RADIO
2017 fantasy football outlook for the Denver Broncos. Keith Hernandez evaluates the team by each position to see who will have fantasy value.
What a difference a year makes, right? After the Broncos won Super Bowl 50 with a dominating defensive performance over the Carolina Panthers, they surprisingly entered 2016 with plenty of question marks, most notably at the quarterback position following the retirement of Peyton Manning.
The defense, the strength of the club yet again, carried them to a 4-0 start, but poor offensive line play, an inconsistent ground game and spotty QB work by Trevor Siemian ultimately became the Broncos' undoing. They finished the year 9-7 and third in the AFC West, missing the postseason for the first time since 2010.
The unexpected retirement of head coach Gary Kubiak further complicated the team's identity. GM John Elway brought in Vance Joseph – former defensive coordinator with Miami – to run the show and return Denver to prominence. Denver's No-Fly secondary remains a strength, but can their offseason attempts to fortify the offensive line improve the offense enough to make another run at a postseason berth. As it goes with most teams, a lot will depend on the quarterback situation, as Siemian and second-year signal caller Paxton Lynch entered training camp in a wide open competition.
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Denver Broncos 2017 outlook
Offseason Moves
Notable Additions: RB Jamaal Charles, Rookie WR Carlos Henderson, Rookie RB De'Angelo Henderson, Rookie TE Jake Butt
Notable Losses: DE DeMarcus Ware, DT Sylvester Williams, OT Russell Okung
Quarterback
Despite the fact that Trevor Siemian actually exceeded expectations in 2016 in his first full year under center in Denver, the team wasn't satisfied heading into training camp of a new season. After all, there's a reason they selected former Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch 26th overall in the first round. They firmly believed he had the overall skills to be the next franchise QB in Denver and were going to give him a fair chance to unseat Siemian entering his second year.
That didn't happen, however, as Lynch continued to disappoint in camp and through the third preseason game. Siemian's experience was apparent, even if it's under a new coaching regime and with a new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy. The Broncos officially named Siemian their starter heading into Week 1 for the second straight season. He completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 3,410 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 14 games in 2016. Not great, but not terrible. He only had four games with at least 20 fantasy points, so he's clearly not a valued fantasy commodity and won't be anytime soon.
Siemian doesn't have excellent physical tools but has become more calm and collected under pressure as the leader of this offense, which won him the job in the end. He's not Denver's QB of the future, either, but they think they have the best chance to win with him now, and he could surprise again in an offense that should push the ball downfield more through the air under McCoy. The fact that Siemian has two of the better receiver tandems in the NFL at his disposal – Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders – doesn't hurt, either.
Siemian is, at best, a fantasy backup with a limited upside. Lynch's disappointment continues, as a shoulder injury will keep him out for two to four weeks into the season. He's quickly developing as a bust for Denver, and he's no longer worth a stash in dynasty leagues.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson returns as the leader of this backfield despite missing nine games due to a meniscus injury in 2016. Right off the bat that clearly makes him the most attractive fantasy option here, but things could get dicey and complicated with Devontae Booker, Jamaal Charles and rookie De'Angelo Henderson also factoring in.
Anderson continues to taunt fantasy owners; he had 110 carries for 437 yards (career-low 4.0 yards per carry) and four touchdowns before succumbing to injury last year and has yet to play a full season in his four years. His injury history combined with a clouded picture at running back in Denver make him only alluring as more of an RB3/flex type for fantasy owners. If he struggles to open up the year, don't be surprised if Joseph looks elsewhere.
Booker was expected to be Anderson's primary backup to begin the year, but a wrist injury and subsequent surgery will cause him to miss the first couple games of the regular season. He might've already lost his chance for significant carries beside Anderson after failing to make an impression in his rookie year when Anderson was hurt. Booker ran 174 times for just 612 yards and four touchdowns in 2016 and will find it hard to prove himself with more bodies in the backfield.
The real wild card in this backfield is Charles. The 30-year-old missed 27 of a possible 35 games with Kansas City the last two years due to multiple serious knee injuries, and not even the Broncos really know what the veteran has left in the tank. His career mark of 5.5 yards per carry remains an NFL record, and if he can even show a glimpse of his former self, Denver will take it. Charles was babied over the summer and throughout the preseason, so it's fair to wonder how much work he'll see behind Anderson, but he could be an effective third-down back if healthy. Charles is worth a shot as a low-risk, high-reward late-round flier in PPR leagues.
Henderson, the rookie, is a quick, shifty back that can do damage in a hurry. The Broncos like what they have in him, but it'll likely take injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for him to secure a prominent role. It's not far-fetched that he could provide fantasy value in his rookie year, though, what with Booker already hurt and Anderson and Charles injury risks in their own right. Henderson is a sneaky stash in deeper leagues.
Wide Receiver
Denver's wideouts aren't the problem in this offense that struggled to find consistency in 2016. Demaryius Thomas (90-1,083-5) and Emmanuel Sanders (79-1,032-5) are as good as it gets, but the depth behind them is suspect. Thomas posted his fifth straight season with 1,000 yards receiving, and he nearly missed 100 catches for the third time in his career. Nagging injuries have been a concern, but he hasn't missed a start since 2011. The days of double-digit touchdowns with No. 7 may be over, but he still produces WR1 numbers consistently when on the field, and he could benefit even more in 2017 from what should be a more aggressive pass offense. He's seen at least 141 targets in five straight years.
Sanders, who hadn't posted a 1,000-yard season before coming to Denver, now has three straight such seasons. He thrives on being a reliable short- and deep-yardage threat with reliable hands who can make the toughest catches in traffic across the middle of the field. His ceiling is a little more limited with Siemian under center, but the 30-year-old can still be one of the more reliable WR3 targets you can find out there.
Behind those two is where things get interesting. Bennie Fowler figures to open the season as the No. 3, but Jordan Taylor and rookies Carlos Henderson and Isaiah McKenzie are knocking on the door. Cody Latimer seems to be falling out of favor and is a trade candidate. Of the group, Henderson has the most upside out of the slot. He finished fourth in college touchdowns with 23 last year and fifth in receiving yards (1,535) and can be a weapon over the middle due to his speed. If you're going to invest a late-round flier in deeper leagues, Henderson should be the guy.
Tight End
Similar to the quarterback position, the Broncos are looking for someone to step up and lead the charge in the tight end room. The de facto starter on the depth chart is Virgil Green, but he disappointed in 2016 in what was expected to be his chance to prove himself – he caught just 22 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown. Green has always been a better blocker than pass catcher, so we wouldn't expect much from him in terms of fantasy numbers.
The better bets are Jeff Heuerman and A.J. Derby. Derby caught 16 passes in six games after being traded over from New England, and he could be the best vertical threat of the group. Heuerman needs to prove he can stay healthy. Rookie Jake Butt, who already returned from a torn ACL, will miss around half the season with another knee injury. The bottom line is that you shouldn't look to Denver's tight end corps for help in fantasy.
Kicker
Brandon McManus returns for his fourth year in Denver, and he's been pretty productive, sporting an 85 percent success rate each of the last two years. He has a big leg that's aided by the mile-high altitude, but until Denver's offense proves that they can move the ball more consistently, he'll probably remain as a weekly streamer off the waiver wire. McManus finished 18th in scoring for kickers in 2016.
Defense/Special Teams
Defense remains Denver's strength heading into 2017, even if their defensive line depth and run-stopping abilities are a bit suspect. They finished last year fourth in total and scoring defense with 18.6 points allowed per game and also came in tied for seventh most (27) takeaways. Injuries to Shane Ray, Derek Wolfe and Shaquil Barrett could compromise this unit's effectiveness early on, but they should still remain a top-tier defensive unit for fantasy owners. Von Miller remains the catalyst after leading the club with 13.5 sacks, and the No-Fly cornerback tandem of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. remains one of the strongest in the league. Denver's orange crush D should be a top-three unit yet again.
Overall Fantasy Outlook
Because Denver's offense is an even bigger question mark under Trevor Siemian with a new coaching staff in tow, most fantasy owners are downgrading their weapons overall, but Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should still both provide solid production barring injury, and the passing game could actually be a bit of a surprise under the more aggressive mindset of new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. Understandably, the running back situation could be a fantasy headache and could eventually turn into a running-back-by-committee – words no fantasy owner likes to hear. Thomas and the Broncos defensive unit are your safest fantasy selections, with the others being hit or miss.
As far as Denver's chances of returning to the postseason, it could be a tossup. It all depends on how much Siemian has improved and learned from his one full season on the job. It won't be easy, especially in the tough AFC West, which just may be the NFL's toughest division, top to bottom.
