RADIO
We have our busiest Saturday in nearly a month this week. We have 49 games today. If you turn on the TV anytime between noon and midnight, there's going to be football on somewhere. That's what makes college much more enjoyable than the NFL.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I had a good week last week as far as taking money from the casinos, but I still barely kept above .500. Still, making the money is what really counts. We're here for the Saturday extravaganza though! It begins now!
(2)Cincinnati(-26.5) at Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ugh...another one of those big lines. We better get used to them. The Bearcats had little chance on covering that against Navy, but Tulane can't control the ball the way Navy did. Cincinnati is really in need of style points now. They get them. It's called "The Big Easy" for a reason.....
(6)Michigan(-3.5) at (8)Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan being favored by more than a field goal on the road seems a bit much. Sure, Sparty is 0-7 against their last AP top 10 opponents, losing all of those games by at least 14 points. This is a different team though. The whole culture is different under Mel Tucker. I said that Michigan State was the best team in the state about six weeks ago and I'm sticking to it. Give me Sparty.
(9)Iowa at Wisconsin(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Interesting..... Yeah, Iowa can't throw the ball, but Wisconsin can't either. I understand this to some extent. Braelon Allen has added another dimension to this team and has made Chez Mellusi more dangerous. That still doesn't address the elephant in the room. Iowa's defense excels at stopping the run and forcing mistakes. The Badgers are pretty good at making mistakes. I still like Iowa straight up.
Texas at (16)Baylor(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Baylor defense is nasty and Texas has had issues with athletes. Baylor is loaded with them. Gerry Bohanon isn't making the mistakes that plagued him at times over the last couple of years. This is a winnable game for Texas, but if Baylor can get after Casey Thompson, they can force a couple of big errors. They have done it against more experienced quarterbacks, so I'm taking the Bears at home.
Miami(FL) at (17)Pittsburgh(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a little high considering how Miami looked last week. Tyler Van Dyke is in for a stiff road test and Kenny Pickett has this Pitt offense humming. The Hurricanes defense thrives on forcing turnovers. The bad news for them is that Pitt takes care of the ball this year. Pickett isn't making the mistakes that he did in 2018, 2019, and early last year. I'll take Pitt.
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Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ugh....I just don't trust the Wreck. I don't trust Virginia Tech either. Give me the Bees at home, but there's no way I would bet this.
Rutgers(-1.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, what does this line say about Penn State? Sean Clifford at 60% or not.....yeah. So.....this line opened with Illinois favored and should have stayed that way. By no means do I think that Illinois is good, but they are tough. I'll take the Illini outright at home.
Indiana at Maryland(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas obviously can't make heads or tails of the Indiana quarterback situation, and that's the point, right? Michael Penix Jr. is out. That much we know. Jack Tuttle was injured on the first drive last week, which is part of the reason why Indiana got buried. There is no "serious" damage for Tuttle, but as far as his availability for the weekend? Crickets. Even if Donaven McCulley and Grant Gremel have to run the team, I think I still like the Hoosiers. All five losses have come to teams ranked in the top ten this season. This is what happens when they finally play a team that wont blow them off the field. I can take Indiana and feel pretty good about it regardless of the quarterbacks. Stephen Carr and the defense should be enough.
Massachusetts at Liberty(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UMass was an easy cover, even for a struggling Florida State team. Give me Liberty.
Central Florida(-10.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels awfully low for a team that can't stop the run. The UCF run game hasn't been the problem with Dillon Gabriel out. UCF should cover this with relative ease.
Bowling Green at Buffalo(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Falcons have lost four straight MAC games after upsetting Minnesota. Give me Buffalo, but I don't have a lot of confidence on them actually covering this.
Texas State at Louisiana(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Louisiana is a much better team, but they don't always play like it. I hope they do here because I'm taking the Cajuns.
(22)Iowa State(-7.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mountaineers are a team that always looks like they should be better than they are. The run defense for both teams is legit, but the Mountaineers have had some problems stopping balanced offenses. I'll take Iowa State. They do have the balance here.
North Texas at Rice(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One team is improving. The other is not. Give me Rice.
Missouri(-16.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If Vanderbilt actually had a back that I had confidence in (Re'Mahn Davis, where art thou?) I might be worried about this. They don't so I'm not. There's a big game incoming for Tyler Badie as Missouri makes us think they're good again, at least for a week.
Washington State at Arizona State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. Only USC has beaten the Cougars by more than 11 points and that was when Jarrett Guarantano was still seeing reps. I have on reason to think Arizona State covers this. The Cougars had plenty of chances to beat BYU last week and likely need to be a lot better about taking care of the ball, but I think they can do that. I'll say Sparky still wins, but more by 10 than 20. Give me Wazzu.
Hawaii at Utah State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Again, never trust Hawaii on the mainland. Give me the Aggies.
(1)Georgia(-14.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm supremely confident in the Georgia defense, but I don't have a lot of faith in the offense against this D. However, given how LSU ran all over the Gators, Georgia is capable of doing the same. I really don't like the half, and weird things happen in rivalries. I'm taking Georgia, but lowering the bet.
Texas Tech at (4)Oklahoma(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high after last week. However, Kansas might have a better defense than Texas Tech and the Red Raiders aren't built to play keep away from opposing offenses. I'll take the Sooners.
Colorado at (7)Oregon(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado is a phenomenally bad team, but so is Arizona and the Ducks didn't cover them either. Still, Colorado can't throw. I have to take Oregon.
Florida International at Marshall(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ouch. That's a lot of points. Max Bortenschlager is looking better for FIU and I just can't trust Marshall. Give me FIU because of that half.
Louisiana Tech(-4.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Okay, La Tech getting whipped by UTSA isn't that bad of a loss. The Monarchs are just not a good team. At least Austin Kendall has potential. Give me the Bulldogs.
Southern Mississippi at Middle Tennessee State(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was expecting worse. Give me MTSU until the Eagles show any signs of life.
Florida State at Clemson(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't really care if D.J. Uiagaleilei or Taisun Phommanchanh start this game. This is too low. The Clemson defense can shut down the Seminoles. I just need the offense to get me two touchdowns. One from each quarterback. Simple enough!
Boston College at Syracuse(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well this is interesting. The Eagles have struggled under Dennis Grosel and the Orange have surged with Garrett Shrader. I like the BC defense, but I don't think the offense keeps up. Give me the Orange.
Minnesota(-7.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line jumped 3.5 points, so that's a little concerning. Can we really count on Tanner Morgan? I don't like the half, but Northwestern has been torn apart in the run game. Minnesota just keeps churning out good running backs. They shouldn't have to throw the ball to win this. The half has me lowering the bet, but I'll still take Minnesota.
Purdue at Nebraska(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know if I buy this. Nebraska has had trouble with teams that can throw. The Boilermakers aren't a good running team, but Nebraska could have stopped them even if they were. I can't make heads or tails of this Nebraska team. All I know is that I'm betting the minimum. The Cornhuskers beat a better Purdue team last year when they shouldn't have. I'll take Nebraska, I guess.....
TCU at Kansas State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Having every fan in the stadium wearing some shade of purple might be more exciting than the actual game. Kansas State has done a good job stuffing the run and I don't think Max Duggan wins this game on the road. Give me K-State.
Louisiana-Monroe at Appalachian State(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know Appalachian is capable of covering this, but I'm not going to sit here and ignore how well the Warhawks have played over the last month or so. They wont win this outright. In fact, they probably wont come close. However, I don't think they just stand there and get pounded either. Give me Monroe.
Duke at (13)Wake Forest(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
That's not nearly high enough. North Carolina A&T's putrid 56 passing yards against Duke is skewing their stats. They have allowed at least 260 passing yards to every other team. Wake, and Sam Hartman in particular, are in for a huge game here. Duke has been outscored 117-34 in ACC play. There's no way they keep it this close. Wake by a lot!
Charlotte at Western Kentucky(17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low as well. The Hilltoppers defense has been an issue, but Charlotte can't stop Bailey Zappe. Give me WKU.
Wyoming at San Jose State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I can't believe that Wyoming was ever favored. The Spartans might have Nick Starkel back, but I'm going to say that Vegas doesn't think they will with the line still this low. With or without Starkel, this is too low. Give me the Spartans.
Arkansas State at South Alabama(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The bettors still think that the loss to Monroe is a black mark on the Jags' record. This line is down four points. Fine by me, I was going to take USA anyway. Now I can just raise the bet.
UTEP at Florida Atlantic(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be a tough one for the Miners. They have had a really good season already, but waltzing into Boca Raton and keeping it within single digits seems unlikely. Give me the Owls, but I'm pulling for you, UTEP.
Georgia State(-5.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A rivalry game involving two bad offenses. What can possibly go wrong? A lot. Give me Georgia State. They are the last team to beat Monroe. That has to count for something.
(10)Mississippi at (18)Auburn(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I picked Ole Miss in pick em, so I'll stick with it here. However, I have about as much confidence as I do there. I likely wont bet this one. Ole Miss isn't as consistent as I would like and Bo Nix is a lot better than he was last year.
(12)Kentucky at Mississippi State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The cowbells are worth a lot of points in handicapping, I guess. No one trusts the Pirate. Not even Vegas. I do trust Wan'Dale Robinson to break at least one long touchdown. Give me Kentucky.
Kansas at (15)Oklahoma State(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a lot of points. I know the Cowboys are mad and at home, but they can't possibly cover this, right? I don't think so. Give me Kansas.
(19)SMU at Houston(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Oh really? Hell yes! I like money! SMU by at least a touchdown! I trust very little about Houston on either side of the ball.
Oregon State(-1.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low, especially considering that the Beavers just beat a good Utah team by more than a touchdown. Oregon State might win this by double digits!
Arizona at USC(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can the Trojans get out of their own way enough to cover this? For once, I think so. Arizona is that bad without Jordan McCloud.
Boise State(-2.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know, I kind of like the Rams outright. Even though they haven't played all that well lately. However, Boise thrashed a Utah State team in Logan that just beat Colorado State last week. Give me Boise.
(20)Penn State at (5)Ohio State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is the gap this big? Oh yeah. Maybe bigger. Ohio State is one of the most complete teams out there. I'll take the Buckeyes.
North Carolina at (11)Notre Dame(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. I've seen the Tarheels play some really bad games this year, especially on the road. I'll take the Irish.
Louisville at North Carolina State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like this line at all. For under a touchdown I'll take the Wolfpack, but I'm not all that confident in it.
UCLA at Utah(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I do like Utah, but they are going to have serious problems with the UCLA run game. There's no official word on Dorian Thompson-Robinson yet, but a lot of those close to the UCLA team feel like he's going to play. If he does, I like UCLA outright. Even if he doesn't, this is a winnable game for the Bruins. I'll take UCLA.
Virginia at (25)BYU(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Hoos have broken my heart and my pocketbook a few times this year. Games like last week keep me coming back. All of those receivers have a shot at playing on Sundays, and it's almost a certainty that Brennan Armstrong will. The defense has some issues, but BYU doesn't have players explosive enough to really gouge them. I like Virginia outright. Apparently, I'm going down with this ship.
Fresno State at (21)San Diego State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Flat lines are hard to come by in the betting world and we have three of them this week. Unlike the other two, I know exactly which way I'm going on this one. Fresno is the better team right now and it's not close. Give me the Bulldogs.
Washington at Stanford(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Some consistency out of either team would be a welcome sight, but there is no part of me that trusts Dylan Morris to win a game right now, especially on the road. Give me Stanford, but it's not just by default. Tanner McKee and Austin Jones are very good players.
I ended up pounding the late night and ending up with six four-point picks. The last time I had that many was Week 2 and that didnt' go so well. I only have eight one-pointers, which after last week's disaster there, might be a good thing. The twos are again the most with 21. I have 15 threes and three fives, so there are a lot of points on there for me this week. I guess I feel better about it than I thought. Let's win some money!
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