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Advanced statistics should come with a warning label: Do not ingest without full, proper context. Analyzing player performance is complex to say the least. Spend five minutes on Twitter and you will find a pair of fantasy writers (everybody’s doing it, apparently) who disagree. At a basic level, a singular statistic, like exit velocity on batted balls, is just one piece to a much larger puzzle. It tells us part of the story, just not the whole story.
If you’re not a stats junkie, you probably haven’t been paying close attention to MLB Advanced Media’s Statcast data, which uses motion-tracking cameras to record data in all 30 stadiums across the league. Not all of the data is shared with the public, (MLB front offices have had access to this type of data since around 2008) but Statcast has released batted ball exit velocity data, which simply measures how fast the ball is traveling off a hitters bat, for every game since the start of the season.
Unlike PITCHf/x, which we have data going as far back as 2007, we don’t have years of data upon which to draw our conclusions. However, the sample size is not insignificant. Rob Arthur, formerly of Baseball Prospectus but currently with Five Thirty Eight, has published some of the most detailed research on the correlation between exit velocity and both batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and OPS. Basically, the harder a hitter puts a baseball in play, the more likely it is to fall for a hit.
There are some exceptions. For example, if a notorious slugger like Miguel Cabrera smokes a line drive off the bat in excess of 100 mph, but hits it right at the third baseman, there is a solid chance that it will be caught. Defensive shifts would also presumably have an impact as well in canceling out the impact of exit velocity. If a pull hitter, like Carlos Santana for example, hits a hard ground ball directly into the shift, it likely won’t matter how hard he hit the ball, it’s still going to be an out.
According to Baseball Savant, which hosts the largest batted ball exit velocity database out there (to my knowledge anyway), league-average exit velocity has consistently remained around 88 mph this season, which should be your benchmark when evaluating this type of data. So, how does all of this relate back to fantasy baseball. It used to be a cliché when a hitter ran a low-BABIP that he was “hitting the ball hard but getting unlucky.” Now we can actually gauge whether that’s a true assessment and make more informed decisions about fantasy trades and free agent pickups. This week’s edition of the RotoBaller Stock Watch examines several hitters who have seen a recent spike in their batted ball exit velocity worth targeting.
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Since he was called up on June 8th, Correa leads all of baseball with 25 batted balls with an exit velocity greater than 100 mph. Basically, he’s hitting the ball harder (and more often) than anyone in the league. Correa is the unquestioned top shortstop selection in dynasty leagues, but now that we have further evidence relating to just how hard he makes contact when he puts the ball in play (and the impact that has on both BABIP and OPS), expecting him to be an elite five-category fantasy contributor at a razor thin position is not out of the question.
There is a high probability that he evolves into one of the most valuable fantasy commodities in the league in the near future. It’s worth testing the waters in a potential trade, because if you can acquire him for anything less than that price, he may turn out to be a bargain. No matter how you slice it, he's a fantasy superstar.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies
Over the last month, Blackmon has put the ball in play 49 times with an exit velocity above league average (88 mph), which is more than any other hitter in baseball. During that span, he’s slashing .314/.368/.457 with 10 extra-base hits (two home runs) and 11 stolen bases in 117 plate appearances.
A .352 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is evidence of the impact a substantial increase in batted ball exit velocity can have. Over the first two months, Blackmon put the ball in play with an exit velocity above league average just 52 times in 204 plate appearances. As a result, his BABIP sat at just .297.
If you look at the overall numbers, there isn’t anything that juts out as a potential outlier this season. Aside from a few more steals, he’s putting up virtually identical numbers (especially in the power department) to the ones he posted during his breakout campaign last year. Blackmon has solidified his status as a no-doubt top-20 fantasy outfielder and if he continues to hit the ball the way he has over the past month, his stock will continue to rise.
Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past three months, you’ve probably noticed that Machado has been crushing the ball. According to batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions on FanGraphs, Machado’s 35% hard contact rate represents the highest rate of his career. He’s already posted a career-high 15 home runs before the All-Star break.
Machado has done most of his damage since June 1st. He’s hit .364/.414/.617 with seven home runs and is tied for the AL lead in batted balls (48) with an exit velocity above league average. It’s no coincidence that his BABIP during that stretch is .364. While Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier and Nolan Arenado are presently better options, Machado is just 22-years-old and represents the future face of the position. If you had to pick one hitter at the hot corner to start a dynasty franchise with, he’s the one you choose.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
It’s a shame we don’t have exit velocity data from previous campaigns, because it would likely validate the future Hall of Famer’s power renaissance. He’s currently tied with Machado for the AL lead in exit velocity over the last month, putting 48 balls in play with an exit velocity above league average. The result has been a slash line of .308/.406/.736 with 12 home runs, 22 runs scored and 24 RBI in 106 plate appearances.
Despite the fact he’s routinely hitting the ball hard, he’s running an absurdly low BABIP (.223) and is hitting just .265 this season. Remember home runs do not factor into BABIP, so if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, it’s likely not falling for a hit. The exit velocity data does back up his power surge and gives us some hope that the reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated in recent years.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
What if I told you that since June 1, Cano has put the ball in play with an exit velocity above league average more times (44) than stalwarts Paul Goldschmidt (40), Miguel Cabrera (38) and Bryce Harper (33)? Has it translated into tangible production for fantasy owners? Not quite. He’s hit just .221/.250/.358 with two homers and just nine extra-base hits in 100 plate appearances over the last month.
Cano’s struggles are complex. There isn’t one singular statistic that can explain his precipitous decline, but a career-high ground ball rate (53%) stands out above everything else. He may be hitting the ball harder recently, but unless he can start putting the ball in the air, his struggles may continue. Cano (just like David Ortiz) is a prime example of how exit velocity can be misleading and doesn’t always translate into a higher BABIP. One thing is for sure, if you're trading for him in any league, you're getting him for a rock-bottom price. It might be worth the risk.
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