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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 7 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
We're back for the seventh edition of our Unlikely Aces series in 2026. The pitching landscape has been a disaster this year. There have been so many injuries. To be honest, it feels much worse than other seasons. Maybe that's only because both Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet are sidelined.
Whatever the case may be, one thing is for certain: it's never been more important to find "Unlikely Aces," that is, pitchers who exceed expectations, providing you with much-needed high-end production.
In this column, we're going to highlight three starters who have surprisingly done much better than expected. Keep reading as we break down Davis Martin, Bryce Elder, and Foster Griffin. Note: Any mention of roster percentages is based on Yahoo! leagues.
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Davis Martin, SP, Chicago White Sox
82% Rostered
Davis Martin is off to a hot start and its looking to continue to put up career best numbers. Let's see what he's doing differently than last year that could be contributing to his new found success. pic.twitter.com/Lbyo1NOm5n
— Rollin Payton Tyler (@PTPitching) May 12, 2026
Davis Martin has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 MLB season so far. The 29-year-old righty has a 1.62 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 5.2% walk rate in 50 innings. This works out to a 21.9 K-BB%, which is a significant improvement from his previous career-high (10.9 K-BB%).
While his swinging-strike rate has jumped from 9.5% to 12.0%, he's put up rates like this before, so what has changed?
A major reason he's having so much more success this year is his pitch usage. Less 4-seam fastballs and more of pretty much everything else. Flattening the usage across all pitch types makes it difficult to fall into a predictable pattern. (look at 3-2 where its basically random) pic.twitter.com/vTmRV5JQvT
— Rollin Payton Tyler (@PTPitching) May 12, 2026
The biggest difference is that Martin's slider has been absolutely dominant, allowing only .120 xwOBA while inducing a 53.3% whiff rate. This has allowed Martin to rack up strikeouts at a rate he's never previously produced.
With that said, Martin's definitely ripe for regression. His 3.08 SIERA is much higher than his 1.62 ERA. His 87.6% left-on-base rate is unsustainable.
But at the same time, a 3.08 SIERA is quite good. It's obvious that Martin won't be a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher all year, but he's going to provide value. The White Sox are a rebuilding team, so they're going to give him all the innings he can handle. What's even more interesting is that there's a chance that Martin could get moved at the deadline to a contender.
That's the type of improvement in team context that could help this "Unlikely Ace" maintain value all year long.
Verdict: Martin is going to regress at some point, but he's still worth holding because he can still provide value as a backend starter in your rotation. In fact, it may be a good idea to try to buy high on Martin. Your league mate is likely skeptical about Martin keeping this up. Perhaps you can trade for him at a reduced cost compared to his likely rest-of-season value.
Bryce Elder, SP, Atlanta Braves
81% Rostered
Bryce Elder's 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/NSCIYx9uAh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2026
For years, Bryce Elder was merely the fill-in starter for the Braves. He'd maybe get into a rhythm for a few starts, but then he'd fizzle out and get sent back down to the minors. But things are different so far this year, as Elder has registered a 1.81 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate. Elder's K% is by far a career-high.
The 27-year-old has a 10.3% swinging-strike rate, which isn't even a career-high, so what's gotten into him this season?
Regression will hit for Atlanta Braves' starting pitcher Bryce Elder, but it's a matter of how much and when. Elder threw a quality start (6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 9 SO) across 93 pitches on Tuesday. He boasted an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and a 33% ball rate. For context,… pic.twitter.com/GIkNDo1LJs
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) May 6, 2026
One thing that sticks out to me about Elder is that even though he's definitely not a sub-2.00 ERA type of pitcher, his 3.83 SIERA is still rock-solid. We're seeing Elder do a great job limiting hard contact, as highlighted by a .208 expected batting average.
Looking at the pitch mix, Elder has significantly reduced his sinker usage, dropping it from 42.1% to 23.0%. His changeup has a lot less spin on it, which has yielded better results, including a 35.5% whiff rate, which is a major increase from 17.3% last season.
The Braves look like World Series contenders this year, so Elder is likely to provide solid value all year long.
Verdict: Elder is similar to Martin in that he's significantly outperforming expectations. The difference here is that Martin plays on a rebuilding team, but Elder is already on a contender. My advice is to see if you can trade for Elder as you try to swipe him from an unsuspecting league mate that just thinks this is a hot start. It's likely that we're going to see a career year from Elder, given the improvements in strikeout rate.
Foster Griffin, SP, Washington Nationals
76% Rostered
Washington Nationals' starting pitcher Foster Griffin set a career high in whiffs (17) on Friday against the Marlins. Griffin had a 16.5% swinging-strike rate and a 28% ball rate on Friday. He had a 37% ball rate and 9.8% swinging-strike rate throughout his MLB career before… pic.twitter.com/lqrugsB9mx
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) May 9, 2026
Foster Griffin was a pitcher I was targeting this season. He had solid numbers in Japan. Playing for a rebuilding Nationals team, I thought Griffin would eat innings and could provide decent ratios. Basically, a nice streamer to play in the right matchup.
Foster Griffin looks like a nice sleeper.
Three nice seasons in Japan:
121.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 5.9 BB%, 2.44 xFIP
116.2 IP, 26.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 1.93 xFIP
78.0 IP, 25.1 BB%, 5.9 BB%, 2.35 xFIPOOPSY:
157 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 20.3 K%, 6.9 BB%— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) January 23, 2026
But what Griffin has done has exceeded my wildest expectations. He's putting up a 2.12 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with a 22.1% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate.
Like Elder, Griffin has a respectable 3.93 SIERA, so it's not all just smoke and mirrors here.
What's even more intriguing is that it appears that Griffin is getting better as the season progresses. His two starts with 8+ strikeouts came in the last three outings. His sweeper has been the money pitch, inducing a 35.9% whiff rate.
Like Martin, Griffin is in a position where he could be moved at the deadline. At 30 years old, he doesn't fit into the timeline of the Nationals' young players. By the time they're ready to contend, there's a chance that Griffin could be past his prime.
With that in mind, there's a chance that the Nationals could try to get some assets for Griffin, shipping him off to a contending team.
Verdict: As with the other pitchers on this list, I'd be looking to trade for Griffin. Your league mates are going to try to sell high, but even their perceived sell-high price may not be enough for what Griffin has done. While he's going to regress, I'm confident that he'll provide value all year long, especially once he's likely traded to a contender at the deadline. Enjoy the ride with this terrific signing by the Nationals, who stole him from the NPB this offseason.
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