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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 3 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 8/20/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We tallied a nice profit last weekend with five winners and a parlay. It would've been even better if Jamie Vardy didn't have a goal taken off him by an opposing defender or if West Ham converted their second-half penalty. But, we're back in the black on the season so we can't grumble. That being said, we're still taking things a bit slower to start the season with smaller stakes on most games.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 9-11
- Total picks: 9-9-1
- Parlays: 1-1
- ROI: 114.61% (+1.68 units)
Saturday, August 20th, 2022
Wolves (+766) at Tottenham Hotspur (-261) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 0 Wolves
Tottenham picked up a controversial point at Chelsea on Sunday in a game in which they trailed twice and that saw both Head Coaches sent off at the final whistle. They were outplayed for the entire game and Chelsea's profligacy kept them alive but they shouldn't have any issues at home against weaker opposition here.
Wolves picked up their first point of the season, in a goalless draw at home to Fulham. Goalkeeper Jose Sa was the hero, saving a late penalty but it looks like being another season where goals are hard to come by.
Betting pick: To win to nil - Tottenham (+128) 0.5 units
Wolves just don't look enough of a threat to trouble the Tottenham defense and after failing to score in 16 games last season (losing 13 of those games), it could turn out to be a long afternoon for the traveling fans.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
Son has yet to get off the mark this season and has failed to score in seven EPL games against Wolves. I expect him to end both those stats this weekend but even if he doesn't, he can still tally a clean sheet as a midfielder and is always a likely creator of goals too.
Aston Villa (+198) at Crystal Palace (+160) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 0 Aston Villa
Crystal Palace got an admirable point at Liverpool on Monday and having led 1-0 when Liverpool were reduced to ten men, will probably be disappointed they didn't win. They only lost four games at home last season and it's their home form that will determine if they are a top-10 contender or not this season.
Aston Villa beat Everton last Saturday and even after two games, they look a completely different team at home than they do away. Villa's insistence on playing one up front away doesn't seem to work given their 11 away defeats last season (fourth most), especially when you see how effective they can be with two strikers on the pitch at home.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Crystal Palace to win (+162) 0.5 units
Despite losing this fixture last season, Crystal Palace should get their first win of the season on Saturday. They looked solid on Monday and a threat going forward, while Villa had to eek out a 2-1 win at home to a poor Everton team. Villa's away loss on the opening weekend was more telling as to what to expect from them.
Player to watch: Wilfried Zaha
Last season's top scorer gave Palace the lead at Anfield, playing as a central striker. He's generally deployed on the wing and his runs from deep and wide should cause the Villa defense (that's dealing with injuries) trouble all game.
Nottingham Forest (+325) at Everton (-103) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest
Everton comes into the weekend without a point following their 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa. I'm still not convinced they have enough goals in the team to avoid relegation but they have bolstered their backline. They'll need to win home games like this if they are to beat the drop.
Forest got their first EPL win in over 20 years last Sunday, beating West Ham United 1-0. In truth, West Ham will still be wondering how they didn't get at least a point from the game and despite their heavy investment in new players, Forest will still need to score more freely if they are to stay in the Premier League.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Nottingham Forest (+207) 0.5 units
I still struggle to see how Everton will score more than one goal every game. Last weekend, they looked threatening from set pieces but that was about it and the goal they scored was an own goal. I'm not convinced Forest will win but I certainly see them taking something from the game.
Player to watch: Taiwo Awoniyi
Awoniyi scored Forest's goal last weekend, although he didn't know much about it. He looked like a threat in the game but it remains to be seen if he has enough goals in him to be a deciding factor in Forest's fate this season.
Brentford (+201) at Fulham (+148) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 1 Brentford
Fulham remains unbeaten following their second draw of the season and will seek to keep that record intact at home to near-neighbors Brentford. They could easily be sat on six points rather than the two they have and will need to turn those draws into wins as the season goes on.
Brentford whomped Manchester United 4-0 last weekend. As good as Brentford were, it was as much down to Manchester United's incompetence and I doubt Fulham will be so easy to play against. I expect a tight game but I see Brentford coming up just short.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-130) 1 unit
Mitrovic's missed penalty prevented him from making it three goals in two games as he looks to prove his Premier League credentials. While Brentford have scored six goals in their two games and looks like they carry a threat on the counter-attack, so I expect both sides to score here.
Player to watch: Aleksander Mitrovic
Mitrovic has looked like a Premier League goalscorer this season and his form will need to continue if Fulham are to stay up at the third time of asking. His brace against Liverpool on the opening weekend should fill him with confidence, especially at home when Fulham will be expected to press for a win more.
Southampton (+315) at Leicester City (-116) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 1 Southampton
Leicester have four goals but only one point to show for it as their 2-2 draw at home to Brentford was followed by a 4-2 loss at Arsenal. As unlucky as they were on the opening weekend, the 4-2 scoreline last week actually flattered them but they at least carry a significant goal threat.
Southampton battled back from 2-0 down to draw with Leeds United but it's now one point and six goals conceded from their two games. They don't appear to have strengthened their squad and I'm still not convinced they will be able to avoid relegation this season without some additions.
Betting pick: Both Teams To Score/Total Goals - Yes & over 2.5 (-104) 1 unit
I don't have any faith in Leicester defensively to warrant picking them to win at minus odds. But I do think they will score and concede while Southampton's defense looks even shakier. I can see this game having goals and it could be similar to last season's encounters between these two (2-2 and 4-1).
Player to watch: James Maddison
Maddison scored last weekend and scored in both games against Southampton last season. He's got an outside chance to make the England World Cup squad and will need to stay healthy and maintain his early season form if he is to make the trip to Qatar.
Arsenal (-223) at Bournemouth (+681) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 2 Arsenal
Bournemouth were unsurprisingly comprehensively beaten at Manchester City 4-0 last weekend and plays Liverpool next weekend, so couldn't have had a much harder start to the season. Their opening weekend win at least gives them a platform and they certainly won't be pushovers at home this weekend.
Arsenal are one of two teams with a 100% record after two games and the addition of Gabriel Jesus looks like being one of the best signings of the season. Their opening weekend 2-0 away win at Crystal Palace is arguably a better result than the 4-2 win at home to Leicester last week and this is another potential banana skin that will tell us about their top-four credentials.
Betting pick: Total corners taken - Under 10 (+110) 0.5 units
I'm not confident with the result or goals in this game but the corners market appeals. Arsenal's two games this season have both had eight corners while last season, their games averaged 10 corners a game. Bournemouth have only taken six corners in their two games and the 16 against them is skewed by Manchester City's 11 last weekend.
Player to watch: Martin Odegaard
While Arsenal's attacking trio of Jesus, Saka and Martinelli have all scored and looked dangerous, new captain Odegaard hasn't quite matched the early form of his colleagues. There's no doubting his talents and it'll be away games like this in which he will need to shine if Arsenal are going to be serious top-four contenders.
Sunday, August 21st, 2022
Chelsea (+181) at Leeds United (+508) - 9:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Chelsea
Leeds United have carried their late season form from last year into the new campaign and will be disappointed they don't have six points from their two games. Patrick Bamford had to go off with an injury last weekend but he could return this week and will give Leeds a huge boost if he is fit enough to play.
Chelsea will feel aggrieved to have not won last weekend against Tottenham and they arguably looked better in their 2-2 draw than they did when beating Everton 1-0 on the opening weekend. Their away form was better than at home last season but this game will be a tough test for them and not as easy as last season's visit which they won 3-0 having played against ten-men for more than an hour.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+121) 0.5 units
This will be a good test for both teams and Leeds are much more solid defensively under Jesse Marsch. I expect this to be a tight game and Chelsea tends to keep things tight away from home (11 goals conceded away last season). But Chelsea don't look like a team filled with goals so I'm backing a low-scoring affair.
Player to watch: Reece James
Chelsea's wing-back played on the right side of a back three for much of last weekend's game. When he moved back into a wing-back position, he scored and he would've had an assist if it wasn't for Kai Havertz missing the target from six yards. He continues to be a threat from open play and set pieces.
Brighton (+225) at West Ham United (+134) at - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 -1 Brighton
West Ham missed a penalty, hit the woodwork twice and had a goal disallowed by VAR last weekend, en route to losing 1-0 at Nottingham Forest. I don't see how their luck can stay that bad two weeks running so they should be able to get their first goal(s) and point(s) of the season.
Brighton followed up their win at Manchester United with a goalless draw at home to Newcastle United. While they do play attractive football, goals still look difficult to come by and although I think they can find a route to goal, I'm not sure they'll be able to maintain their unbeaten start to the season.
Betting pick: Moneyline - West Ham United (+134) 0.5 units
West Ham are the only team without a goal in the league and commences their Europa Conference campaign on Thursday night. I expect a very different side to start Thursday's game than on Sunday and they'll be desperate to get their league season up and running with a home win here.
Player to watch: Michail Antonio
West Ham have been too reliant on Antonio as their only recognizable striker for some time but the Summer signing of Gianluca Scamacca gives them some competition up front. Antonio will be keen to get on the scoresheet to avoid losing his place in the starting XI moving forward.
Manchester City (-264) at Newcastle United (+826) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle 0 - 2 Manchester City
Newcastle United are one of two teams yet to concede this season (the other being Manchester City) and although they haven't spent huge sums of money despite being the World's richest club, they look a much better side than the one that started last season without a win until Matchweek 15.
Manchester City cruised to a 4-0 win last weekend at home to Bournemouth and have started the season in imperious form. It's tough to see them losing a game right now but I do expect Newcastle to make things difficult for them this weekend.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Manchester City under 2.5 goals & Newcastle United under 1.5 goals (-110) 1 unit
Since January o1st, Newcastle have played ten EPL games at home and haven't conceded more than once in any of them (including five clean sheets). They've become tough to beat at home. This will be their biggest challenge in that timeframe and while I expect an away win, I don't foresee it being a walkover.
Player to watch: Joao Cancelo
Haaland and de Bruyne will be popular plays in DFS and FPL this weekend but Cancelo has the fourth most shot-creating actions (6) on the team this season and is capable of a big points haul in fantasy with the prospect of a clean sheet as well as an assist (seven last season).
Monday, August 22nd, 2022
Liverpool (-159) at Manchester United (+457) at - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 3 Liverpool
There's not much to say about Manchester United that hasn't been written. We've reached the point where even Elon Musk is mocking them on Twitter and having watched their two games, even I'm almost feeling sorry for them at this point.
While Liverpool's start to the season hasn't been as bad as their Monday night opponents, being winless after two games was not in the script. Even at this early stage, they can't afford to give Manchester City a six-point advantage and will be desperate to pick up their first win of the season against their bitter rivals.
Betting pick: To score anytime - Mo Salah (-110) 0.5 units
Salah scored five goals in the two meetings between these sides last season and with new signing Darwin Nunez suspended following his headbutt last weekend, the Egyptian superstar will need to carry Liverpool's biggest goal threat again this week.
Player to watch: Mo Salah
As mentioned, Salah's record against Manchester United is remarkable. As well as the five goals, he had an assist in both games last season and has scored or created nine goals in his last five EPL games against Monday's opponent.
Parlays
Moneyline: Crystal Palace & Leicester City to win (+394) 1 unit
Both teams to score: Fulham/Brentford, Everton/Nottingham Forest & Leeds United/Chelsea (+536) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
