NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (5/1): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, May 1st, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/1

- New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders (-130) - 5.5U
- New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-145) - 6U
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Washington Capitals (-110) - 6U
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-290) - 5.5U
- Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens (-220) - 6U
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-290) - 6U
- San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche (-286) - 6.5U
- St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild (-145) - 5.5O
- Florida Panthers (-150) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6O
- Dallas Stars (-110) vs. Nashville Predators (-110) - 5O
- Vegas Golden Knights (-200) vs. Arizona Coyotes - 5.5O
- Los Angeles Kings (-125) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
- Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers (-125) - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
New York Rangers	8	19	24	19	16.5
New York Islanders	2	25	13	26	17.5
New Jersey	28	12	10	15	16.75
Philadelphia	31	21	15	12	19.25
Pittsburgh	13	17	28	10	20.75
Washington	19	20	30	23	19.25
Columbus	26	4	3	23	14.25
Carolina	3	23	22	5	13
Ottawa	30	5	14	8	14.75
Montreal	15	29	17	7	16.5
Vancouver	23	3	5	25	14.5
Toronto	9	24	26	6	15.75
San Jose	27	7	6	11	16.75
Colorado	4	31	31	2	13
St. Louis	21	17	19	15	22
Minnesota	11	11	22	28	14
Florida	12	16	24	1	14.25
Chicago	25	2	15	14	13
Dallas	6	30	12	17	16
Nashville	16	8	8	20	13.25
Vegas	1	28	27	4	17
Arizona	22	14	9	30	16.75
Los Angeles	18	10	11	17	15
Anaheim	24	12	1	31	16
Calgary	14	25	6	20	20.5
Edmonton	10	15	21	22	12.75

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
New York Rangers	12	5
New York Islanders	22	7
New Jersey	27	30
Philadelphia	20	31
Pittsburgh	10	6
Washington	2	24
Columbus	27	4
Carolina	1	14
Ottawa	26	25
Montreal	16	21
Vancouver	19	26
Toronto	11	20
San Jose	29	10
Colorado	6	15
St. Louis	8	9
Minnesota	23	28
Florida	12	27
Chicago	9	15
Dallas	7	29
Nashville	25	19
Vegas	24	12
Arizona	21	1
Los Angeles	17	13
Anaheim	31	3
Calgary	17	17
Edmonton	3	11

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,200 FD) - Despite having MacKinnon and Matthews on the slate, McDavid is the preferred option to pay up for at the center position. McDavid has scored 13 points over his last five games and has flourished against the Flames this season as he has seven goals and eight assists in just nine games against Calgary.
Jeff Carter, PIT ($4,600 DK/ $4,300 FD) - Carter has made a positive impact on the offensive end ever since he arrived in Pittsburgh earlier in April. In just nine games with his new team, Carter has recorded five points and is averaging over three peripheral stats per game which is extremely solid given his price on both sites.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Matthews, MacKinnon. Barkov, Crosby, Aho, Trocheck
Mid-Tier- Hintz, Bennett, Stephenson, Barzal, Norris, Hertl
Value- Couture, Monahan, Nelson, Danault, Byfield

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Mitch Marner, TOR ($8,300 DK / $7,600 FD) - Marner has been one of the most consistent winger plays and is certainly viable in all formats. If you choose to not spend up for Matthews in cash games, rostering Marner would be a very nice option to consider since he should be skating with Matthews the entire game, therefore, getting you the correlation. Marner has recorded at least one point in eight of the last 10 games played and has scored two goals and eight assists in eight games against the Canucks.
Drake Batherson, OTT ($4,900 DK / $4,600 FD) - The young Ottawa winger carries plenty of point-scoring upside, and at his price point on both sites, he makes for a solid value play on this slate. He has tortured the Canadiens this season as he has scored five goals and registered six assists in just eight games and has totaled 20 peripheral stats in those eight games played.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Rantanen, Kane, Huberdeau, Stone, DeBrincat, Kaprizov, Guentzel, Fiala, Pavelski, Kane, Svechnikov
Mid-Tier- RNH, Atkinsons, Boeser, Bjorkstrand, Tkachuk, Schenn, Kubalik, Puljujarvi, Meier, Teravainen
Value- Niederreiter, Kessel, Brown, Kempe, Keller, Stuetzle, Beauvillier, Parise, Labanc, Schwartz, Backes

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Tyson Barrie, EDM ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD) - There are plenty of high-priced defensive options on this slate but Barrie stands out as a great option that won't break the bank to roster. Barrie has seen over 25 minutes of ice time in back-to-back games and continues to be an assist machine as he ranks third on the team with 34 assists and third overall in points generated with 41.
Ryan Ellis, NSH ($4,900 DK / $4,300 FD) - With Ellis still being under 5k on both sites, he automatically becomes a top cash viable option on both sites. He is averaging over four peripheral stats per game and has recorded multi-point outings in two of his last five games played so he is starting to flash the upside that we know he has.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Hamilton, Fox, Nurse, Pietrangelo, Provorov, Makar
Mid-Tier- Petry, Letang, Burns, Hughes, Heiskanen
Value- Edler, Keith, Karlsson, Brodin, Pulock, Lindell, Butcher, Matheson, Stone

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

David Rittich, TOR ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - Rittich is coming off of a nice performance against the Canucks on Thursday night as he stopped 15 of 16 shots faced and recorded his first win against Vancouver this season, and also recorded his first win as a Maple Leaf goalie. Toronto is one of the heavier favorites on this slate and with this game being played in Toronto, it is hard to go against the home-ice advantage for Toronto and Rittich.
Mike Smith, EDM ($8,100 DK / $8,000 FD) - Smith is still producing for Edmonton and is facing a familiar team as this could be the eighth time that Smith has drawn the start against the Flames this season. Smith is 4-3 against Calgary this season and he is sporting a 2.89 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage in those seven games played. Despite him allowing three goals against the Flames on Thursday night, Smith has won three of his last five games played and has only allowed nine total games in that five-game stretch.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Dubnyk, Talbot
Mid-Tier- Elliott, Jarry
Value- Lankinen, Miller

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

COL 1
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, d-men add on)
  - The line lock of the night should be the Avalanche on home ice against the Sharks. Colorado is coming off of a shutout performance on Friday night where they defeated San Jose by the score of 3-0 with Landeskog and Rantanen doing most of the damage as they combined for all three goals scored. In 58 minutes of ice time against the Sharks this season, the top Avalanche line has scored three full-line goals and has generated 28 scoring chances and nine high danger opportunities. With it being a large slate, their ownership could come in lower than expected which would be ideal for tournament builds.
PIT 2
- McCann/ Carter/ Kapanen
  - Kasperi Kapanen has joined Jeff Carter and Jared McCann on the Penguins second line and it forms one of the stronger second lines in the league. They are coming off of a strong performance against Washington on Thursday night as they generated two-line goals and created five scoring chances and two high danger opportunities. With the Penguin's top line drawing the tougher defensive matchup, Pittsburgh will need their second line to step up yet again in hopes to pick up the victory on the road in Washington.