RADIO
Happy Holidays RotoBallers! With the colder weather arriving, many offenses have cooled. Vegas has taken note of this, posting just one over/under above 50 points. That honor goes to the Steelers-Saints game, which is set at 53.5 points. That being said, the Rams have the highest implied team total, set at 30.75 points. Daily gamers will have to decide if Jared Goff's recent struggles are an outlier or if NFL defenses have started to figure out Sean McVay's system. My initial inclination is to fade the flailing Rams passing offense against an Arizona secondary that has been solid this season, despite the high implied point total.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 16 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 16 DFS Stacks
Houston QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins @ Philadelphia
Houston's recent tendency to go run-heavy has capped Watson's ceiling somewhat, but the second-year quarterback remains one of the league's signature dual-threats at the position. The Philadelphia offense looked reinvigorated last week following the insertion of Nick Foles into the starting lineup, which gives hope that the Eagles offense will keep the pressure on the Texans to throw throughout the game. Watson couldn't ask for a better matchup this weekend as the Eagles' banged-up secondary ranks just 20th in the league in pass defense DVOA and is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
After a few slower weeks, a dominant 10-catch, 170-yard, two-touchdown game from DeAndre Hopkins in Week 15 reminded fantasy owners that he can be a dominant force in the Houston passing attack. As alluded to above, Philly's secondary has been hit hard by injuries as they have lost both of their starting cornerbacks in the past month. That leaves Rasul Douglas in primary coverage against Hopkins. Advantage Nuk.
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams @ New York Jets
There's some question as to whether Rodgers' groin tweak will keep him out of action this weekend as the Packers have no chance at making the playoffs. If the Packers ultimately clear Rodgers, he will step into a nice situation against the Jets on Sunday afternoon. New York's defense ranks 12th in pass DVOA, but they are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Ceiling games from Rodgers have been few and far between this season, but this could be a game where we see a high-end performance out of the star signal-caller.
Adams ranks as THE WR1 in overall fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Practically matchup-proof, Adams draws a beautiful Week 16 matchup against a Jets defense that just coughed up a 10-170-2 line to DeAndre Hopkins. New York has struggled to contain opposing No. 1 wide receivers, ranking 23rd in DVOA against the position this season. Veteran defensive back Morris Claiborne will be tasked with attempting to slow Adams on the majority of his routes. Claiborne has earned just a 60.2 grade from Pro Football Focus this season.
Moderately-Priced Week 16 DFS Stacks
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster @ New Orleans
Roethlisberger and the Steelers have plenty working in their favor this weekend. While many teams will be playing in the cold, Pittsburgh will play in the temperature-controlled Mercedes-Benz Superdome, a venue that has long been a bounty for fantasy points. The only caution here is that New Orleans has shown improvement on the defensive side of the ball since a brutal start to the season. Either way, Roethlisberger helms one of the top offenses in the NFL, giving him plenty of upside this weekend.
Smith-Schuster and fellow star wideout Antonio Brown have partially cut into each other's production, although both are WR1s in fantasy this season. They have shown stark home-road splits, essentially trading off who posts a big game in fantasy. Smith-Schuster has been the road star, averaging well over 100 receiving yards in his road games this season. Further improving Smith-Schuster's outlook is the fact that he is expected to avoid the Saints' top cornerback as Marshon Lattimore will likely shadow Brown.
Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry vs. Cincinnati
Mayfield has been a better quarterback in real life than he has been for fantasy purposes. His last blowup spot, of course, came against these same Bengals back in Week 12 when he shredded Cincy for four touchdowns on just 26 pass attempts. There's some concern that the lowly Bengals won't challenge Cleveland enough to ensure the Browns have to keep throwing, but Mayfield should do enough damage in the first half alone to make him a solid fantasy play. Cincinnati's pass defense ranks 26th in the league in DVOA and is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the enemy quarterbacks.
Landry has been up-and-down since the Browns coaching staff change. The new offensive philosophy has been to spread the ball around to multiple receivers instead of zeroing in on just Landry. That being said, Landry remains the team's most frequently targeted receiver and safest bet to lead the receiving corps in fantasy production. Two weeks ago he scored a receiving and a rushing touchdown, serving as a reminder that the team's creative play-calling can still earn him a big fantasy day, albeit not always in the most traditional way. Landry will tangle with Bengals slot corner Darqueze Dennard on the majority of his routes on Sunday. Dennard has earned a 57.3 grade from PFF, and he was primarily responsible for 33-year-old Jordy Nelson's big game in Week 15.
Bargain-Priced Week 16 DFS Stacks
Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky and RB Tarik Cohen @ San Francisco
The Bears draw a fine matchup as they travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that can't stop anyone in the passing game. San Francisco's secondary ranks 25th in DVOA and is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Trubisky has been a bit inconsistent since returning from his shoulder injury, but this is the best matchup he has had since he roasted the Lions for 355 yards and three scores back in Week 10. Trubisky's rushing production doesn't hurt, either, as he's rolled up 402 rushing yards and three scores in 12 games.
While Allen Robinson has been frustrating as the team's No. 1 wide receiver, third-down back Tarik Cohen has offered a higher floor and just as much upside as ARob. Cohen's 81 targets rank fifth in the league while his 68 receptions are sixth. Overall, if you take just Cohen's receiving production, he would rank as the overall WR24 in PPR leagues. The 49ers have been weak against running backs in the passing game this season, allowing 6.4 receptions per game.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen and WR Robert Foster @ New England
Allen did it again last week, accounting for two touchdowns in a win over the Detroit Lions. While Detroit was able to limit Allen on the ground, his rushing score helped offset just 16 total rushing yards. The rookie signal-caller will look to keep it going against a Patriots defense that he missed back in Week 8 while dealing with an elbow injury. New England's defense has been a unit to target with fantasy quarterbacks, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to enemy signal-callers.
Foster continues to impress, having posted at least 94 receiving yards in three of his past four games while adding two touchdowns. The undrafted rookie has 4.41 forty wheels and has plenty of upside in a game where the Bills should have to throw often.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Carolina QB Taylor Heinicke and WR D.J. Moore vs. Atlanta
Heinicke heads into Week 16 as a mystery as he has thrown all of five passes in his two-year NFL career. With Cam Newton shut down for the rest of the season, Heinicke has a chance to show what he can do as an NFL starter. While he is a risky play as an unproven quarterback, he picked the perfect opponent to make his first NFL start against. The Falcons have been one of the worst defenses in the league when it comes to defending the pass, ranking 30th in DVOA and allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Rookie wideout D.J. Moore is worth pairing Heinicke with as it stands to reason the two at least got some work together on the second-team offense back in the preseason. Here's hoping they developed some chemistry that carries over to Week 16. Moore has split his routes run pretty evenly from the left side, right side, and the slot. That means he will see right cornerback Robert Alford's 49.5 PFF grade on roughly one-third of his routes run.
