NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (5/3): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, May 3rd, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/3

- Dallas Star vs. Florida Panthers (-145) - 5.5U
- New York Islanders (-300) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
- Boston Bruins (-230) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5O
- Washington Capitals (-115) vs. New York Rangers (-105) - 6U
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-140) vs. Philadelphia Flyers - 6O
- Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-240) - 6O
- Nashville Predators (-165) vs Columbus Blue Jackets - 5O
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-145) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5.5O
- Winnipeg Jets (-165) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6U
- Anaheim Ducks vs. St. Louis Blues (-250) - 5.5U
- Vegas Golden Knights (-125) vs. Minnesota Wild - 5.5U
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Arizona Coyotes (-145) - 5.5U
- Edmonton Oilers (-185) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6U
- Colorado Avalanche (-250) vs. San Jose Sharks - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Dallas	6	30	11	16	15.5
Florida	13	16	25	1	14
New York Islanders	2	25	13	26	14.5
Buffalo	30	1	4	27	17.5
Boston	4	28	18	3	16
New Jersey	27	15	12	20	15.75
Washington	18	20	29	24	19.5
New York Rangers	10	19	23	17	20.5
Pittsburgh	12	18	29	10	14.25
Philadelphia	30	22	15	12	22.75
Chicago	25	2	16	13	13.5
Carolina	3	21	22	5	13.25
Nashville	13	8	7	17	11.5
Columbus	26	4	3	22	13.5
Toronto	8	23	27	6	13.25
Montreal	15	29	16	6	19.25
Winnipeg	17	8	20	13	11.75
Ottawa	29	4	13	9	16.5
Anaheim	23	12	2	30	17.25
St. Louis	21	16	19	15	17.25
Vegas	1	27	27	4	19.75
Minnesota	11	11	24	27	13.25
Los Angeles	19	10	9	17	16.75
Arizona	21	13	9	29	15
Edmonton	9	14	21	22	13
Vancouver	24	3	5	24	17.5
Colorado	5	31	31	1	13.75
San Jose	28	6	8	11	16.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Dallas	6	20
Florida	13	17
New York Islanders	22	24
Buffalo	15	5
Boston	12	31
New Jersey	27	2
Washington	3	8
New York Rangers	13	6
Pittsburgh	10	30
Philadelphia	17	22
Chicago	8	4
Carolina	1	27
Nashville	25	15
Columbus	29	29
Toronto	11	22
Montreal	16	26
Winnipeg	4	21
Ottawa	26	18
Anaheim	31	28
St. Louis	9	13
Vegas	24	9
Minnesota	23	1
Los Angeles	17	11
Arizona	19	3
Edmonton	2	19
Vancouver	19	15
Colorado	6	14
San Jose	28	10

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,300 FD) - McDavid has a major bounce-back game against Calgary on Saturday night as he recorded one goal and notched two assists while taking three shots on goal and having a blocked shot in just 22 minutes of ice time. McDavid has ruled his matchup against Vancouver as he has scored five goals and three assists in five games while also taking 31 total shots on goal against the Canucks this season.
Jamie Benn, DAL ($4,300 DK/ $6,100 FD) - The pricing on Benn is just too low on DK to not take a stab at him. He has done well against the Panthers this year as he has scored twice and notched three assists in seven games while also racking up 24 total peripheral stats.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Matthews, MacKinnon, Barkov, Bergeron, Scheifele, Crosby, Aho, Trocheck
Mid-Tier- Barzal, Bennett, Karlsson, Strome, Norris, Carter
Value- Stastny, Couture, Staal, Johansen, Strome, Wennberg

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Artemi Panarin, NYR ($7,500 DK / $8,200 FD) - Panarin is a high-upside winger when it comes to fantasy hockey and we have to consider him in all formats, especially with them being on home ice. Panarin has scored two goals and recorded seven assists in just six games against the Capitals this season while also accumulating 17 total shots on goal.
Teuvo Teravainen, CAR ($5,100 DK / $5,200 FD) - Teravainen is starting to heat up as he has scored a goal in back-to-back games and is only going to benefit from skating alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Teravainen has only registered two assists against his former team, the Blackhawks, but has taken 12 shots on goals in just three games against them so the shot upside could be there in this matchup.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Pastrnak, Marner, Marchand, Rantanen, Huberdeau, Stone, Kaprizov, Guentzel, Fiala, Kane
Mid-Tier- Pavelski, Svechnikov, RNH, Atkinson, Boeser, Bjorkstrand, Eberle, Schenn, Batherson, Kubalik, Puljujarvi, Meier, Kessel
Value- Niederreiter, Brown, Kempe, Keller, Appleton, Stuetzle, Beauvillier, Parise, Labanc, Schwartz, Kyrou, Backes, Labanc

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Adam Fox, NYR ($6,500 DK / $6,200 FD) - This should be a good-paced game between the Rangers and the Capitals which means Fox should see over 25 minutes of ice time. He has one goal and five assists in six games against Washington this season and has racked up 18 peripheral stats in those six games played.
Wyatt Kalynuk, CHI ($3,600 DK / $3,500 FD) - Kalynuk is making the most of his chances and has seen an increase in his ice time as he has seen over 19 minutes over his last three games played. Kalynuk has four goals and four assists in just 16 games this season and is averaging three peripheral stats per game over his last five games so he brings a solid floor for the price point that he is at.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Josi, Chychrun, Hamilton, Nurse, Pietrangelo, Makar
Mid-Tier- Martinez, Chabot, Grzelcyk, Burns, Klingberg, Hughes, Heiskanen
Value- Ekholm, Muzzin, Myers, Hamonic, Edler, Pesce, Reilly, OEL, Forsling

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Laurent Brossoit, TOR ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD) - Brossoit looks to be in line to draw the start for the Jets on Monday night against the Senators. Brossoit is 6-4 on the season with a 2.39 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage and is 2-0 against Ottawa this season. In these two starts against the Senators, Brossoit has stopped 65 or 70 total shots faced which is encouraging to hear since he should see a high shot volume but the goal-scoring upside could be limited for Ottawa.
Mike Smith, EDM ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) - Smith is coming off of an impressive performance against his former team on Saturday night as he stopped 29 of 30 shots that Calgary had on net and recorded his 18th win of the season. Smith is now 18-6-2 with a 2.30 goals allowed average and a .9254 save percentage and has won three of his last five starts. He has done very well against the Canucks this season as he is 2-0 with a 1.51 goals allowed average and is carrying a .954 save percentage against them.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Varlamov, Binnington
Mid-Tier-Jarry, Campbell
Value- Shesterkin, Petersen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

COL 1
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, d-men add on)
  - We get a familiar matchup on the Monday slate as the Avalanche head to San Jose to take on the Sharks in the SAP center. This top line for the Avs has tortured the Sharks as they have scored five full line goals and generated 42 scoring chances and 19 high-danger opportunities in just 72 minutes of ice time together. In that same ice time, they are sporting a 2.82 expected goals for rate and are creating 34.83 scoring chances for and 15.76 high-danger opportunities which are extremely high rates. Both teams have something to fight for as the Sharks are trying to make a push for the last final West division spot while the Avs are jockeying for seeding position and find themselves four points behind Vegas for first place in the West.
WPG 1
- Connor/ Scheifele/ Wheeler
  - The top Jets line could go overlooked on this slate but they remain to be a potent line when skating with one another. In 139 minutes of ice time together, this line is producing 25.29 scoring chances for and 11.58 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. In just 40 minutes of ice time against the Senators this season, this line has scored two full line goals and generated 22 scoring chances and 12 high-danger chances which turn out to be pretty solid numbers. Both Scheifele and Wheeler will be featured on the top power-play unit and make for a strong mini stack should you choose to use just of these skaters.