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Detroit Tigers first baseman C.J. Cron is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Brian Entrekin explains why Cron could provide value at 1B this year.
As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy teams.
Cron spent the early part of his career with the Angels. In 2018, the Angels traded him to the Rays, where he hit 30 home runs with a .240 ISO in 140 games. Despite a successful season, the Rays released him and he ultimately signed on to play for Minnesota. In 125 games with the Twins, he continued to smash. That was still not good enough as the Twins released Cron, which allowed him to sign with the Tigers. As professional teams continue to play musical chairs with Cron, fantasy owners lose interest, but they should not.
Entering the 2019 fantasy season, drafters selected Cron around pick 242. Entering 2020, he has dropped even further to pick 268. Let's take a look at why Cron is a fantasy sleeper, and why fantasy players should look to draft the power-hitting first baseman.
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The Case for Cron
Cron's 2019 season was a tale of two seasons. Cron battled thumb injuries that resulted in two injured list stints. The first trip was on July 6 and the other on July 21. The stats before and after his first IL stint show differing approaches at the plate, as well as some overall power decline.
| BA-HR-R-RBI | wOBA | wRC+ | ISO | K% | |
| Pre 7/5 | .266-17-36-54 | 0.341 | 112 | 0.229 | 19.30% |
| Post 7/16 | .229-8-15-24 | 0.293 | 80 | 0.191 | 25.60% |
In Cron's 331 plate appearances before the first thumb injury, he showcased some great power. A .341 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 112 wRC+ are all above-average and pretty solid. The dips after the thumb injuries, especially an 80 wRC+, was really bad. It was not just the power that dropped off, but the plate discipline. The 6.3% increase in strikeout rate really hindered the chances of Cron being productive at the plate.
Even with the thumb injuries, Cron finished with 25 home runs in 125 games. He is just a year removed from his first full-time role, where he played in 140 games and hit 30 home runs. Consistent playing time has always been the problem for Cron, but when he has had the chance to play, he does not disappoint. Cron has hit .253 with at least 25 home runs in back to back seasons. When looking at his Statcast data, he shines even more.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Barrel% | 10.2 | 12.2 | 15 |
| Hard Hit% | 38.6 | 36.6 | 44.6 |
| xWOBAcon | 0.429 | 0.435 | 0.444 |
Cron has shown an increase in his barrel rate for three-straight seasons. His hard-hit rate and xWOBACON are well above average. His power translates even more when looking at his pull rate. As we know, pulled hard-hit balls/barrels are the best form of batted balls for home runs. Cron pulled the ball 38.2% of the time last season and is one season removed from a 43.5% pull rate.
It isn't all about elite power skills from Cron. His plate discipline has improved the last few seasons. His chase rate has dropped for five-straight seasons, and it now sits at 32.4%. Also, his strikeout rate dropped from 25.9% to 21.6% in 2019.
2020 Outlook
Cron has proven year after year that he is an overlooked power machine. He is moving to Comerica Park that has a reputation for being a massive pitcher park, but that is not completely true. If you pull the ball in Comerica, there is a lot of potential for power, and luckily Cron pulls with power well.
Last year he split some time with Mitch Garver at first base but now appears to be the lone ranger at first base for the Tigers. The projection systems foresee Cron flexing his muscle once again to the tune of 28+ home runs and a .260 average. He is currently projected to hit cleanup. With an ADP of 268, he makes for a great value as a corner infielder on your fantasy baseball team.
