NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/5): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, April 5th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/5

- Edmonton Oilers vs. Montreal Canadiens (-125) -6U
- Philadelphia Flyers (-170) vs. Boston Bruins - 5.5O
- Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets (-205) - 6U
- Vegas Golden Knights (-135) vs. St. Louis Blues - 5.5O
- Colorado Avalanche (-165) vs. Minnesota Wild - 5.5O
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-133) vs. Calgary Flames - 6.5U
- Arizona Coyotes (-105) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-110) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Edmonton	15	15	25	16	13.25
Montreal	11	26	20	3	19.5
Philadelphia	30	20	18	16	17.25
Boston	8	29	15	4	17.75
Ottawa	31	3	8	6	17.5
Winnipeg	13	8	24	12	8.75
Vegas	2	26	20	7	14.5
St. Louis	24	18	14	16	17.25
Colorado	1	31	31	1	17.5
Minnesota	6	13	17	21	12.75
Toronto	9	23	27	8	15.75
Calgary	18	20	7	24	18.25
Arizona	19	10	8	31	13.25
Los Angeles	16	9	12	12	16

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Edmonton	2	25
Montreal	14	19
Philadelphia	19	1
Boston	10	28
Ottawa	26	13
Winnipeg	5	22
Vegas	23	26
St. Louis	21	6
Colorado	9	4
Minnesota	30	2
Toronto	8	13
Calgary	17	20
Arizona	22	3
Los Angeles	12	7

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,900 DK / $8,600 FD) - Matthews continued to dominate his matchup against Calgary on Sunday as he scored a goal and got an assist while also taking three shots on goal. Matthews has now recorded seven points over his last five games played and has three goals and four assists against the Flames this season.
William Karlsson, VGK ($4,900 DK/ $5,500) - If needing value from the center position, Karlsson is at a great price tag on both sites for your cash game build. The top line for Vegas will draw a lot of attention from the Blues which leaves the Karlsson line in the better overall matchup. Karlsson has scored one goal and recorded three assists while racking up 12 peripheral stats in just four games against St. Louis this season.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- MacKinnon, Bergeron, Scheifele, Kopitar
Mid-Tier- Tavares, Monahan, Suzuki
Value- Backlund, Krejci, Dubois, Danault, Glass

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Max Pacioretty, VGK ($7,800 DK / $7,700 FD) - Pacioretty is one of the most reliable wingers from a DFS perspective and has flourished against the Blues this year. In seven games played, he has recorded four goals and notched three assists while taking 15 total shots on goal. Pacioretty has gone pointless over his last four games and is due for a bounce-back game soon.
Andrew Copp, WPG ($4,400 DK / $3,800 FD) - While Copp doesn't have the upside like Blake Wheeler or Kyle Connor, he is a much better winger than his pricing indicates. He has recorded a point in three of his last five games and has scored two goals and recorded two assists while taking 18 shots on goal in just five games against the Senators this year.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Pastrank, Marner, Ehlers, Connor, Landeskog, Tkachuk, Stone, Tarasenko
Mid-Tier- RNH, Wheeler, Brown, Marchessault, Kempe, Fiala, Keller
Value- Gaudreau, Tatar, Batherson, Tuch, Ritchie, Kyrou, Stastny, Burakovsky, Kessel, Smith, Saad, Bjugstad

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Cale Makar, COL ($5,900 DK / $5,600 FD) - Makar has been picking up on the offensive end a bit lately as he has generated five points over his last four games played while averaging close to five peripheral stats per game over that same five-game stretch. Makar has been successful against the Wild this year as he has netted two goals and assisted four goals while tallying 22 peripheral stats over a six-game span.
Michael Stone, CGY ($2,800 DK / $3,600 FD) - The pricing on Stone dropped on DK and he still continues to produce a solid floor for your cash game builds. Stone has seen over 16 minutes of ice time over his last three games and is averaging four peripheral stats per game over his first four games of the season.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Pietrangelo, Theodore, Nurse, Chychrun, Chabot
Mid-Tier- Provorov, Petry, Rielly, Doughty, Pionk, Morrissey
Value- Faulk, Muzzin, Spurgeon, Graves, OEL, Brodin, Hague, Suter

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Connor Hellebuyck, WPG ($8,400 DK / $7,500 FD) - Hellebuyck stands out on the goalie matrix above and looks to be in a great overall spot tonight against Ottawa. He is 3-1 against them on the year and has stopped 114 of 121 total shots faced in just four games. This is encouraging as he is seeing a solid shot volume but the Sens are failing to generate any high-quality scoring chances which only benefits him in the net. Hellebuyck is an absolute steal on FD and is worth spending up in cash game builds over on DK.
Jack Campbell, TOR ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD) - Campbell has been a blessing to Toronto as he has gone 8-0 on the season and is sporting a 1.35 goals allowed average and a .951 save percentage. He is slated to start against Calgary and he has gone 2-0 against them as he has stopped 62 of 64 total shots faced while carrying a .969 save percentage. Campbell is a steal on DK as he is sub 8k and would make for a great tournament goalie to consider for your tournament builds.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Halak
Mid-Tier- Lehner, Quick
Value- Smith

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - The addition of Hyman to this top line has really added some offensive spark and this should be a line to target in your tournament builds. They are sporting a 3.31 expected goals for per 60 rate while generating 37.63 scoring chances for and 17.21 high danger chances for per 60. In 47 minutes of ice time together against Calgary, this line has scored three goals and has generated nine high danger chances while also creating 22 scoring chances as well.
VGK 2
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
  - The Blues have been struggling over their last 10 games as they are allowing over 2.5 goals allowed per 60 minutes of ice time while also losing the puck possession battle as they have a sub 50 corsi for. They get a very good Vegas team and the second line for the Golden Knights could find themselves in some good matchups as the top line of Stone and Pacioretty could draw plenty of attention. The Karlsson line is sporting a 2.85 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 33.69 scoring chances for and 12.76 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. In45 minutes of ice time against St. Louis, this line has scored three even-strength goals and has generated 28 scoring chances for in four total games.