No Universal DH - 2021 Playing Time Fallers

MLB may not have the universal DH rule in place for the 2021 season which hurts the fantasy baseball value of several hitters. Sam Chinitz digs into the top free agents and veterans who could be fallers.

Major League Baseball introduced the DH to the National League in 2020, but the rule change may not stick in 2021. MLB recently advised teams to assume that the universal DH will not be implemented for the 2021 season, and although that doesn’t mean that the door is closed on the rule for the year (Nelson Cruz is reportedly still getting looks from NL teams, so the rule isn’t dead yet), fantasy managers should approach drafts with the mindset that the National League is unlikely to have DHs in 2021.

In what should come as no surprise, the adoption of the DH by another 15 MLB clubs led to significantly more opportunities for playing time. Each NL team added roughly 250 plate appearances for a non-pitcher for the season, thrusting players who might ordinarily be in bench roles into the everyday starting lineup.

Transitioning those 250 PA (675 in a 162-game season) back from DHs to pitchers will push some everyday players back to the bench in 2021, and identifying those players is important for fantasy managers heading into drafts. 

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Methodology

To find players whose playing time will likely be most affected by the absence of the universal DH rule, I started with a list of all players (min. 150 PA) who played at least 20% of their games at DH in 2020. Since the 2020 season featured seven-inning doubleheaders, I scaled each player’s 2020 plate appearances to 1,458 innings instead of using games played to estimate the number of plate appearances each player would have had in a full 162-game season. 

I then compared each player’s adjusted 2020 playing time to Fangraphs’ 2021 depth chart projections and sorted by the players who are projected to lose the most playing time in 2021. Below is a list of all players who played at least 20% of their games at DH in 2020 and are projected to lose playing time in 2021 ordered by projected amount of playing time lost.

Simply appearing on this list doesn’t mean that a player’s fantasy value is diminished for 2021. Marcell Ozuna isn’t in any danger of losing his value on playing time grounds despite DHing in 65% of his games in 2020 and being projected to lose 92 PA in 2021; Ozuna is still projected for a healthy 651 PA in 2021, and he’s clearly in no danger of getting squeezed out of playing time after posting a 1.067 OPS in 2020.

With that in mind, there are two groups of players worth looking into from the table above. One group is comprised of players who are already signed to teams and have clear and established blockages to consistent playing time. The other group is comprised of players who are currently free agents and may be relegated to bench roles because of the halving of available DH roles. Notable players from both groups are discussed below.

Non-Free Agents

Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants

Flores would be pretty close to a lock for everyday playing time with the universal DH, but he falls on a playing time bubble without the rule in place. Without the DH, Flores will have to compete primarily with Donovan Solano for playing time, and although Flores is capable enough to garner semi-consistent playing time in that scenario, it’s probably not enough to warrant much attention from most fantasy managers.

As a result, it’s somewhat surprising that Flores comes with a top-300 ADP, pricier than that of Tommy La Stella. Flores is overpriced at his current ADP given that the universal DH is unlikely for 2021, and fantasy managers should avoid drafting the 29-year-old with the expectation that he receives everyday playing time.

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds

Winker was excellent in 2020, pairing a patient plate approach and solid contact skills with well-above-average contact quality. As a result, Winker was a Statcast darling and finished the season with an impressive.932 OPS.

Unfortunately, everyday playing time is not guaranteed for Winker in 2021. The Reds are expected to split two outfield spots between Winker, Nick Senzel, Shogo Akiyama, and Aristedes Aquino, and although Winker and Senzel should earn the lion’s share of the plate appearances, the team’s crowded outfield is likely enough to put a dent in Winker’s fantasy value. Winker is still more than rosterable in most fantasy leagues and his 210 ADP is fair, but fantasy managers should keep Winker’s somewhat reduced playing time in mind before drafting him.

Jose Martinez, New York Mets

Martinez could have clung to some chance of sporadic but meaningful playing time on an AL team, giving him enough of a chance to rebound from an awful 2020 and produce value for fantasy managers. Martinez signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason, though, drastically lowering his chances of getting enough playing time for a legitimate rebound.

Barring injuries, it’s hard to see Martinez getting any kind of reliable playing time without an available DH slot, and it’s no surprise that Fangraphs projects the 32-year-old to see fewer than 100 PA in 2021. Martinez is effectively going undrafted in most leagues, and his expected lack of playing time should leave him off the radar of fantasy managers unless the Mets make some significant changes.

Free Agents

Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion is effectively strictly a DH at this point in his career, and he’d likely have a decent chance at a starting gig with 30 possible DH jobs. With a down year in 2020 and only 15 possible DH spots, though, Encarnacion may not be able to claim everyday playing time in 2021. It’s not clear that Encarnacion would be a meaningful upgrade for any of the AL DH slots, and although he certainly has a case to be made for a few teams (like the Mariners), it’s unlikely that those teams sign Encarnacion as a starter for 2021.

That playing time uncertainty is reflected in Encarnacion’s draft price with his ADP sitting near 600, but that’s enough of a discount to make him worth gambling on late in drafts. Encarnacion is only a year removed from posting a .875 OPS with 34 home runs in 109 games after all, and there’s enough of a possibility that he cracks consistent playing time and bounces back to warrant consideration from fantasy managers in deep leagues.

Matt Kemp

Kemp has managed to stick on MLB rosters as a (relative) lefty-mashing bat recently, but defensive ineptitude likely relegates him to a role centered around DHing. Unfortunately for Kemp, although a solid .838 OPS against southpaws over the past three seasons is enough to make him a palatable DFS option, it’s difficult to justify an MLB team using a roster space on a hitter who is effectively a DH-bound platoon hitter in 2021. Kemp is unlikely to get much more than a minor-league deal and inconsistent playing time in 2021 as a result, though that’s still enough to keep him on the radar of DFS players in case the right opportunities arise. 

Brad Miller

Miller will almost certainly wind up on an MLB roster thanks to his defensive versatility and effective bat (.853 OPS over his last 127 games), but he’s likely to be squeezed out of everyday playing time without the universal DH rule. To that end, Fangraphs projects Miller to lose an adjusted 100 plate appearances in 2021, giving him only a little more than 100 games’ worth of playing time.

Of course, Miller still has an opportunity to land an everyday role as he remains unsigned. But Miller’s chances of getting everyday playing time is slim at this point, and he’s only really a factor for DFS players as a result. That said, fantasy managers in full-season leagues should monitor Miller’s free agency as the 31-year-old represents a potential draft bargain if he finds himself on a team with a clear path to at-bats.

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