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Andy looks at three starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2026. Are Ben Brown, Peter Lambert, and Foster Griffin for real?
Through the early going of the 2026 fantasy baseball season, managers have seen many pitchers emerge as early season breakouts. Los Angeles Angels pitcher Jose Soriano has had an outstanding start to the season, while several young pitchers like Connelly Early and Payton Tolle have flashed elite upside on a per-start basis.
In this piece, we will look at three pitchers who have been turning the corner gradually and could emerge as must-start pitchers later in the campaign, including one who is transitioning back to a starting role and a potential late-career breakout in Washington.
Should managers look to add these three starting pitchers before they continue their breakout season? Let's dive in!
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Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs
10% Rostered
Ben Brown progressed through the Cubs system as a starting pitcher, but has seen his role change throughout his young MLB career. Brown made his MLB debut in 2024 and logged 55 1/3 innings with eight of his 15 games registered as starts. During this stint, the right-hander flashed solid upside, holding a 3.58 ERA with a strong 1.08 WHIP.
In 2025, Brown took a step back, posting a much higher 5.92 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP over 106 1/3 innings. However, while Brown began the 2026 campaign as a reliever, he really made a start and could transition back to the rotation to help address Chicago's numerous injuries.
So far, Brown has appeared in 13 games (one start) and logged 29 2/3 innings to the tune of a 1.82 ERA and a stellar 0.91 WHIP. During this stint, Brown has struck out 27 hitters while walking only 7.9% of the hitters he has faced.
Can Brown not only return to his 2024 form but also take another step forward as he returns to the starting rotation?
While Brown's sample size is small, he has begun to make major strides in his third MLB campaign. So far, Brown has posted a 90th-percentile xERA and an 84th-percentile xBA. He has posted an elite 3.8% barrel rate and a 53.8% ground-ball rate, both of which place him in the 88th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Throughout his career, Brown has typically relied on just three pitches: his four-seamer, knuckle curve, and changeup. However, in 2026, Brown added a sinker, which has significantly improved his four-seamer production.
His four-seamer has currently generated a strong .276 xwOBA (.275 wOBA on the surface), which is not only an impressive mark but is also on pace to be the best mark of his career. He relies on his four-seamer nearly 36.0% of the time, and seeing his primary pitch produce stronger results is great for his long-term outlook.
As shown below, with an added sinker, his four-seamer is looking far more productive than it ever has in his young career.
His No. 2 pitch, his knuckle curve, has been recommended as his primary whiff-inducing pitch, boasting an elite 41.9% whiff rate and a .267 xwOBA. His sinker has been deployed as his No. 3 pitch (23.0% usage), which has increased his changeup. While the sample size is not overly large for this pitch, it has been effective when used, posting a .236 xwOBA and .237 xSLG.
Ben Brown's new sinker has turned him into one of the Cubs' most effective pitchers.
That sinker accounts for 20% of all outs he's induced this season. Here’s a montage of every out he’s recorded with it: pic.twitter.com/8DJHcuaTR0
— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) May 9, 2026
Despite the slight tweak in his arsenal, Brown still holds a dominant 23.7% K%, which keeps him just above the average mark. If Brown can once again lean on his curve, he should see those strikeout numbers continually rise.
Even though Brown has not enjoyed much success as a starter, those deeper leagues looking for a potential lottery ticket should stay ahead of his next scheduled start.
The right-hander has the strikeout upside to emerge as a legit weekly option at the position. Those in 12+ team leagues should view Brown as a high-end stash option in Week 7. With Matthew Boyd now shifted back to the injured list, Brown may be given a long leash to work out any struggles as a starting pitcher for the foreseeable future.
Peter Lambert, Houston Astros
35% Rostered
Peter Lambert began his MLB career with the Colorado Rockies and did not have much fantasy value as a pitcher in Coors Field. Over four MLB seasons with the Rockies (243 2/3 innings), the right-hander posted a rough 6.28 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP. During this stretch of his career, Lambert tallied just 181 punchouts while serving up 95 free passes.
He joined the Astros in 2026 ahead of the regular season and has slowly been turning the corner ever since. Through 29 1/3 innings in the Space City (five starts), Lambert has posted a promising 2.76 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. In fact, since allowing a season-worst four runs in his season debut back on April 16, Lambert has posted an elite 1.85 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP over his last four outings.
As he has throughout most of his career, Lambert relies on a deep arsenal, throwing at least five pitches more than 10.0% of the time and three pitches more than 15.0% of the time. He relies primarily on his four-seamer (32.5% usage), which has posted a strong .264 wOBA on the surface, but a hefty .400 xwOBA under the hood, suggesting regression is on the way.
His No. 2 pitch, his changeup, is his primary source of whiffs, boasting a 43.5% whiff rate and a stellar .219 xwOBA. His slider sits at a slightly lower 15.7% usage rate, but it's even more effective, posting a .129 xwOBA with a similar 33.3% whiff rate.
Over the last two games, Lambert has had to rely slightly more on his slider, which could not only improve his pitch productivity but also raise his floor for strikeout potential, especially when paired with his changeup.
His slider, cutter, and sinker are used as deeper secondary operations, but neither has enjoyed consistent success despite their limited use.
Overall, Lambert carried a strong 3.45 xERA with a .221 xBA into his next outing. While both of these marks are above the rates among qualified pitchers, the suggestion is that his 2.76 ERA on the surface should face some minor regression (as we noted when looking at his four-seamer).
His 24.2% K% (63rd percentile) also has some untapped upside, especially if he begins to lean on his slider as the No. 3 option. The other component of his profile that could cause concern is his command. Despite holding a 1.03 WHIP over his last 24 1/3 innings, he has served up a high 4.1 BB/9 over this stretch.
For now, Lambert is a strong add in all 12-team leagues as mid-end SP4/SP5 with upside. While there is some upside to his strikeout profile, managers who need to protect their WHIP should closely monitor his command.
Segunda salida corrida de Peter Lambert con 7.0 IP, y 3 de sus últimas 4 son aperturas de calidad.
Su labor esta noche contra Seattle:7.0 IP | 6 H | 3 R | 3 ER | 1 BB | 6 K | ERA: 2.76
• 96 pitcheos (63 strikes)
• Max Velo 94.9 mph (avg fastball: 93.5 mph)
• 13 swing &… pic.twitter.com/ETssZvHgsA— Javier Gonzalez (@Astros_Coverage) May 12, 2026
Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals
55% Rostered
The final name we will spotlight is nearing the 60% rostership mark on Yahoo. Griffin is a former first-round pick but has battled injuries and was never given an extended taste of major league action. The left-hander made his MLB debut back in 2020 and had another brief appearance in 2022 before heading overseas to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants.
However, after a strong showing across the globe, Griffin earned a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Nationals to prove that he was capable of handling his own in the major leagues. So far, Griffin has looked far more comfortable and is emerging as a legit late-career breakout candidate in D.C.
Through 46 2/3 innings this season, the southpaw has posted an elite 2.12 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. During this stint, Griffin has struck out 42 hitters while posting an above-average 7.9% walk rate. Given that he logged only eight innings of MLB action before the 2025 campaign, his current sample size in the majors remains very small, despite being in his age-30 campaign.
Griffin relies on a deep arsenal to keep hitters off balance. So far, Griffin has thrown at least five pitches more than 10.0% of the time and mixes in a No. 6 and No. 7 pitch at least 7.3% of the time. Leading his pitch mix is his cutter, which he throws 31.0% of the time, nearly double that of any other pitch.
This cutter has averaged a modest 87.9 MPH but has been very effective, generating a .297 wOBA with a 21.8% whiff rate. However, it could face some regression, as expected, given the .312 xwOBA under the hood. His No. 2-5 pitches have very similar usage rates and have varying degrees of effectiveness.
His "No. 2" option, the four-seamer, has been the worst to this group, carrying a .423 xwOBA with a low 14.0% whiff rate. His sweeper (13.8% usage) has been the complete opposite, carrying a .287 xwOBA with an elite 35.9% whiff rate. Rounding out this group are his sinker and changeup, which carry similar .313 and .260 xwOBAs and 22.5% and 27.3% whiff rates.
However, recently he has begun to rely less on his four-seamer and has turned to his changeup as the primary option out of this group. As shown in their previous statistics, this change could bring Griffin even more sustained success.
In his most recent outing (on May 8), Griffin struck out a season-high nine hitters. In this start, he turned to his changeup as his No. 2 pitch. It posted a dominant 60.0% whiff rate during that game, and in return drastically lowered his four-seamer usage.
Overall, the southpaw sits with a modest 4.06 xERA and a .244 xBA, which places him in the 50th and 49th percentile, respectively. While both marks suggest he has greatly outperformed his current 2.12 ERA, if he leans less on his four-seamer and more on his changeup, he could counteract much of this projected regression.
While managers should not consider him a top target for strikeouts, as his nine-punchout effort will likely be viewed as an outlier, his deep arsenal can limit damage despite his modest velocity.
He is a fine SP4 with a safe floor for the foreseeable future. While he may not have the upside as Brown or Lambert, particularly in terms of strikeouts, he will likely be the reliable option when looking to boost your ratios or looking for an "innings eater" in a points league.
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