DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The ZOZO Championship Golf Advice With Kurt Kitayama, Doug Ghim and More (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The ZOZO Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

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• The ZOZO Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
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Field

Field Size: 78
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 4

Last Five Winners of the ZOZO Championship

Expected Cut-Line At the ZOZO

*** No cut

Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo and features a claustrophobic design. Substantial tree-lined intangibles create the need for golfers to move the ball in multiple directions because of the facility's doglegs. Naturally, that puts extra credence in the bucket for accuracy over distance when talking about a 7,100-yard course that doesn't present a "bombs away" appeal. However, length isn't irrelevant if you try to think outside the box when making your model.

The most impactful scoring from a production or avoidance standpoint will come when a driver is in hand. We have five par-four holes that range between 486 to 505 yards that will rank as the most challenging locations for the week. That answer presents nearly a 50% dispersion expectation when faced with the par-four locations, and we also have this intriguing ensemble of par-five setups that I always call 'Goldilocks and The Three Bears' when writing my article yearly for the ZOZO Championship. One is easy, the second is just right, and the third is this 608-yard behemoth, which, on average, yields a 24.6 percent birdie or better rate. That will be one of the lower percentages you will see all season at any stop for a PGA event.

Unfortunately, research starts to go out the window from there because of the lack of trackable data on the course. We can still extrapolate some of the minor details to account for the four-year duration of numbers we will have at the property. Still, I always keep things minimal from an exposure sense when the trifecta of limited data, no-cut contest and smaller field narrative pops to the forefront of the conversation.

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total Driving + Proximity + Putting (30%)

Recent Ball Striking (10%)

Par 70 + Under 7,200 Yards (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Non-Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

GIR (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 35 this week)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I thought it was one of those spots where books/DFS sites got the top three correct and placed them in the proper order.

That factor always generates a worse outright board since locations typically shy away from taking on more exposure than needed when the top of the slate lines up in a clean fashion like we have this week. However, I always try to find out if we can see where the error lies underneath this section in similar spots.

I would play Schauffele, Morikawa, Matsuyama in that exact order (I'd rather drop down than play Theegala) , but let's talk about the subtle mispricing I found in the tier below.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

You are going to see a lot of red in this section. 

I didn't find Sungjae Im or Justin Thomas to be horrible values on the surface of the answer. I do prefer moving up in scale and getting to the big three over using that group. Nonetheless, one of the apparent things here is how DraftKings played it safe by placing long-term successful golfers (who may have shakier recent form) in this tier and calling it a day.

I will deploy the $10,000 section more aggressively for that reason. Still, the mistake I found came from Kurt Kitayama, who graded first in my model over his past 24 rounds for ball striking and landed inside the top three of this contest from each 25-yard bucket between 150 to 175, 175 to 200, and 200+. 

With three somewhat challenging par-five holes and five par-fours measuring between 486 yards and 505 yards, Kitayama's long iron play can be a massive advantage over the field for a tournament that will somewhat mitigate his putting concerns since we should get a lower winning score than we have been accustomed to recently. 

When my model finds the clear-cut fourth choice much below his fellow competitors (especially when we have a solidified top three names), those are the areas in which I like to be ultra-aggressive.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I talked two weeks ago about how something has to give when it comes to Doug Ghim's profile.

The American had been putting on a masterclass in ball striking but had failed to deliver much of an upside total before his second-place showing at the Shriners.

My model placed Ghim behind only Kitayama for recent ball-striking, which adds to this putting surge recently, helping him to place number one in my sheet when adding together Total Driving, Approach and Putting into one category.

If Ghim's success on soft/fast greens can translate in Japan, victory could be around the corner.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

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There was a lot to like in this section. My early lean is that I prefer Fishburn/Vegas, but you can see blue nearly across the board.

$6,000 Options to Consider

I am currently most in on Chandler Phillips and Lee Hodges 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$9,000+ - Kurt Kitayama
$8,000+ - Doug Ghim
$7,000+ - See Above
$6,000+ - See Model

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - Sahith Theegala
$9,000+ - Si Woo Kim (My model would say Zalatoris, but he might be back). I never love playing $9,000+ for Si Woo. 
$8,000+ - Harry Hall
$7,000+ - Brendon Todd/Nick Taylor
$6,000+ - See Model

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