster with the entire player pool at your disposal before the start of the playoffs and accumulate as many points as possible over the four rounds.
Each round, you must start a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, FLEX. Well, that is, for as long as you can. If you're able to submit a full lineup each week, you're probably going to win. This brings us to the first step in drafting your team. I debuted this article two years ago and the overall strategy is the same; the difference is the players. For those of you with great memories, this may be a bit repetitive. For the newcomers, welcome! I hope this helps you dominate your playoff league. *It goes without saying that even within the umbrella of full-length playoff leagues, roster lengths and starting spots come in all different shapes and sizes. I call on you, the intelligent reader, to do your best and extrapolate what you read here to apply to your specific league.
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What's New in 2021?
The reason my playoff league commissioner expanded both starting roster spots and bench spots is to correspond with the NFL expanding its playoffs to include an extra wild card spot in each conference. This is not only impactful in that there are more players to choose from, but it changes the near-universal strategy of selecting enough players playing in Wild Card Weekend to fill your starting roster with the rest of your players coming from the teams with byes. With only one team in each conference receiving a bye, that's no longer possible. So, in addition to having a larger player pool that will inevitably lead to more diverse rosters, a key tenet of winning will be lineup decisions - particularly those occurring in the opening round.
Select Players That Will Play Multiple Games
Obviously, this is easier said than done. Football is very much a game with randomness and if we knew who would win these games, this would be too easy. In this format, in previous years, it was a certainty that you could field a full lineup for at least the first two rounds. You could guarantee it due to the nature of the first-round byes. That's no longer a certainty, but you'd have to get things pretty wrong to not have a full lineup available to you in round two.
The biggest challenge is ensuring you can get close to a full lineup when we're down to just four teams in the conference championships and then just two in the Super Bowl.
The odds of any team playing round one advancing to the Super Bowl will almost always be lower than the teams with the byes. However, unlike previous years, we know with 100% certainty that two of the teams playing in round one will be playing in the conference championship. Selecting players on that team, especially if you think that team can make it all the way to the super bowl, is invaluable in this format.
Predict The Outcome Of The Games
In order to optimize your chances of winning, you need to have conviction. You are not going to win your playoff league by playing it safe and taking players on just about every team. There are 14 teams in the playoffs, which means eight of them will be gone after the first two rounds. You need to have as many players as possible on those final four and, ultimately, the final two teams.
To do that, you have to trust your analysis on how the actual games will play out. This is the fundamental difference between playoff fantasy (specifically, this format) and regular-season fantasy. We don't care who wins the regular season games as long as our players produce because, absent injury, our players all play the same 15 games. In playoff fantasy, the outcome of the games is immensely important. Once your player's team loses, that's it for that player. Your roster literally just shrinks. You cannot replace him.
Pick The Best Players...On The Teams You Think Will Win
Now we're at the point where we can discuss actual players. We are all entering uncharted waters here with the inception of the new playoff format with three wild card games in each conference. The analysis should always start with the odds. The Saints, Bills, Steelers, and Bucs are all at least touchdown favorites. They are the four most likely teams to win. That means you should avoid players on the Bears, Colts, Browns, and Football Team.
My advice would be to not take a single player on the Football Team. While they have multiple fantasy-relevant players and both Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas have been very good this season, they are likely playing just one game the matchup is not ideal.
The Browns don't have anyone extremely appealing outside of Nick Chubb and even though he racked up an impressive 108 yards on 14 carries last week, the Steelers have a strong run defense and Chubb cedes snaps to Kareem Hunt when the Browns are trailing. Even if you think the Browns will upset the Steelers, that would almost certainly send them to Kansas City, where it's hard to see them winning.
The Bears have Allen Robinson and David Montgomery, both of whom are very legitimate options. I won't outright say to avoid them because there's definitely some upset potential with the Bears. There's also the fact that ARob was a WR1 this season and Montgomery an RB1. Even if you get one game out of them, it could be a really good game. I am going to discuss the Colts and Jonathan Taylor in the same breath because the same logic applies with Taylor finishing the season as an elite RB1. With these three players, even though you may only get one game, that one game could be massive. Most importantly, these three players are likely to not be very heavily rostered. If you start one or two of these lesser rostered players and you hit, that will give you a significant advantage over the field. This even more pronounced in larger pools where differentiation will be key.
Before you put a player or two on teams you expect to lose on your roster, you need to focus on the teams that will win. My picks to win wild card weekend are the Saints, Bucs, Rams, Bills, Ravens, and Steelers. The Rams and Ravens are my lowest confidence picks. In theory, that should lead to avoiding players on those teams. That leads to the next section.
Try To Be Different
You can always go straight chalk on everything. Mathematically, the teams with byes are more likely to reach the Super Bowl. But as anyone who fills out a March Madness bracket knows, putting all four #1 seeds in your Final Four is not going to win you any pools. Maybe you think Russell Wilson has a magical run in him? Maybe you think the Ravens are hot at the right time? Try and predict what your fellow owners will do and compose a roster that gives you a chance to win if the obvious doesn't happen.
The chalk rosters are going to load up on a Packers-Chiefs Super Bowl. While that is mathematically the most likely outcome, as the anti-analytics people love to say, football isn't played in a classroom. Now that doesn't mean you shouldn't load up on Chiefs and Packers, but you need to do something that gives you a chance to separate from the field.
If you really do believe the Super Bowl will be Packers-Chiefs, then you have to select Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (assuming we get news he will be back in a couple of weeks), Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Robert Tonyan. One way to give yourself a leg up if that is, in fact, the Super Bowl, would be to add fringe players like Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins. The downside to that strategy, though, is you will take a hit along the way and the advantage you gain by having those players in the Super Bowl likely won't make up for the points you lose getting there. You will need to differentiate a different way. One example is what I discussed above with selecting elite players on teams you predict to lose. JT, ARob, and DMont can all put up big time numbers in losses.
I agree that the Super Bowl will most likely be Packers-Chiefs, but the Bills, Ravens, and Saints are all very live. While we are all down on the Steelers now, too, let's not forget they did go 11-0 and can easily figure it out again. The only teams I would completely disregard as having no chance to make the Super Bowl are the Colts, Bears, Football Team, Browns, and Rams.
Consider lineup management in advance. When drafting your fantasy team back in August, you know so much will change in player values. Entering the NFL playoffs, we know who all of these players are. Look ahead to the divisional round, assume you get everything correct in the wild card round, and figure out who you will be starting. Use this information to determine if it's worth it to take the road less traveled on particular players. If you choose a contrarian player that doesn't have a smash round one matchup and you aren't likely to start him round two, rethink whether you need that player.
The teams that win are going to be the ones that are most correct in:
- Predicting which Wild Card Weekend teams make the conference championship and choose the most players on those teams.
- Predicting the Super Bowl matchup and choosing all fantasy-relevant players on those teams.
- Starting the correct players in the first two rounds of the playoffs, especially if those players aren't obvious starts.
My Roster And Reasoning
Now that we've spent plenty of time discussing how and why to construct a roster a particular way, I will share with you my team and explain my choices.
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
RB: Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones, Aaron Jones, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Diontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown
TE: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews
The first thing I did was predict how I believe the playoffs will pan out. I am not super confident in any one outcome, but I do agree that the most likely outcome is a Packers-Chiefs Super Bowl. As such, I took the big three Chiefs as well as CEH (I may replace him if the prognosis on his return is bad) and two Packers, Adams, and Jones.
You probably noticed I did not take Aaron Rodgers. There's a method to the madness. With only one starting quarterback required, I am rolling the dice on a Chiefs-Ravens AFC title game, which guarantees me the AFC quarterback in the Super Bowl. I don't need Rodgers. In fact, if I were to add a third quarterback, it would be Josh Allen as that increases my odds of getting the AFC quarterback.
Now, while I think Packers-Chiefs is the most likely Super Bowl, as I discussed above, so does anyone else. I decided to go all-in on a Bucs-Ravens Super Bowl. There is an inherent risk in doing so, but if I'm correct, I'm almost certainly going to win. As such, I took every fantasy-relevant player on the Ravens and Bucs with the exception of Hollywood Brown and Rob Gronkowski because I do not think they are nearly good enough to warrant foregoing other players. As for Mike Evans specifically, he is in the same boat as CEH for me where I may replace him if I have to, but as long as I'm confident he will return by the conference championship, I'm going to keep him (and CEH).
Given my heavy weight on Bucs, even if I get the Ravens side of it wrong, I took enough Chiefs to keep myself in contention as long as they are the other team. Obviously, if the Bills or an unexpected team makes a run, I will lose, but those are the risks you must take to win these larger pool formats. I expect most Bucs, especially AB and RoJo to be rostered by very few teams, so if Tom Brady does it again, I really like my chances.
I don't have to explain why I went with guys like Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, and Alvin Kamara. They are all elite players at their positions, will be near-universally rostered, and you just have to have them. There are spots to make up points on everyone else. This is not it.
I touched on why I chose Jonathan Taylor earlier. Even though I expect the Colts to lose, Taylor can have a big enough game in a loss that justifies his selection.
The Path Not Chosen
Now that I've explained the players I've chosen and why, I think it is equally important to go through the players and more so the teams I excluded.
I haven't touched upon the Seahawks or Rams yet. Both teams have multiple players worth selecting. I left out players on these two teams entirely because I do not think either team has a realistic chance of winning more than one game and I don't like their prospects to produce in their round one game. The Rams have one of the better defenses in the league, particularly at defending the pass, so D.K. Metcalf is not a strong round one option. I also think the Rams are winning this game, but even if they don't, taking Metcalf for a potential round two start just isn't worth it. Tyler Lockett is not a consideration because he's secretly been terrible for fantasy all season.
While I like Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, the Rams are still road underdogs potentially playing with a backup quarterback. I do think the Rams will win, but only one game and I'm nowhere near confident enough to put Kupp or Woods on my team.
I imagine Derrick Henry will be a popular pick and out of all the players I passed on playing in round one, he was the toughest one to leave out. The Titans can certainly win this game and go on another run, making Henry a fantastic choice because he's incredible. Plus, we already saw him demolish the Ravens just one year ago. The Titans are definitely a team worth going all-in on as a contrarian option. I just feel like it's the Ravens' year and they are peaking at the right time so I'm fading Henry and A.J. Brown.
Closing Thoughts
In finalizing your roster, predict your final four teams and the Super Bowl and maximize your potential player pool accordingly. This turned out to be way longer than I expected, but hey, I love football. Good luck and above all else, just enjoy the games!
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