EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchweek 37: English Premier League

May 19, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 37 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 05/20/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We've reached the penultimate week of the season and lots can be decided this weekend. Manchester City should be crowned champions, one or two teams could be joining Southampton in the Championship next season while the top-4 might be settled before the final gameweek of the season. For FPL purposes, four teams have an extra game in midweek making it a huge gameweek that's set to decide many fantasy leagues.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Tottenham (-115) vs. Brentford (+290) - 07:30 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 Brentford

Tottenham's defeat at Aston Villa has left them facing the possibility of having no European football next season. They have won six of their last eight home games but only five teams have conceded more than Tottenham this season. Brentford's 19 points away from home is the fewest among teams in the top half and only five of those points have come from the eight games against the league's top 10.

Tottenham's Harry Kane remains their one must-start option. Only Erling Haaland (266) has scored more points than Kane (240), who has a goal involvement in five consecutive games scoring 40 points in the process. Son Heung-min has blanked in the last two games after bagging four goals and one assist in his previous five games while Pedro Porro has a goal involvement in each of his last two home games. Both are decent options.

Brentford's Ivan Toney has been suspended for eight months for betting on football games and the timing seems bizarre to say the least. That should put the spotlight on Bryan Mbeumo in Brentford's attack and he's an interesting option with three goal involvements in his last five games. But he's only had a goal involvement in three of his 18 away games this season so there are likely better options.

Bournemouth (+475) vs. Manchester United (-205) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Manchester United

Bournemouth has secured Premier League football again next season and will be keen to end their home campaign by upsetting one of the big teams. For Manchester United, they need to win in order to keep Liverpool at bay and secure a top-4 finish and Champions League football next season. Their away record against top-10 teams is dreadful (four points from nine games) but against bottom-half teams, they've picked up 20 points (nine games).

Bournemouth lack any FPL appeal this week although Sam Billing and Dominic Solanke are their most likely points scorers. For United, so much depends on the fitness of Marcus Rashford. Despite being a major doubt for this game, he's returned to training and will be a huge boost to the 38% of FPL managers who roster him for this double gameweek. Assuming he is declared fit for Saturday's game, he'll be a very popular captain choice.

With two games this week, starting three United players is pretty crucial and they have no shortage of options. Bruno Fernandes and Christian Eriksen are both solid options especially given their set-piece taking and facing the side that's conceded more goals from set plays (21) than anyone else. The downside is no team has scored fewer set-piece goals (four) than Manchester United. If you want to go down the defensive route too, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and David De Gea are all fine plays.

Look who it is 👀

📸 Marcus Rashford is pictured back in training for Manchester United 👹pic.twitter.com/TyqsZZe7my

— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) May 17, 2023

Fulham (+140) vs. Crystal Palace (+190) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 0 Crystal Palace

Despite having nothing tangible to play for, Fulham won their last two games, albeit against the current bottom two sides in the league table. Crystal Palace also sits in mid-table with nothing meaningful on the line. They've lost their last two away games, failing to score in both and that's something they've experienced a total of nine times on the road (18 games).

Generally, in games like this late in the season, it'll be a low-scoring boring affair or a high-scoring game-of-the-season contender. My money is on the prior and with four teams having two games this week, fading this game seems like a smart play, although there is some appeal which is mentioned later in the article.

Liverpool (-205) vs. Aston Villa (+475) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Liverpool won their seventh consecutive league game last time out, dispatching Leicester City with ease and they will likely need to make it nine straight wins to end the season if they have any chance of a top-4 finish. Villa's 2-1 win against Tottenham keeps their European qualification alive and an upset victory would guarantee a top-eight finish this season.

Mo Salah is once again set to be the leading points-scoring midfielder this season and he's tallied six goals and three assists during their seven-game winning streak, totaling 63 points. Trent Alexander-Arnold has 50 points during the winning run and is also a fine play if you need to round off your lineup with a couple of single-game options.

Wolves (+170) vs. Everton (+160) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 2 Everton

Wolves come into this weekend having won their last four home games without conceding a goal. But with safety assured and nothing on the line, they've shown once before against Brighton that they may take their foot off the gas. Everton could guarantee their own safety this weekend with a win and results going their way and they've only lost one of their last six away games.

While I do believe there may be goals in this game, it's hard to justify starting any player from either team. Dwight McNeil scored two and assisted two in their last away game and he has six goal involvements in his last six games. At £5.1M, he does make a viable option if you need a cheaper option for one of the more expensive double gameweek players.

Nottingham Forest (+450) vs. Arsenal (-180) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Arsenal

Nottingham Forest could secure their safety this weekend but could also find themselves in the relegation zone heading into the final week of the season. They've only lost two of their last 14 home games but they both came against sides in the current top-4. Arsenal's slim title hopes were ended last weekend in their defeat to Brighton and anything but a victory will give City the crown without having to kick a ball.

Arsenal's defense has been leaky enough that there is some value in rostering their opponents but only Morgan Gibbs-White appeals here. The Forest midfielder has six goal involvements in his last five games, totaling 37 points.

Arsenal has been an easy triple-stack throughout the season but with just the one game this week, fading them seems a decent idea. Gabriel Martinelli is out for the season following the injury he sustained last weekend while Bukayo Saka has gone four games without a goal involvement and Gabriel Jesus has just one goal in five games. Martin Ødegaard would be the one Arsenal player I'd look at rostering this weekend.

The most #FPL points of an @Arsenal player since 2016/17!

How good has Martin Odegaard been for your #FPL team? 🙌 pic.twitter.com/GIk2Nxeqsj

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 15, 2023

Sunday, May 21, 2023

West Ham United (+135) vs. Leeds United (+185) - 08:30 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Leeds United

West Ham is all but assured Premier League football next season so their focus can turn to their Europa Conference League final. They've won five of their eight home games against bottom-half teams this season. Leeds picked up a credible point against Newcastle last weekend but it could've been much more. They've only taken two points from their last seven games, conceding 22 goals in the process.

The fact West Ham rested so many of their top players last weekend and will likely do the same this weekend makes me fine with fading them entirely this week. I don't really want anything to do with Leeds either so I'll just ignore this game from an FPL standpoint this week.

Brighton (-450) vs. Southampton (+1000) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 0 Southampton

Brighton bounced back from their shock loss against Everton with a stunning win at Arsenal, then slumped to another heavy defeat at Newcastle on Thursday. A sixth-placed finish is still on the cards though. Southampton went down with the wimpiest of whimpers last week and although every year we tend to see a team get relegated and then play with freedom and win their next game, Southampton doesn't have that look about them and a 12th game without a win is on the horizon.

Brighton has been an FPL goldmine this season. Given their double gameweek, you will want to ensure you are rostering three of their players this week. Their midweek game comes against Manchester City but they will have likely been confirmed as champions by then so dare I say, they could rest a few key players then.

Of the Brighton players, there is one forward I like as an unloved nugget that's at the end of this article. Otherwise, the players I'd roster in order of preference are; Alexis Mac Allister, Pascal Groß, Pervis Estupiñán, Kaoru Mitoma, Jason Steele, and Lewis Dunk. Mitoma might seem low but he's only tallied one goal involvement in his last eight games and hasn't looked as threatening lately. Southampton is an easy ignore.

Manchester City (-380) vs. Chelsea (+900) - 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Chelsea

Manchester City could be crowned champions without kicking a ball but a win will secure the title regardless of Arsenal's result on Saturday. They've picked up 40 points from the last 42 available and are on track for a historic treble. Chelsea's disastrous campaign is almost over and they can disappear off into the summer, lick their wounds and work out why spending £300M on players didn't even equate to a top-10 finish.

For FPL purposes, City having two games this week is a huge chance to bag big points. The problem is, who is actually going to play both games? A couple of names (good and bad) feature later on but I'd be focusing my attention on the players that didn't start their midweek Champions League tie. Julián Álvarez, Phil Foden, and my lock of the week is my best guest for a trio most likely to play both games although you probably have to start Erling Haaland if you have him.

Despite having the double gameweek, Chelsea is my least preferred option of the four teams playing twice. Away at both Manchester clubs isn't ideal and when you've been as poor as they have all season, can you really trust any of them? I'm sure they'll score a goal or two this week but I'm not overly keen on trying to work out who it will be.

Monday, May 22, 2023

Newcastle United (-260) vs. Leicester City (+550) - 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 4 - 1 Leicester City

Newcastle is still the favorite to secure a top-4 finish and a win on Monday will guarantee third place regardless of how the weekend results go. Leicester's last two defeats have left them looking like a shambles and 11 goals conceded in their four-game winless run has highlighted the defensive disarray they've been in for most of the season.

Newcastle's early season success was built on clean sheets but they've not kept one in their last 16 games. Kieran Trippier (65.5%) is the most rostered defender in FPL and after going eight games without an assist, he collected two on Thursday. If you've kept him and need a defender to play this week, this game presents a great chance of adding another one or two.

As you should be looking at starting at least nine players with a double gameweek, it's difficult to fit in any Newcastle players despite the matchup. But of all options outside of the double gameweek teams, my favorite defensive option is Trippier, my favorite midfielder option is Ødegaard and my favorite striker is a coin flip between Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. Wilson starting centrally and Isak wide on the left makes Wilson the preferred option.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score).

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks

This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.

Your main focus this week should be on the teams with a double gameweek and rostering a trio of Manchester City, Manchester United, and Brighton players should be the preferred route for FPL managers. That only leaves a couple of roster spots open however so banking on a player with a single match isn't ideal.

Stack the D

If you have a couple of defenders or the goalkeeper spots open, doubling up on Fulham isn't the worst idea. Crystal Palace has failed to score in their last two away games and their goals tend to come in bunches so this could backfire. But Fulham has only lost one of their nine home games against sides in the bottom half of the table and conceded one or none in seven of them.

Unloved Nuggets

If you don't want to roster a Brighton defender or 'keeper and need to fit in some midfielders from the Manchester clubs, Julio Enciso is a striker your should be seeking to target rostering. I mentioned him before last week's game and he rewarded my faith with a goal and now has three goal involvements in his last four starts. He's started only four games this season, all of which have come in Brighton's last six games and he still has six goal involvements.

Avoid the Trap

Kevin De Bruyne led Manchester City to their second Champions League final. And I suspect he sits out at least one of their two games this week. He's started just one of City's last four EPL games (albeit missing one with an illness) and that trend is set to continue. Being on 26.5% of FPL teams makes me believe he'll be heavily captained this week but I just can't see him playing more than 90 minutes over the two games.

For the Watchlist

Curtis Jones has started Liverpool's last nine games and his brace on Monday added to his two assists during this run, giving him a total of 42 points from the nine games. Fitting in Jones this week will be tough given the double gameweek midfield options out there but Liverpool finishes the season against Southampton so Jones is certainly someone worth monitoring as a transfer option next week.

Lock of the Week

The below stat says it all. Riyad Mahrez has been a bit-part player during Manchester City's Champions League campaign but that has meant he's been a regular starter in the league. If that does continue and he is one of the few City players to start both games this week, Mahrez is possibly the most likely to reach double-digit points and could easily be this week's top points scorer.

Since the FIFA World Cup, @Mahrez22 has been in inspired form 🔥

He has more assists during that time than any other #PL player 👏 pic.twitter.com/gdvRkj39mR

— Premier League (@premierleague) May 17, 2023

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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