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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 7 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week was chock full of upsets, an epic rematch between the Chiefs and Bills, a coach getting fired, and several key injuries, all of which resulted in lower overall scoring. There are four new teams on bye this week including the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles, which sidelines some of the best fantasy options at all four offensive positions, pushing the remaining players up in the rankings.
For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that as well. Hopefully, you found a way to grind out a win, and you have some depth players to deploy this week, as we prepare to crush our opponents. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Implied Total: Browns (19.5) vs. Ravens (26)
Pace: Browns (27th) vs. Ravens (30th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 13.8% Pass (14th), 12.8% Rush (4th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 33.9% Pass (4th), 13.7% Rush (3rd)
Browns Def. DVOA: 17.5% Pass (27th), 13.1% Rush (30th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 0.8% Pass (10th), 0.1% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
It was a sloppy game for Jackson, throwing a pick and committing two fumbles, one of which he lost. The timing was also particularly dreadful. Thankfully, his 77 rushing yards kept him from being a complete bust for fantasy, although this was certainly not the output you'd hoped for. The Ravens host the Browns this week, which provides Jackson with the perfect spot for a bounce-back performance. He's played three solid defenses and now gets to exploit the Browns, who were just roasted for 309 and two by Bailey Zappe. With multiple elite quarterbacks on a bye week, he's a top-three option.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews is the receiving corps for the Ravens. He accounted for over 50% of Jackson's passing yards, his only passing touchdown, and 41 % of his completions. They need more from their receivers to win games, but Andrews is a top-two tight end regardless.
UPDATE: Mark Andrews is active.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Ravens RBs
J.K. Dobbins experienced some discomfort in his knee midway through their game last week, forcing him out of action, which opened the door for Kenyan Drake to take over, who had a really nice game that included a touchdown run. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill both missed last week with injuries, meaning if Dobbins can't go this week, Drake would have a full game as the lead back, in a nice matchup. He'd be a top-36 back with touchdown upside.
UPDATE: Dobbins has been ruled out, while Hill and Edwards will return to action, making all three risky flex options.
Browns RBs
It was a rough week for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, largely because they got pummelled by the Patriots. Neither found much success as a rusher, and they combined for only three targets in the receiving game. Baltimore's defense has been fairly stingy in terms of yardage and fantasy points as an average matchup, plus the Ravens are favorites, which could force Cleveland to abandon their rushing attack again. There is still an opportunity for these two to have a nice day if the Browns can keep it close. Chubb will remain in your lineup as a top-15 back because of his touchdown upside and league-leading 11 breakaway runs, while Hunt is inside the top 36.
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
The 12 targets were fantastic, unfortunately, the production did not follow. New England has a very skilled secondary, that effectively limited Cooper in this game. The matchup will be easier this week, and his target share of 27.9% means he will stay a focal point in the passing game as a top-24 receiver. Donovan Peoples-Jones has also become an intriguing option, with 50-plus yards and four or more receptions in each of the last three games. He's a flex play this week as well.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku finished with six targets, second only to Cooper, and his three catches for 58 yards were reasonable, considering their offensive struggles. As discussed, the Browns could struggle again here but Njoku is too valuable at a position that is hard to find options, making him a top-10 tight end.
Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)
With Andrews commanding such a high amount of targets and Demarcus Robinson competing for volume, Duvernay remains a low-floor high-upside flex option that can give you a big week but can also give you almost nothing.
UPDATE: Rashod Bateman practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. He is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he plays, Duvernay becomes a bench and Bateman takes over his spot as a flex-level receiver with additional risk coming off the injury.
Injuries:
Gus Edwards (knee)
Rashod Bateman (foot)
J.K. Dobbins (knee)
Mark Andrews (knee)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Buccaneers -11
Implied Total: Buccaneers (25.5) vs. Panthers (14.5)
Pace: Buccaneers (2nd) vs. Panthers (5th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 22.4% Pass (10th), -20.7% Rush (30th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -36.3% Pass (32nd), -5.0% Rush (16th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -20.8% Pass (4th), -12.4% Rush (8th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 16.6% Pass (25th), -4.8% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
The recipe for success is simple here, another six receptions for 38 yards provide enough additional production that his 21 for 63 yards on the ground is just fine. He was the RB6 on the week and needs to be in your lineup against the Panthers because of the volume.
Buccaneers WRs
Chris Godwin had his first big game of the year, which coincided with a down game from Mike Evans, however, it's still possible for these two to succeed in the same week because they are the primary receivers. Admittedly, Fournette's target share has eaten into theirs to some degree but Carolina is a great matchup for both to have a nice game as top-15 receivers.
UPDATE: Julio Jones has been ruled out, opening the door for Russell Gage to resume his role as a starter but he's someone who is merely a desperation flex play in fantasy.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers RBs
The Panthers traded away their best offensive weapon, sending Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, making their situation much worse. D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard will battle for the lead-back role, but against the Buccaneers, neither is worth a start.
Panthers Passing Attack
We will get another week of P.J. Walker at quarterback, which is better than Jacob Eason. However, it's still not good enough for DJ Moore to crack your lineup in a very poor matchup, even with less competition for targets now that Robbie Anderson is an Arizona Cardinal.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has one monster game on the year, with four disappointing performances and one mediocre outing. The matchup hasn't been as fruitful for quarterbacks, but because of the bye weeks and the quarterback position as a whole, Brady is a top-10 quarterback this week.
Cade Otton (TE, TB)
Cameron Brate suffered what appeared to be a significant neck injury and exited the game early on Sunday. His absence would create an opportunity for Otton, who enters the streaming conversation after catching six passes for 43 yards last time Brate was out.
UPDATE: Brate has been ruled out, meaning Otton will get the start.
Injuries:
Baker Mayfield (ankle)
Julio Jones (knee)
Cameron Brate (neck)
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals-6.5
Implied Total: Falcons (20.25) vs. Bengals (26.75)
Pace: Falcons (19th) vs. Bengals (22nd)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 16.6% Pass (13th), 16.1% Rush (1st)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 8.3% Pass (19th), -10.6% Rush (23rd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 14.7% Pass (23rd), 1.5% Rush (25th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: -9.3% Pass (8th), -6.5% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow went nuclear last week against what has been a decent Saints secondary, although they were without Marshon Lattimore, which definitely helps. He was the QB1 on the week with 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and even scored on the ground. While it would be foolish to expect him to repeat that output this week, the offense looked a lot better last week, earning him a spot in the top 10 this week against a feisty but beatable Atlanta defense.
Bengals WRs
Ja'Marr Chase was the primary benefactor of Burrow's huge game, posting a seven for 132 and two, stat line of his own to finish as the WR1 on the week. Tee Higgins was active but despite his 10 targets, did not appear at full health. Hopefully, he is feeling better entering this week's matchup, providing a chance for both to produce this week.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon found the end zone, which has been a rare occurrence this season, accounting for one of the three passing touchdowns from Burrow. The eight rushing attempts were a season-low, likely because of the matchup against a stout Saints defense. Atlanta will be a lot easier for Cincinnati to run against, making Mixon a top-15 back because of his workload.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons Passing Attack
Like a broken record, you'll find Kyle Pitts and Drake London here again. Pitts salvaged his day with a touchdown, his first of the season and second of his career, while London struggled despite a team-high four targets. Marcus Mariota attempted only 14 passes, which produced 129 yards. There isn't a scenario where that ends well for the receiving corps. Add in a difficult matchup against the Bengals and both players become touchdown or bust options.
Falcons RBs
Cincinnati is more vulnerable against the run and Atlanta much prefers to run, so on paper, this would be a good matchup. The issue is that this backfield is a complete timeshare. Tyler Allgeier played on 33 offensive snaps with 15 carries, Caleb Huntley played on 20 snaps with 16 carries, and Avery Williams played on seven offensive snaps with two carries and a target. Given the limited options at the running back position, both Allgeier and Huntley are flex options but neither is a player you want to start.
Other Matchups:
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN)
Hurst was fifth in targets on the team behind Chase, Higgins, Mixon, and Tyler Boyd, which is why he's a touchdown-dependent option in a good offense. His two games with more than four targets were when Higgins was injured, so he's a streamer who needs to score to produce.
Injuries:
Cordarrelle Patterson (knee)
Damien Williams (ribs)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -7.0
Implied Total: Lions (21) vs. Cowboys (28)
Pace: Lions (3rd) vs. Cowboys (12th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 12.3% Pass (15th), 9.3% Rush (5th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 4.0% Pass (21st), 9.2% Rush (6th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 24.1% Pass (32nd), 13.7% Rush (31st)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -24.6% Pass (3rd), -5.4% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Nothing like getting the worst-ranked DVOA pass defense in your first week back. It's hard to know just how comfortable Prescott will be after sitting for the past five weeks, but he's a must-start with both receivers at full health in an incredible matchup.
Cowboys WRs
Cooper Rush was able to sustain CeeDee Lamb's fantasy value as the WR13 on the year. We'll now find out whether the breakout many were calling for is going to happen with Prescott back at the helm. It's also great news for Michael Gallup, who played a season-high 76% of offensive snaps last week. That number should continue to climb, providing him with top-30 value in a great matchup.
Cowboys RBs
Detroit also happens to be one of the best matchups on the ground, making Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard interesting options this week. The workload was much closer last week with 14 touches on 41 offensive snaps for Elliott and 13 touches on 27 offensive snaps for Pollard. Dallas is projected to establish a big lead and pile on yards and points, making both top-24 backs with the upside in favor of Pollard and the floor in favor of Elliot.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff was a fantasy gem earlier in the year until the Lions were shut out by the Patriots in Week 5. With a full complement of weapons, you'd expect the offense to score more points and him to return to being a streaming option. Unfortunately, Dallas is not the defense you want to see on the schedule. Goff drops outside the top 12 as a risky streamer this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson jammed what could have been several viable weeks of fantasy production into an outrageous performance in Week 4 with 35.9 fantasy points. He's only generated 20.3 points the other four weeks, but with a 19.1% target share on the season as the second or third option on the team, he's nearly impossible to bench, even in a poor matchup.
Other Matchups:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
It seems like an eternity since St. Brown was setting records and racking up points, but after missing Week 4, playing injured in Week 5, and a bye in Week 6, he returns to the field. The matchup is tough, but his volume (10 targets per game over the first three weeks) and target share (28.1%), are too elite to keep him on your bench.
UPDATE: St. Brown has been taken off the injury report while DJ Chark has been ruled out. Josh Reynolds is next up, making him a flex play.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
The hope was that coming out of the bye week Swift would be fully healthy and ready to return to action. He practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday, creating question marks about his availability this week. If he is able to suit up, he takes on a defense that is easier to rush against, plus the Lions possess a top-five rushing attack, so he'd be a top-24 back. Even with Swift healthy, Jamaal Williams will have a role, especially given the injury situation, so he's a top-36 back who becomes a top-24 option himself if Swift misses.
UPDATE: Swift has been ruled out, thrusting Williams into the top-24 despite the matchup.
Injuries:
Dalton Schultz (knee)
D'Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder)
DJ Chark (ankle)
Josh Reynolds (knee)
UPDATE: Dalton Schultz has been taken off the injury report and will play. The matchup is great but he's tough to trust coming off the knee injury. He's a risky streamer.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -3.0
Implied Total: Giants (20) vs. Jaguars (23)
Pace: Giants (20th) vs. Jaguars (11th)
Giants Off. DVOA: 16.1% Pass (12th), 4.3% Rush (11th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (8th), -7.7% Rush (17th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 12.0% Pass (20th), 6.6% Rush (28th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 4.8% Pass (13th), -11.8% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Travis Etienne (RB, JAX)
Etienne's usage was indicative of a near 50/50 timeshare. He out-snapped James Robinson 29-27, they each had 12 touches, and neither found the end zone, thanks to JaMycal Hasty and Trevor Lawrence stealing rushing touchdowns. He was again far more productive with over 100 scrimmage yards. Despite being part of a committee, he's in the top 24 in missed tackles forced, elusive rating, and yards after contact. The Jaguars looked a lot better last week, despite losing to the Colts, and the Giants are a good matchup for running backs, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points, making Etienne a top-24 back.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants WRs
Wan'Dale Robinson was back on the field for the first time since leaving the game early in Week 1. He only played on 23% of offensive snaps but did generate four targets, which he turned into three grabs for 37 yards and a touchdown. He is by far the most intriguing receiver on the team, but the matchup isn't great and his usage needs to increase before he can be trusted as anything more than a flex option.
Jaguars WRs
Christian Kirk was fortunate to find pay dirt, otherwise, he was headed for another poor outing with four receptions for 24 yards. He now has five or fewer targets in three consecutive weeks, largely because the team is committing to their rushing attack and spreading the ball around. Evan Engram actually led the team in targets with six, and Zay Jones matched Kirk with five. Kirk has to be relegated to the flex tier of receivers given his reduced volume and increased volatility.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley played through a shoulder injury on his way to another great game. He still ceded only three carries to Matt Breida and caught three balls. New York did manage to throw the ball with more success, in part because of the return of Robinson. It will be worth monitoring his involvement as a pass-catcher if they are able to get their receiving corps healthy, but he slots in as a top-10 back because of his workhorse role, even against the Jaguars' stout run defense.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence still struggled as a passer but managed to score twice on the ground, finishing with a big fantasy day. They led most of the way until the fourth quarter, which could be the case against New York. The team seems more comfortable leaning on their rushing attack and the Giants are a middle-of-the-pack matchup, making Lawrence a streaming candidate with top-10 upside.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
As referenced above, he paced the team with six targets and finished with five catches for 40 yards. He now has six or more targets in three of five games, putting him into the streaming category of tight ends.
Injuries:
Kenny Golladay (knee)
Kadarius Toney (hamstring)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -2.5
Implied Total: Colts (19.75) vs. Titans (22.25)
Pace: Colts (14th) vs. Titans (32nd)
Colts Off. DVOA: -15.3% Pass (30th), -29.3% Rush (32nd)
Titans Off. DVOA: 19.6% Pass (11th), -8.0% Rush (18th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 11.5% Pass (18th), -13.7% Rush (6th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 18.2% Pass (29th), -21.5% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Colts WRs
Michael Pittman Jr. led the league in targets (16) and receptions (13) last week, with the third-most yards (134). His longest catch was for 20 yards, so he seems to have become more of a possession receiver than a downfield threat, which is where Alec Pierce enters the conversation. Pierce had a 32-yard touchdown grab on one of his seven targets. It was surprising to see Matt Ryan air out 58 times, but attacking Tennessee through the air is the best approach. Pittman jumps into the top 15 with Pierce inside the top 30.
Matchups We Hate:
Titans WRs
With Treylon Burks still sidelined it's hard to get excited about any of these receivers. The matchup favors the passing attack but we know this team is built around Derrick Henry. Robert Woods would be the most intriguing but he's a risky flex option.
Other Matchups:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
As mentioned, the matchup is not great for Henry but he looked fantastic heading into their bye week and has such a secure role in this offense. He's in the top 10 despite the Colts' rush defense.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor is expected to suit up after missing the past two weeks. The offense is likely to return to a more balanced attack with his presence, but they may also elect to feature him in the passing game the same way they did Deon Jackson this week, who saw 10 targets, second only to Austin Ekeler. The matchup is more difficult for running backs and the re-injury risk is a concern but Taylor is a top-15 option in his first game back.
UPDATE: Taylor is a full go with no restrictions, thrusting him into top-12.
Matt Ryan (QB, IND)
Coming off his best performance of the year as the QB2 with 389 passing yards and two passing touchdowns, Ryan has to be listed here because of the matchup and his talented duo of receivers. It feels a bit scary but he's a viable streaming option in a plus matchup with multiple top-10 quarterbacks on a bye.
Injuries:
Treylon Burks (toe)
Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Spread: Packers -4.5
Implied Total: Packers (23) vs. Commanders (18.5)
Pace: Packers (29th) vs. Commanders (10th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 11.4% Pass (16th), 5.5% Rush (10th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -11.2% Pass (29th), -20.2% Rush (29th)
Packers Def. DVOA: -0.3% Pass (9th), 14.5% Rush (32nd)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (19th), -16.5% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Once Randall Cobb went down, Tonyan began to flourish. Much like Burrow and Stafford, Aaron Rodgers has struggled behind his offensive line, leading to quicker shorter passes. We saw this two weeks ago against the Giants when Cobb had 13 targets and then again last week with 12 for Tonyan as the leader at the position. Washington is a much better matchup with an easier defense, but without Cobb, he's a strong streaming option, if not a top-12 tight end.
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
Lazard has been the one constant in the offense, largely because of his touchdown prowess. He's scored in four of five games and we've seen him produce 10-plus touchdowns in a season before so it's part of his repertoire. The Commanders are giving up the seventh-most points to receivers, making Lazard a top-24 play. Without Randall Cobb, there will also be more volume available for Romeo Doubs who has flashed but struggled with consistency. He and Rodgers have yet to form a strong connection but as the No. 2 receiver, he's worth a play as a top-36 option in this matchup.
UPDATE: Sammy Watkins is expected to play, this will not impact Doubs or Lazard this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Commanders Passing Attack
With Carson Wentz injured, the team will now turn to Taylor Heinicke. It's possible that he outperforms Wentz, but unlikely that he is somehow better than he was last season. Furthermore, the matchup is not great and the Packers are much easier to attack on the ground, which fits the personnel of the Commanders well. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel both had a brutal game against the Bears last week. McLaurin would be the preferred option but he'll face Jaire Alexander, making them flex options.
UPDATE: Logan Thomas and Jahan Dotson have been ruled out.
Other Matchups:
Packers RBs
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon returned to being in a 50/50 timeshare with 12 touches on 41 offensive snaps for Jones and 14 touches on 36 offensive snaps for Dillon. The offense hasn't been good enough to sustain two fantasy-relevant backs, and the matchup is much more difficult to attack on the ground. Jones is currently inside the top 10 in elusive rating, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact, in spite of his reduced workload. When you combine that with Aaron Rodgers emphasizing they need to get him more involved again, he becomes the better bet as a top-20 back with upside, pushing Dillon outside the top 24.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers had his worst fantasy game since Week 1, facing pressure on 14 of his dropbacks, resulting in four sacks and a lot of rushed throws. He was a touchdown away from his typical output of around 250 passing yards and two touchdowns, which is about what you'd expect against a vulnerable Washington defense. Rodgers is a top-12 quarterback in this matchup.
Brian Robinson (RB, WAS)
Robinson handled 17 of the 24 (71%) running back carries last week but he did not see a single target. The two things holding Robinson from entering the "matchups we love" section this week are the involvement of the other backs and the ineptitude of the offense. Robinson is still a volume-based top-36 back with upside if he scores.
Injuries:
Randall Cobb (ankle)
Sammy Watkins (hamstring)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
Carson Wentz (finger)
Jahan Dotson (hamstring)
Logan Thomas (calf)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -7.0
Implied Total: Texans (19.25) vs. Raiders (26.25)
Pace: Texans (25th) vs. Raiders (13th)
Texans Off. DVOA: -10.3% Pass (28th), -12.9% Rush (25th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 1.4% Pass (23rd), 8.3% Rush (8th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (16th), 10.6% Rush (29th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (30th), -6.8% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs was crushing teams before entering the bye week, so facing the Houston defense, who is currently giving up the most fantasy points to running backs, means he will maintain his domination. He's a must-start in a fantastic matchup.
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)
Coincidentally, Pierce was also putting together a stretch of awesome performances heading into the bye week. The offense and matchup are both worse than they are for Jacobs, but the volume and workload are similar. Pierce belongs in the top 24 this week, with a top-15 upside if he finds the end zone.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Adams has been a little more volatile this year but his spike weeks have been impressive. He was the WR3 in Week 1 and the WR2 in Week 5. The matchup has been bottom-10 for fantasy receivers but much of that can be attributed to the personnel they've competed against. Adams is firmly in the top 12 this week.
UPDATE: Darren Waller has been ruled out while Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins are both expected to play. Renfrow moves into the top-36 with Hollins is a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Houston has proven to be a stubborn pass defense, that is particularly challenging for quarterbacks, granted they've faced Lawrence, Ryan, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Justin Herbert so it's skewed a little by the quality of the competition. Nonetheless, it could reduce Carr's output, especially if Waller is out. He's still in the top-15 at the position.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Las Vegas is a better matchup for the passing attack but that is not the identity of this football team. Cooks is usually a highly reliable, PPR machine, but his targets have steadily decreased since Week 1 when he received 12, finishing with six in Week 5. He's still a top-30 receiver but his ceiling is capped because of their run-first philosophy.
Davis Mills (QB, HOU)
As described above, the team prefers not to ask much of their passing game. Unfortunately, they are heavy underdogs facing an exploitable pass defense, so there may be an opportunity for Mills to contribute as a streamer.
Injuries:
Darren Waller (hamstring)
Mack Hollins (heel)
Hunter Renfrow (hip)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -5.5
Implied Total: Seahawks (22.5) vs. Chargers (28)
Pace: Seahawks (21st) vs. Chargers (6th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 35.8% Pass (3rd), 3.3% Rush (12th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 24.4% Pass (9th), -12.6% Rush (24th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 16.9% Pass (26th), -4.3% Rush (21st)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (11th), -2.5% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
It was a strange game last week. Seattle led nearly the entire time and neither offense could score touchdowns. The only player to find pay dirt was actually Walker III, who had a nice game with 21 carries and two receptions for 110 scrimmage yards. He played 69% of the offensive snaps, accounted for 21 of the 23 (91.3%) running back carries and was the only RB to receive a target. Seattle does not typically throw to their backfield, evidenced by their 12% market share as a group this season, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. That said, as long as he maintains his workhorse role, the matchup pushes him into the top 20 with top-12 upside.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
It will be interesting to see how Keenan Allen returning to the offense impacts the outrageously high volume of receptions Ekeler has been receiving. The offense rarely attempted deep passes, instead electing to constantly dump the ball off to Ekeler and Joshua Palmer. The matchup is fantastic, locking him in as a top-10 back.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert has been a draft-bust thus far, much of which is being attributed to missing Allen. Hopefully, that is the primary issue, although the offensive line has struggled as well, allowing the third-most QB pressures in the league. The matchup is very favorable, so Herbert should return to at least the top 12, with hopes of finding his stride as a top-five option long-term. He's in the top 10 this week.
Chargers WRs
The receiving corps is a bit of a mess right now. Allen seemed close to returning last week but the Chargers head into their bye week after facing the Seahawks, which may entice them to hold Allen out one more game. In addition, Palmer is in concussion protocol, putting his status in doubt. Mike Williams is the one consistency here, who slots in as a top-15 receiver in a great matchup, while we wait to find out about the other two.
UPDATE: Palmer has been ruled out, and Allen will be active. Williams remains a top-20 receiver while Allen is a risky top-36 option.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
Everett received seven targets, but as discussed above, the depth of those targets was very low, resulting in five catches for 29 yards. If Allen is able to return, the volume is likely to trend downward but in a plus matchup, he's still a streaming option with upside.
UPDATE: Donald Parham Jr. has been ruled out, reducing the competition for Everett, who jumps into the top-12 with additional upside if Allen misses.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
It was a long day for Smith, dealing with QB pressure of his own that led to five sacks. He never got comfortable and the offense failed to finish drives, kicking four field goals. The matchup is about average, creating an opportunity for the passing attack to do more damage in this one. With bye weeks, what we've seen on the year, and the matchup, Smith is still a top-12 option.
Seahawks WRs
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still combined for 12 targets, but oddly Noah Fant had seven of his own. As referenced, there were no passing touchdowns thrown, limiting the ceiling for both players. It was a bad week for them and Smith, all of whom you can expect more from against the Chargers, vaulting these two back into the top 15.
UPDATE: Tyler Lockett will play, he battled through a hip injury last week but it could impact his performance if he's at less than full health.
Injuries:
Keenan Allen (hamstring)
Joshua Kelley (knee)
Joshua Palmer (concussion)
Tyler Lockett (hamstring)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Chiefs -2.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (25.25) vs. 49ers (23.25)
Pace: Chiefs (18th) vs. 49ers (28th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 36.2% Pass (2nd), -8.3% Rush (19th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 25.3% Pass (7th), -13.0% Rush (26th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 17.6% Pass (28th), -8.1% Rush (13th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -13.2% Pass (7th), -23.1% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Quarterbacks have been finding success in fantasy against Kansas City, they are currently the third-best matchup at the position and rank in the bottom five in pass DVOA. Garoppolo was forced to air it out more last week due to the unexpected negative game script, finishing with nearly 300 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. They'll likely find themselves trailing for the better part of this week as well, giving him streaming value with top-12 upside.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
The additional yardage and volume were great news for Kittle, who had his best game of the year with eight catches for 83 yards. He hit double-digit targets for the first time, offering a glimmer of hope for fantasy managers that he may just return to the top-five tight end he once was. That's where he finds himself this week, making him a must-start.
49ers WRs
Just like Kittle, both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk saw 10-plus targets, although it was Aiyuk who hauled in both of Garoppolo's touchdown passes. It's unlikely Aiyuk has a better game the rest of the season than this one but he moves into the top 30 given the matchup, with Samuel in the top 15.
Matchups We Hate:
Chiefs RBs
The matchup was very bad last week and it only gets more difficult this week. The split in this backfield continued last week, Jerick McKinnon had five touches on 29 offensive snaps, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had nine touches on 28 offensive snaps, and Isaih Pacheco had two touches on 10 offensive snaps. All three are best avoided again this week.
Chiefs WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster popped against the Bills with five catches for 113 yards and a score, although most of that came from his 42-yard touchdown run. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a no-show and Mecole Hardman didn't do much either. With such a large amount of targets going to Kelce, it's hard to rely on any of these receivers. The Chiefs should need to pass to keep up with the 49ers, which creates an opportunity for Smith-Schuster as a boom-bust flex play.
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes produced a rare multi-interception game, thanks in large part to the exceptional talent and play-calling of the Buffalo defense. San Francisco is another well-coached unit but Mahomes will be just fine for fantasy, remaining a top-five option with two stud QBs on a bye.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce demonstrated his consistency by scoring over 15 fantasy points without a touchdown. Only two tight ends possess that ability, and he's one of them.
49ers RBs
The 49ers made the move for McCaffrey, which is a clear inditement of the confidence they have in their current backs. It's unclear as of yet, whether he'll suit up against the Chiefs or if Jeff Wilson Jr. will get one final start. There would be a lot of variables for McCaffrey but if he plays, he's probably in your lineup as a top-36 back with massive upside. Otherwise, Wilson slots in as a top-36 back with a low floor after what we saw last week in a negative game script.
UPDATE: McCaffrey is active and will play, head coach Kyle Shanahan has reportedly installed a package of plays for him, which could mean he gets enough touches to be viable for fantasy. He still possesses risk but is sounding more like a top-24 back with upside now.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -0.5
Implied Total: Jets (19.5) vs. Broncos (20)
Pace: Jets (1st) vs. Broncos (24th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -1.1% Pass (25th), 3.1% Rush (13th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: -0.1% Pass (24th), -15.1% Rush (27th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 6.3% Pass (15th), -8.9% Rush (12th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: -28.1% Pass (1st), -5.4% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
The Jets have clearly found their identity, rushing the ball about 30 times per game since Zach Wilson returned while progressively decreasing their passing attempts from 36 in Week 4, to 21 in Week 5, and 18 last week. Granted, they won all three of those games and led in most of them but there is no reason to expect a different outcome against Denver. Furthermore, the Broncos are extremely difficult to pass against, so it sets up perfectly for another huge game from Hall. He had over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown again, making him a top-15 back this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Jets Passing Attack
The matchup is a nightmare for Wilson and company, whose throw rate continues to decline. Corey Davis is a potential flex play in a full-PPR format, otherwise, it's best to bench everyone else involved.
UPDATE: Elijah Moore will be inactive due to his trade request and tensions with the team. It concentrates the minimal volume, adding a little more opportunity for Davis and Garrett Wilson. You would expect Patrick Surtain II to be on Davis because he's more proven but as a slot receiver, that's not a guarantee.
Broncos RBs
In an already lackluster running game, we are now forced to accept that we cannot be certain as to who the lead back is. Melvin Gordon was surprisingly benched in favor of Latavius Murray, then head coach Nathaniel Hackett named Gordon the starter for this week. They were only able to generate 98 rushing yards in a soft matchup, so expecting anything significant this week seems foolish. They're both touchdown-dependent flex plays, with minimal upside.
Broncos Passing Attack
The Jets' defense is quickly earning a reputation as a formidable unit, wreaking havoc on Rodgers as their latest victim last week. Wilson is injured, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy aren't receiving a high enough target share, and the impressive performance from rookie Greg Dulcich is an indication of his potential for future matchups, not this one. Sutton and Jeudy are still flex options because of their talent but without a healthy quarterback or a competent offense, plus Sauce Gardiner guarding one of them, likely Sutton, their ceiling is much lower.
UPDATE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out, which means Brett Rypien will get the ball, offering a downgrade to all the receiving options.
Other Matchups:
None
Injuries:
Russell Wilson (hamstring)
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -7.0
Implied Total: Steelers (18.75) vs. Dolphins (25.75)
Pace: Steelers (9th) vs. Dolphins (26th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (20th), -21.4% Rush (31st)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 32.8% Pass (5th), -4.6% Rush (15th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (17th), -10.1% Rush (10th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (31st), -13.4% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Dolphins WRs
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle received 10-plus targets each yet again, boosting their combined share to 53.3% on the year, which includes the game Waddle barely played. Health remains an issue for Waddle, who suffered a shoulder injury. Hill currently leads the league in yards per route run and receiving yards, he's second in receptions, and eighth in yards after the catch. As if that weren't enough, the Steelers are currently giving up the most fantasy points to wideouts. He's a must-start, Waddle, on the other hand, is a top-15 receiver when healthy, dropping to more of a top-24 option under the current circumstances.
UPDATE: Jaylen Waddle is active and will play.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa is set to make his return, which is great news for the offense as a whole. Pittsburgh is a little better against quarterbacks but still the seventh-best matchup, making this a perfect spot for him to come in and have a nice game. There will be some concern about him taking hits, utilizing his rushing ability, and staying in the pocket long enough for Hill and Waddle to get open, but he's a top-12 quarterback.
Matchups We Hate:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Pittsburgh was handing the ball off to everybody in this one, including two different quarterbacks, four different receivers, and two different running backs. Harris already had more than enough competition with Jaylen Warren, never mind all these ancillary weapons stealing carries. Thankfully, he received three targets, one of which he turned into a short touchdown grab, totaling 49 yards from scrimmage on the day. Attacking Miami on the ground is far more difficult, pushing Harris outside the top 24, even with bye weeks.
Other Matchups:
Steelers WRs
Kenny Pickett suffered a concussion in their win over the Buccaneers, leading to the return of Mitch Trubisky. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens took a backseat to Chase Claypool in this one, who caught all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. It makes it more difficult to trust any member of this receiving corps if all three are sharing work. The matchup is great, the Dolphins give up the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers so Johnson slots in as a top-36 option, with Claypool next in line if Trubisky is at the helm, or Pickens if Pickett can play.
UPDATE: Kenny Pickett has cleared the concussion protocol and is active for Sunday night's game.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
Unfortunately, Miami got behind in the second quarter and trailed the rest of the game, forcing them to air it out. Mostert still accounted for 14 of the 17 (82.4%) running back carries and saw two targets but the offense struggled and both touchdowns went to tight end Mike Gesicki. He also still played on 62% of the offensive snaps. The matchup is a bit better than average and the offense gets an upgrade with Tagovailoa back, keeping Mostert in the top 24.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
As mentioned above, Gesicki found pay dirt twice, finishing with seven targets. His next highest total on the year was four, so it will be interesting to see if this level of usage continues. He's always a threat to score in the red zone, making him a streaming candidate in this matchup.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Freiermuith practiced in full on Wednesday and Thursday, likely indicating he will make his return this week. He finished with seven catches for 85 yards in his last full game, meaning he warrants consideration as a streamer in a great matchup.
UPDATE: Pat Freiermuth has cleared the concussion protocol and will play.
Injuries:
Pat Freiermuth (concussion)
Kenny Pickett (concussion)
Jaylen Waddle (shoulder)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -8.0
Implied Total: Bears (16) vs. Patriots (24)
Pace: Bears (23rd) vs. Patriots (31st)
Bears Off. DVOA: -24.6% Pass (31st), -10.1% Rush (22nd)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 8.8% Pass (18th), 1.3% Rush (14th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 6.1% Pass (14th), 3.0% Rush (27th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -16.8% Pass (6th), 1.7% Rush (26th)
Matchups We Love:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
The Patriots pounded the Browns from start to finish, and next up is the lowly Bears. Stevenson accounted for 19 of the 24 (79.1%) running back carries for 76 yards and two scores, adding four catches for 15 yards. Damien Harris tested his hamstring out before the game and could not go, so it's possible he suits up for this one, but regardless Stevenson should see plenty of work and have another great game. He's a top-15 back with Harris and a top-10 back if he misses.
UPDATE: Damien Harris practiced in full and is expected to play. He enters a great matchup, although he will likely be behind Stevenson given this is his first game back from injury, making him a top-36 back with top-24 upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Bears Passing Attack
The Falcons and Jets are the latest teams to abandon their passing game, but the Bears are the originators of this strategy. They did increase their attempts to 27, which led to 14 completions and even a passing touchdown. Additionally, Darnell Mooney had 12 targets finishing with 7 catches for 68 yards, although it was Dante Pettis who stole the show on a 40-yard touchdown grab he took the house. Unfortunately, New England presents a much greater challenge, crushing their optimism for this week. Mooney would be a desperation flex play with a low floor.
Other Matchups:
Bears RBs
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are becoming one of many timeshares in the NFL. It's clear Montgomery is still the starter, but the coaches keep praising Herbert, stating they want him more involved. The matchup is actually alright for running backs but the game script is likely to force Montgomery off the field, making it difficult to trust the workload for either back. With fewer players available this week, Montgomery and Herbert are in the top 36 but expectations need to be held in check.
Patriots WRs
Tyquan Thornton made his mark in his second NFL game, finding the end zone on the ground and through the air. He's rapidly moving up the depth chart, playing the third most snaps, as a starter behind Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker. Chicago is easier to run on than pass against, so their volume could be reduced, especially with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith stealing targets. Meyers remains the preferred option as a top-36 receiver, while Parker and Thornton are flex considerations.
UPDATE: Kendrick Bourne has been ruled out while Nelson Agholor is questionable to play.
Injuries:
Mac Jones (ankle)
Ty Montgomery (ankle)
Damien Harris (hamstring)
Nelson Agholor (hamstring)
UPDATE: Mac Jones will get be active and get the start on Monday.
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