Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 22

August 22, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 22 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents to add and pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of August 23 - August 29th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, August 22nd.

Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

• Chris Flexen, SEA (@ OAK) - Facing Oakland (.313 wOBA, 22.9% K% is an okay matchup for Flexen, who has gone 0-2 against the A's this year, allowing 5 ER in 6 IP on June 2 and 2 ER in 5.1 IP on July 22. But the real prize is how the schedule sets up over the next few weeks. Flexen lines up for two starts next week and while one is against Houston, the second is against the hapless Diamondbacks. And after that, he lines up to face Arizona again, followed by the Royals. That's a tasty setup for fantasy teams coming down the stretch.
• Austin Gomber, COL (@ CHC) - Gomber has struggled since returning from the IL on July 21, posting a 5.46 ERA over 28 IP. But he can still dominate a bad offense, as he showed against Miami (at Coors) on August 7, striking out nine over six shutout innings. He gets another rotten offense this week, facing the Cubs, who have gone 3-17 in August, with a .305 wOBA and 27.8% K% vs LHP.
• J. A. Happ, STL (@ PIT) - I should just run back what I wrote about Happ last week, prior to a start against Pittsburgh. To summarize, Happ is pretty bad unless he's facing the Pirates. In three starts vs Pittsburgh, Happ is 3-0, with a 1.40 ERA. In his other 23 starts, Happ is 6-7, with a 5.88 ERA.
• Josiah Gray, WSH (@ MIA) - He's had a home run problem lately, allowing five taters in his past two starts but hey, at least they were all solo shots. Gray has an excellent start this week, facing a Marlins team with a .298 wOBA and 25.2% K% vs RHP.
• Jake Odorizzi, HOU (@ TEX) - Odorizzi isn't anything special but faces a Texas team that is especially bad, running a .288 wOBA and 24.4% K% vs RHP, and a .257 wOBA and 24.0% K% in the second half.
• Reynaldo Lopez, CHW (vs CHC) - Fair warning, Lopez could be pulled from the rotation at any time, depending on when Carlos Rodon comes off the IL. But right now, he lines up to face a Cubs team that is led by Patrick Wisdom and Rafael Ortega and have a .303 wOBA and 27.5% K% vs RHP in the second half.

Can Adds

• Logan Gilbert, SEA (vs KC) - Gilbert has gotten hammered in his last two starts, allowing a total of 14 ER in 8.2 IP but let's cut the kid some slack; it was Houston and Toronto that did the hammering. He's got the right matchup to get back on track, facing a Royals team that has posted a .295 wOBA against RHP for the season and a .278 wOBA in the second half.
• Brad Keller, KC (@ SEA) - Keller has only allowed a total of 3 ER over 12.2 IP in his last two starts and faces a Seattle team that has a .299 wOBA and 25.6% K% vs RHP this season.
• Tarik Skubal, DET (@ STL) - Skubal struggled over the summer but has turned things around in his three starts in August, going 2-1, with a 1.02 ERA over 17.2 IP. And while his ERA was rough in July (5.86 ERA over five starts), the rookie has really buttoned up his walks since then. Since July 1, Skubal has a 2.7% BB%, compared to a 10.7% BB% prior. The problem is, is that the Cardinals can actually hit lefties pretty well. St. Louis has a .319 wOBA vs LHP this season but has posted a .339 wOBA against them in the second half, albeit with an increased 25.3% K%. There is also the constant danger with Tigers pitching of them getting pulled early due to innings concerns.
• Casey Mize, DET (@ STL) - Mize has the same innings concerns that come with Skubal but the St. Louis bats are more inept against right-handed pitching than they are against left-handers. However, Mize has only completed five innings twice since July 1, giving him a very low floor.
• Tyler Anderson, SEA (vs KC) - The Royals can be sneaky decent against LHP, running a .326 wOBA and 19.3% K% in the second half. But Anderson remains consistently reliable and has a 2.20 ERA over his three starts in August. High floor, low ceiling.
• Ranger Suarez, PHI (vs TB, vs ARI) - One of these starts is not like the other, with Tampa Bay posting a .344 wOBA and 23.0% K% vs LHP in the second half, compared to their season marks of a .307 wOBA and 26.4% K%. And then there is Arizona, who has a .294 wOBA and 24.7% K% vs LHP. But beware, as the Diamondbacks have been much better in the second half vs lefties, posting a .331 wOBA and 21.1% K%.
• J.T. Brubaker, PIT (vs ARI, vs STL) - Brubaker has excellent matchups against Arizona (.294 wOBA, 24.7% K% vs RHP) and St. Louis (.301 wOBA, 21.9% K%) but he hasn't been that great himself, lately. In fact, he's been awful in August, running a 12.86 ERA over 14 IP and three starts.
• Eric Lauer, MIL (@ MIN) - Lauer has been solid in the second half, posting a 2.95 ERA over four starts (and one 3 IP appearance), striking out 22 in 21.1 IP. Let's not get carried away, though, as three of those five games were against the Pirates and the other two came against Kansas City and Washington. But Minnesota is bad (and getting worse)vs RHP, posting a .277 wOBA and 24.8% K% against them in the second half.
• Kyle Freeland, COL (@ LAD) - Freeland has been quietly good in the second half, posting a 3.00 ERA (2.82 FIP) in the second half and the Dodgers offense has been struggling since the break, with a .299 wOBA vs LHP.
• Daniel Lynch, KC (@ HOU, @ SEA) - You don't want any part of Houston (.335 wOBA vs LHP) but Seattle is a pretty good start, as they have just a .299 wOBA and 25.6% K% vs LHP.
• Eli Morgan, CLE (vs TEX, vs BOS) - Much like Lynch above, you only want one of these starts. Boston has a .329 wOBA and 23.5% K% vs RHP, while Texas has a .288 wOBA vs RHP and a .257 wOBA against them in the second half.
• Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (@ CLE) - Foltynewicz has been pretty good over four starts in August, posting a 3.00 ERA but only striking out 14 batters in 24 IP. But to be fair, three of those four starts have come against the Mariners, who have a .299 wOBA against RHP. He'll face another bad team in Cleveland this week, though, with the Guardians running a .303 wOBA vs RHP this season.
• Tyler Gilbert, ARI (@ PIT) - In a instance of going mile high bringing someone back to earth, Gilbert allowed 4 ER in 5 IP at Coors after ptiching a no-hitter the previous start. He's got a great shot to get going again versus the Pirates, who have a .275 wOBA and 23.4% K% vs LHP in the second half.
• Carlos Hernandez, KC (@ SEA) - He got lit up a little by Houston in his last start but Hernandez has a much more ammendable outing lined this week, facing a Mariners team with a .299 wOBA and 25.6% K% vs RHP.
• Luis Patino, TB (@ BAL) - Camden is a hard yard to pitch in but the Orioles only have a .294 wOBA and 24.4% K% vs RHP.
• Erik Fedde, WSH (@ MIA, @ NYM) - Everyone remember the inexplicable Fedde hype-train that was building in the first half? Since the break, Fedde has a 6.25 ERA - but a "better" 4.60 FIP - in seven starts, striking out 28 batters in 31.2 IP. But he has a sneaky little two-step this week, facing the Marlins (.298 wOBA, 25.2% K% vs RHP) and the New York Metropolitans (.300 wOBA, 23.7% K%).
• Kris Bubic, KC (@ SEA) - Outside of a shelling against St. Louis (1.1 IP, 7 ER) on August 15, Bubic has been excellent in the second half, posting a 2.57 ERA in his other six appearances. The Mariners have a .295 wOBA and 26.0% K% vs LHP.
• Drew Rasmussen, TB (@ PHI) - The Phillies are mediocre vs RHP (.305 wOBA, 23.1% K%) and Rasmussen has been pretty good in his two turns in the rotation, allowing just one earned run - albeit in only eight innings.
• Steven Brault, PIT (vs STL) - I know there is some Brault hype building but be aware that St. Louis can basically only hit lefties (.339 wOBA vs LHP in second half), although they do strikeout quite a bit, as well (25.3% K% vs LHP in second half).
• Brett Anderson, MIL (@ MIN) - Anderson gets a great start against a Twins team that has posted a .277 wOBA and 24.8% K% vs LHP in the second half.
• Tanner Houck (vs MIN, @ CLE) - These starts are hypothetical, as Houck is currently in Triple-A. But the start against Cleveland seems pretty likely and they have a .306 wOBA and 23.7% K% vs RHP in the second half.
• Miles Mikolas, STL (@ PIT) - Mikolas has allowed one earned run in his two starts coming back from the IL but did allow two unearned runs in the last one against the Pirates. He'll face them again this week, with Pittsburgh posting a .288 wOBA and 23.0% K% vs RHP this season.
• Wil Crowe, PIT (vs ARI, vs STL) - Crowe has a 3.68 ERA over his six starts in the second half and faces two suspect offenses with bad numbers versus RHP.
• Paul Blackburn (vs SEA, vs NYY) - He might not still be in the rotation for the start against the Yankees but a matchup with the Mariners is choice. Seattle has a .299 wOBA and 25.6% K% vs RHP in 2021.

Desperate Adds

• Dillon Peters, PIT (vs STL) - Peters is sticking in the rotation, after allowing a total of 2 ER in his first two starts (9.2 IP) and faces a St. Louis team that has been excellent against LHP in the second half, posting a .339 wOBA against them.
• Mitch Keller, PIT (vs ARI) - Trotting out Keller is usually a desperate move but he's coming off of two good starts against the Brewers and Cardinals (9.1 IP, 2 ER) and faces an Arizona team that has a .314 wOBA and 25.4% K% vs RHP in the second half.
• Tylor Megill, NYM (vs SF, vs WSH) - Both the Giants (.332 wOBA) and Nationals (.330 wOBA) have hit righties really well in the second half. And Megill has struggled in August, posting a 5.23 ERA over four starts and 20.2 IP.
• Dylan Bundy, LAA (@ BAL) - Everyone up for a little revenge game for my sweet Dylan, hmm? No? Just me? Okay, you're probably right, as Bundy going back to the home park of his nightmares could certainly end in disaster. But he's been much better since moving back to the rotation, running a 3.72 ERA in four starts. Baltimore plays in a bandbox but only has a .294 wOBA and 24.4% K% vs RHP.
• Touki Touissaint, ATL (vs SF) - Toussaint has a 3.24 ERA over three starts in August, going 1-0 with 15 K in 16.2 IP. The Giants hit righties hard, running a .331 wOBA but also have a high strikeout rate (25.7% K%).
• Ryan Yarbrough, TB (@ PHI) - Starting Yarbrough is not for the faint of heart and the left-hander has now allowed 5 ER or more in three of his five starts since the All-Star break. The Phillies have .325 wOBA and 25.3% K% vs LHP for the season but have cut down the strikeouts in the second half, posting a 20.8% K% and .333 wOBA).
• Steven Matz, TOR (@ DET) - This start looks juicy, with Detroit running a .322 wOBA and 26.2% K% vs LHP this season. But the Tigers have been much better in the second half, posting a .352 wOBA and 20.5% K%. Tread carefully.
• Patrick Corbin, WSH (@ NYM) - As I feel roughly the same as I did here, I'll be letting y'all hold out hope for Corbin. I won't be, as prior to his last start vs Milwaulkee (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K), Corbin had been getting shelled even more in the second half, than he did in the first, running a 7.83 over six starts and allowing 10 HR in 33.1 IP. No thanks.
• Antonio Senzatela, COL (@ CHC, vs LAD) - Definately don't start Senzatela against the Dodgers but just about anyone is worth starting against the Cubs, who have a .303 wOBA and 27.5% K% vs RHP in the second half.

Notable IL

• Tony Gonsolin, LAD
• Michael Pineda, MIN
• Kwang-Hyun Kim, NYY
• Domingo German, NYY
• Patrick Sandoval, LAA
• Johnny Cueto, SF
• Merrill Kelly, ARI
• Alex Cobb, LAA
• Adrian Houser, MIL
• Adbert Alzolay, CHC
• Joe Ross, WSH
• Ross Stripling, TOR
• Justus Sheffield, SEA
• Danny Duffy, KC

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

• Diego Castillo, SEA
• Taylor Rogers, MIN
• Tejay Antone, CIN
• Rafael Montero, HOU
• Greg Holland, KC
• Joe Barlow, TEX
• Joakim Soria, TOR
• Pete Fairbanks, TB
• Drew Pomeranz, SD
• Jordan Hicks, STL
• Julian Merriweather, TOR

With the trade deadline (and injuries) shaking bullpens up all over the league, we're going to do things a little differently, going through each team that currently has a relevant (according to our roster% threshold) bullpen situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Clippard picked up two saves this week, although Noe Ramirez came off of the IL on Thursday and got a save opportunity on Saturday, with Clippard not having pitched since Wednesday. Ramirez promptly blew his shot.

Baltimore Orioles

For the third week in a row, Baltimore collected zero saves in zero chances. Proooo-bably want to avoid this situation.

In the Mix: Cole Sulser, Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Tanner Scott.

Chicago Cubs

In the Mix: Manuel Rodriguez (Win on Wednesday), Codi Heuer (Save on Tuesday), Rowan Wick (Hold on Tuesday).

Cincinnati Reds

In the Mix: Mychal Givens (Save on Friday) Michael Lorenzen(Save on Saturday)

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are in a committee, with Gregory Soto (Win on Saturday, Loss on Tuesday), Michael Fulmer (Blown Save/Loss on Thursday), and Jose Cisnero (three appearances last week)

Kansas City Royals

Scott Barlow (Save on Saturday, Save on Wednesday, Win/Blown Save on Monday) and Jake Brentz (Hold on Friday, Save on Tuesday) are currently sharing closing duties.

Miami Marlins

In the Mix: Dylan Floro (one appearance this week), Anthony Bender (Loss on Saturday), Anthony Bass (one appearance this week).

New York Yankees

Aroldis Chapman is back from the IL and slides right back in at closer. Jonathan Loaisiga (Save on Tuesday) and Chad Green (Saves on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday) filled in most recently.

Pittsburgh Pirates

It's a committee near the Electric City, with David Bednar (Save on Saturday, Hold on Friday), Chris Stratton (Hold on Saturday), and Chasen Shreve (Win on Saturday, Loss on Monday) in the mix.

Seattle Mariners

With Diego Castillo hitting the IL, Paul Sewald (Save on Thursday, Hold on Wednesday, Save on Tuesday) and Drew Steckenrider (Save on Wednesday, Hold on Tuesday) will share the role.

Texas Rangers

It seems to be Spencer Patton's (one appearance this week) job with Joe Barlow hitting the IL. Texas is not very good.

Washington Nationals

Kyle Finnegan (Save on Friday, Save on Wednesday, Hold on Tuesday) is the closer, with not much competition. The Nationals aren't very good but Finnegan has the safest job out of the guys available on most waiver wires.

More Points Leagues Analysis