Sneaky Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups, Buys: Week 7 - Hot Pitchers To Sustain Success?

May 12, 2026

Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 7 (2026) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.

Another week of MLB action is behind us, which means it's time to take another deep dive into the waiver wire and examine four starting pitchers that could be worth adding to our fantasy team.

This week, we will spotlight two pitchers from the Athletics and a potential budding star in Miami who has not been getting as much attention, given the high-end names that have recently progressed through their system.

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Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

25% Rostered (Yahoo)

The first name we will examine is likely to have the highest upside among the pitchers we are discussing today. Janson Junk posted a modest 4.17 ERA over 110 innings during the 2025 campaign and, as expected, was not on the radar of many drafters this spring. However, after a slow start, Junk has begun to turn the corner and has quietly been a very productive pitcher over the last several weeks.

Over his first 22 innings (four starts), Junk posted a modest 4.50 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. During this stretch, Junk struck out just 15 batters while serving up six free passes. However, since this slow start, Junk has posted a stellar 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last 22 1/3 frames. He has tallied 18 punchouts over this hot stretch while walking only four batters.

Junk allowed one run or fewer in three of these games and has posted back-to-back six-strikeout efforts. Is this recent surge sustainable, or is he primed to return to his early-season form?

When looking at his pitch usage by month (April/May), Junk has not made any major tweaks outside of slightly leaning on his changeup more and declining his slider usage, as shown below.

Instead, Junk is seeing greater success from a technical standpoint, not based on a change in pitch mix. His four-seamer has continued to lead his arsenal and has shown steady progression over the young season. In April, this pitch posted a .332 xwOBA, but has since improved to .266 in May. While the whiff rate has dropped in May compared to April, this primary pitch has been far more effective, which is a great sign.

His No. 2 pitch has recently become his changeup (instead of his slider), and has helped balance out the drop in whiff rate on the four-seamer. In May, his changeup has boasted a strong 38.1% whiff rate but, on the surface, a modest .361 wOBA. However, it could be due for some positive regression as shown in the power department, as evidenced in the .365 xSLG under the hood, compared to the.500 SLG at face value.

His slider (No. 3 pitch in May) shares a similar usage rate with his changeup and has generated a solid amount of whiffs (20.8%) but has not been the most effective, as it holds a high .398 xwOBA.

The one pitch to continue to monitor is his sweeper. In May, he threw this pitch 11.8% of the time, a slight decrease from the 15.8% rate in April. However, this pitch has begun to play even better off a higher-used changeup, posting a strong 26.7% whiff rate, a stark contrast to the 7.9% whiff rate it held a month ago.

Additionally, this pitch holds a .353 xwOBA under the hood, compared to the surface-level .555 wOBA. While the sample size is small, if this pitch can develop into another high-end whiff option, Junk could have another near 25.0% whiff rate pitch in his arsenal.

Overall, Junk sits with a 3.84 xERA, which is understandable, given that many of his pitches could take a slight step back as we noted earlier. However, his elite command (5.5% BB%) paired with his budding strikeout upside could make him a viable SP4 every week. He has continued to keep the ball on the ground (48.5% ground-ball rate) and limit barrels (6.6% rate).

His current 18.2% K% does not jump off the page, but his pitches have begun to show far more swing-and-miss potential than earlier in the season. He is a strong buy ahead of a potential rise in strikeout totals.

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

15% Rostered

Mike Burrows logged a season-high 96 innings in the majors last season and showed solid upside, which made him an intriguing late-round option for deeper leagues this spring. Last season, Burrows carried a 3.94 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. He struck out 97 hitters while holding a solid 7.7% BB%.

However, the right-hander had a rough start to the 2026 campaign, which likely sent him to the waiver wire in nearly all leagues. Over his first 26 2/3 innings (five starts), Burrows posted a high 6.75 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP. He managed to strike out only 25 hitters. Despite the rough start, Burrows has begun to rekindle his 2025 form, logging a much-improved 2.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP over his last three games.

He is coming off the best start of his young season, where he tossed seven shutout frames against the Reds in the hitter's paradise of Great American Ball Park, which has made him a viable waiver wire target ahead of Week 7.

As shown below, the only major tweak Burrows has made to his repertoire is leaning on his curveball and four-seamer more often while slightly reducing the usage of his slider and sinker.

His four-seamer has been the driving force of his recent success. In May, this pitch has generated an elite .271 xwOBA, a stark increase from the .459 xwOBA it posted in April. While the pitch has generated a low 7.1% whiff rate, it has been a strong No. 2 option for limiting hard contact.

Burrows' No. 2 pitch, his changeup, has been his primary source of whiffs as it has posted a >.30% whiff rate in each of the first two months while carrying an xwOBA under .295. While his curveball has not been as effective in May as it was in April, this pitch posted a 33.3% whiff rate in 2025 and has an overall 37.8% whiff rate in 2026, with a .271 xwOBA, suggesting better days are ahead.

The other pitch to note in his profile is his slider. He began to rely on it less in May, but it still posted a .251 xwOBA in 2026 with a strong 29.0% whiff rate. If he can begin to find his curveball again while relying more on his slider, Burrows could develop three pitches with an above-average whiff rate to play along with his four-seamer.

His overall 5.04 ERA is highly inflated, as suggested by the underlying 3.79 xERA, which places him just above average. His 32.9% chase rate suggests his strikeout totals should continue to gradually climb, especially given that he has begun to lean on his curveball even more.

Whilst his track record is not the strongest, he got quite unlucky in the early going and has been trying to find his footing recently. He is a strong SP4/SP5 in deeper 12+ team leagues and is worth considering as a top streamer when he has favorable matchups on the slate.

Mike Burrows, 96mph ⛽️

7th K pic.twitter.com/xLRc6v43Rg

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2026

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

15% Rostered

The final two pitches this week are both teammates. Ginn is currently a back-of-the-rotation arm for the Athletics but has performed quite well, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 37 1/3 innings. He has struck out 31 hitters while carrying a 10.0% walk rate.

While he stumbled on May 1, allowing a season-high five runs, Ginn bounced back in a big way on May 7, logging eight innings of one-run ball with four hits against the Philadelphia Phillies. In this outing, Ginn tallied a season-best eight punchouts while serving up just one walk. Removing his lone five-run showing, Ginn would carry a 2.73 ERA through 33 frames.

In the visual below, Ginn has not tweaked his pitch mix over the course of the young season, with his only minor change coming in his sinker usage, which has gradually dropped from the high 371.% usage rate it carried back in April.

Seeing Ginn slowly rely less on his sinker is a good sign, as that pitch carries a looming .320 xwOBA (compared to the surface-level .266 wOBA), suggesting it is due for a step back. His other four pitches share nearly identical usage with his cutter, slider, and changeup, all at 17.0%, while his four-seamer comes in at a slightly lower 13.6%.

While his cutter holds a .456 xwOBA under the hood, his slider and changeup have been "plus" pitches. His slider holds a 24.3% whiff rate with a stellar .271 xwOBA. His changeup has posted a higher 36.5 whiff rate with a .163 xwOBA. While his four-seamers' .297 xwOBA is higher than the .206 wOBA on the surface, it has still been an effective pitch and should be thrown more often to balance out his sinker.

His overall profile suggests the 26-year-old should continue to maintain this success. His 3.68 xERA is right in line with his 3.62 ERA, while his .232 xBA remains above average. He has generated a strong 51.5% ground-ball rate with a 71st percentile hard-hit rate.

While his strikeout totals remain low, his slider and changeup have shown upside in terms of swing-and-miss potential and could lead to high-end strikeout totals, as shown in his most recent start. Unlike the three names above, Ginn is a pure "streamer" in standard 12-team leagues for the time being. However, if he can once increase his strikeouts, he could emerge as a weekly SP5, especially when pitching away from Sacramento.

Aaron Civale, Athletics

20% Rostered

The final name we will look at has far more experience at the major league level. Civale is in his eighth MLB campaign and has logged 780 MLB frames as of writing. However, despite being in his age-30 campaign, the right-hander has taken a massive step forward in 2026.

Through 41 2/3 innings, Civale has been very effective, posting a 2.59 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. While his strikeout total has been low (33), he has been able to limit the damage. In fact, since allowing eight runs over his two outings on April 17 and April 22, Civale has been on a stellar run.

In his last three starts, Civale has held a near-perfect 0.56 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP over 16 frames. Is this impressive start to the season sustainable? Since May 1, Civale has not changed his pitch mix, as nearly all usage percentages are identical to his April totals, suggesting he is instead finding more success with specific pitches.

He primarily relies on his cutter and curveball, which have accounted for 55.4% of his usage in the early going. His cutter (32.9% usage) has posted a strong .274 wOBA on the surface, and his .284 xwOBA under the hood suggests he should not face much regression. This pitch has also been a reliable whiff option, posting a 22.4% whiff rate despite a low velocity of 87.6 mph.

His curveball has been just as effective as a No. 2 option, posting a .235 xwOBA and a 27.8% whiff rate. However, the cracks in his profile begin to show when looking at his secondaries. His sinker and four-seamer hold an xwOBA above .380 and a whiff rate below 13.0%, which are both not ideal marks.

While the Northeastern product does have a strong foundation for a 1-2 mix, he needs to sharpen his secondaries to achieve more sustainable success. His overall 4.18 xERA suggests he is overperforming relative to his profile, as it is nearly 1.5 points higher than the 2.59 ERA on the surface. While his above-average 7.2% walk rate has helped him limit the damage, he may not enjoy the same success without a more developed arsenal.

For now, like Ginn, Civale is a fine streaming option when on the road in a favorable matchup. His underlying metrics suggest he could be due for a step back, especially when facing a tougher opponent in Sacramento.

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