College Football Betting Picks - Expert Predictions, CFB Picks Against the Spread: Week 5

October 2, 2026

Mike's Week 5 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, October 3, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

I finished at .500 on the picks, but still lost a little bit on the points last week. I came out ahead because I bet heaviest on UMass. It is a very different game this year. Pop Watson is the best player in the MAC.

I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway. If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.

There are only three of those this week, and there are much better spots. I'm not messing with any of those. We have 51 FBS vs. FBS games on Saturday, and we've got some good ones with nearly everyone in conference play.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 5

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.

I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.

If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.

We'll try to get back on the winning side of things this week. We've got a few really good spots.

Memphis (-20.5) at Charlotte

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The powers that be (see: TV networks) must be getting tired of the lightning delays. This game was originally scheduled for 3:30 pm Eastern, but was moved back due to weather.

Hopefully, this will take most of the rain out of the game. Not like it matters. Memphis would rather run anyway.

Pick: Texas -20.5

(3) Notre Dame (-21.5) at North Carolina

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The line is down three points already, and there is no juice on this number. The North Carolina defense has looked the part, but they have another quarterback who is not good in this system and likely never will be.

Pick: Notre Dame -21.5

(7) Alabama (-5.5) at (16) Mississippi State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Before last week, I would have hammered the Bulldogs at home. Watching Keelon Russell over the last two games, He is at least as good as Kamario Taylor. I hate that the narrative is going to be that Mississippi State wasn't good if they lose this game. That's not true at all.

The Battle for Highway 82 is one of Alabama's oldest rivalries thanks to proximity (90 miles), but it has been very lopsided. The Bulldogs haven't won since 2007 despite entering this game ranked No. 1 in 2014. Can the Bulldogs break the streak here?

I trust Fluff Bothwell more than Alabama's backs, and Alabama has been gouged on the ground, but Taylor has started the last two weeks slowly. If that happens again, I'm not sure the Bulldogs can come back on this team.

Take a Kamario Taylor break, Mississippi State RB Fluff Bothwell (5-10, 230) has been a stud this season

?61 rushes, 354 yards (5.8 YPC), 2 TD

He’s tripled his season receiving production in the first half vs Mizzou too pic.twitter.com/E9t8DYfxlq

— Clint Goss (@NFLDraftDome) September 27, 2026

I was really hoping that Alabama's performance last week was going to push this line above a touchdown. It's significantly harder to pick it now. The money is still coming in on the Bulldogs because this line opened at -3, but there isn't much juice left.

Usually when something like this happens, you see the sharks jump on Saturday morning and hammer the favorite since the vig is gone. I'm going to wait to bet this one for that reason because it could close higher.

Pick: Mississippi State +5.5

Central Florida at (20) Houston (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wait...Is Houston still ranked? That one flew past me. I know they lost a tough one to a solid Texas Tech team. Houston is good, but that UCF defense held Pitt to 12 points and TCU to 13.

This number feels a little high to me. Give me UCF and the points. They're not going to win, but I feel like this stays close.

Pick: Central Florida +11.5

Boston College at (21) SMU (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Ranking SMU but not Duke is dirty work, but we all know that a vast majority of AP voters don't actually watch football anymore. They may as well be AI-generated polls at this point.

That's a hell of a lot of points for a team that turns the ball over a lot. Boston College relies on ball control, and has been hanging around because of it. This is way too high.

Pick: Boston College +20.5

Middle Tennessee State at Kansas (-18.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is down three points and could go lower. I think everyone realizes that Kansas isn't that great of a team. MTSU beat Nevada and hung around with Jacksonville State.

We can't learn much from that when it comes to Kansas, but the Jayhawks haven't looked explosive enough to cover it. I don't trust this at all.

Pick: Middle Tennessee State +18.5

West Virginia at Iowa State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is the best "rivalry" that no one knows about. It's called the Riot Bowl, and it has the best trophy in all of college football.

West Virginia has held the Riot Bowl Trophy for 366 days. #TrustTheClimb pic.twitter.com/MKHWZo8SsD

— EerRational (@EerRational) October 31, 2022

The photo doesn't quite do it justice. The back half of the gas can was removed so a Busch Light 30-pack box could be stuffed inside the gas can.

The history goes something like this. When West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2012, all of the other teams had their rivalry games during rivalry week. Iowa State and West Virginia had already played theirs.

The two teams played on the last week of the season. When the fan bases got to know each other, they realized that they both loved alcohol and fire. West Virginia used to burn couches in the streets of Morgantown after big wins.

Iowa State had Veishea parties every spring that caused so many riots that they were discontinued in 2014. Someone came up with the nickname "Riot Bowl," and some crafty fan made the trophy.

As for the game itself, the series is tied at six wins each, and there have been three instances where the unranked team beat the ranked one. It's always close, and likely will be again.

Pick: West Virginia +3.5

Stanford at Wake Forest (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I like the way this Wake Forest team plays, but the growth of Davis Warren under the tutelage of Andrew Luck and Tavita Pritchard is impressive. One of these days, his teammates will improve along with him...

Pick: Wake Forest -13.5

Syracuse (-6.5) at Connecticut

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

The rash of interceptions thrown by Steve Angeli is concerning. Concerning enough for me to leave this one alone.

Pick: Connecticut +6.5

Michigan (-5.5) at Minnesota

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line is in the tank just as I figured it would be after Minnesota shocked Washington in Seattle. It's one thing for Michigan's line to get pushed around by Iowa. That's good against good. I'm not sure that Minnesota's line, either one of them, is good.

Pick: Michigan -5.5

Navy at Air Force (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line tells me that Braxton Woodson is out without even looking it up. Jackson Gutierrez was excellent when running the ball, but he has some untimely turnovers. He's had all week to fix it, and I think he did.

Pick: Navy +3.5

Michigan State at Wisconsin (-9.5) 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Wisconsin by 10? With Cam Edwards out, I'm surprised that it's not higher.

Pick: Wisconsin -9.5

Vanderbilt at (2) Georgia (-25.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Is Jared Curtis better than John Mateer already? Sadly, yes. He's still going to turn the ball over, and Georgia is elite at turning turnovers into points.

Pick: Georgia -25.5

Western Michigan (-13.5) at Buffalo

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

We got a gift when this line dipped below two touchdowns. Take advantage of it. Buffalo has beaten two FCS schools by a combined seven points. One of those was a Robert Morris team that Akron demolished.

Pick: Western Michigan -13.5

Toledo (-19.5) at Ball State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

MACtion is so much better on a weeknight than on ESPN+ on Saturdays. Toledo is going to win, but by how much? I'm not betting on it either way.

Pick: Toledo -19.5

(5) Ohio State (-14.5) at (14) Iowa

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't like that half at all. Is Ohio State that much better than the rest of the Big Ten? Iowa's secondary is going to be tested in this one, but the Hawkeyes are good enough on both lines to chew the clock and shorten the game. This stays within 14 points.

Pick: Iowa +14.5

(8) Florida (-5.5) at (25) Missouri

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Well, Missouri is still ranked to give Florida another ranked win. Color me surprised. Missouri's run defense has been impressive this year, but Jadan Baugh is matchup-proof.

Pick: Florida -5.5

Auburn at (17) Tennessee (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Wow, I love this for under a touchdown. I have questions about when Tennessee will open up the offense. It likely won't be here, but it probably won't need to be.

Pick: Tennessee -6.5

California at UNLV (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

One team has Jackson Arnold. One does not. Advantage: Cal.

Pick: California +2.5

Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Wake is better than we are giving them credit for. Lincoln Kienholz is what CJ Bailey wants to be when he grows up.

Pick: Louisville -3.5

Virginia (-2.5) at Florida State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Florida State will find a way to lose this. It's what they do.

Pick: Virginia -2.5

Wyoming at North Dakota State (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Wow, that's a lot of points. NDSU has repeatedly proven they can cover this line against teams better than Wyoming.

Pick: Connecticut +3.5

Akron at Central Michigan (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I like Akron's offense more, but it's still a road game. There are much better spots today.

Pick: Akron +6.5

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Sooner or later, the rest of you will believe in Pop Watson III too.

"Pop" Watson opens the door for the #Minutemen with a dominant run down the right side of the line. 14-3 for #UMass. pic.twitter.com/cLvJJyNyvn

— Tamer Bohatch (@TamerBohatch) September 27, 2026

UMass hasn't won more than four games in a season since their return to FBS in 2012. That ends today.

Pick: Massachusetts -6.5

Ohio (-3.5) at Kent State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Dru DeShields looked good last week. That has caused the line to dip, but I think I'm buying the dip.

Pick: Ohio -3.5

Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Miami looked awful in the opener against Pitt, but they only lost by four at Cincinnati and beat UConn last week. Strangely enough, this still feels low.

Pick: Miami (OH) -13.5

Old Dominion at Georgia State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Lanear McCrary Jr. is going to be a problem for the Monarchs.

Pick: Georgia State -2.5

Marshall at James Madison (-18.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I haven't seen anything from Marshall that says they can hang around.

Pick: James Madison -18.5

Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Nebraska's defense isn't as dominant as UCLA's, but they have played very well since the second half of the Ohio game. The half has me lowering the bet a little, but I see this closer to a 20-point game than 14.

Pick: Nebraska -14.5

UTEP at New Mexico (-22.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Against all odds, the three-headed quarterback system is working in Albuquerque.

Pick: New Mexico -22.5

(24) Kentucky at South Carolina (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line opened at a full touchdown, and bettors have been smashing Kentucky all week. The juice is out of control at 2.5, but it's even on the Kentucky side. Let someone else drink the juice.

Pick: Kentucky +2.5

Purdue at Illinois (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Illinois' bugaboo is run defense. Purdue can do that too. I wouldn't be shocked if the Illini lost outright.

Pick: Purdue +9.5

Oregon State (-6.5) at Colorado State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Hauss Hejny opened the week as questionable, but was downgraded to doubtful on Thursday. The line moved accordingly, but not enough for me. Braden Atkinson has been outstanding for the Beavers this year.

Pick: Oregon State -6.5

(10) BYU (-6.5) at TCU

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't know...this still feels low. That's the Vegas default for BYU, and I've made a lot on it over the last two years.

Pick: BYU -6.5

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is disgusting, and I want no part of it.

Pick: Texas A&M -14.5

UTSA (-11.5) at Rice

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Rice's bastardized version of the option is a very interesting offense to watch, and it often succeeds in keeping the ball out of the other team's hands. I still trust UTSA enough, especially with little juice on the Roadrunners.

Pick: UTSA -11.5

Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Chanticleers lost to Liberty at home last week because of a plethora of mistakes. Deuce Bailey should be able to rebound, but GSU has a guy old enough to be his father playing quarterback (not really...the age difference is only six years).

I expect a close game here. If CCU loses this one, they may be in a tailspin. They definitely need it more than GSU does.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5

Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm not sure why this line is down, but I like it. Jared Hollins has looked good enough in relief of Bishop Davenport. Davenport is expected to play, but stranger things have happened.

Pick: South Alabama -13.5

(4) Miami (FL) (-16.5) at Clemson

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is one of those lines that has been open since before the season. It spiked after Clemson got embarrassed by LSU, but has started slipping a little more.

Miami has looked almost invincible. Crafty veteran Gio Lopez was able to come back on them. Freshman Tait Reynolds likely won't be able to.

Pick: Miami (FL) -16.5

(12) Texas Tech (-12.5) at Colorado

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Folsom Field has claimed a lot of wayward travelers. The Ralphies have moved away from Julian Lewis and are better off for it. Isaac Wilson wasn't great, but he didn't turn the ball over either.

The leash is short on either quarterback, and the go-go offense hasn't resulted in a lot of points. It's not enough points to move me off of Tech.

Pick: Texas Tech -12.5

Washington at (18) USC (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Both fanbases want to lose because both fanbases want the coaches fired. Man, I love college football. Washington RB Jayden Limar suffered an elbow injury in the opener and is expected to play this week.

Jayden Limar, Washington
5’10/210 Senior RB
4-Star HS Recruit (RB19)

Limar (#17) transferred from Oregon looking for a larger role, but suffered an elbow injury in Washington’s opener.

He should return against USC this week https://t.co/XYaQbJXIqW

— Durst (@Durst_NFLDraft) September 29, 2026

All of Washington's problems can be traced back to the lack of a run game. If that problem is alleviated, this is a winnable game.

Pick: Washington +9.5

Utah State at (22) Boise State (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, that's a lot of points. If we can't trust Dylan Riley, who can we trust?

Pick: Boise State -20.5

Temple at South Florida (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Outside of D.J. Crowther, this USF offense is a disaster. I wouldn't be shocked if they lost outright.

Pick: Temple +6.5

Army (-1.5) at Louisiana Tech 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Jalen Mickens is wasted on this Bulldogs team. I have to take Army's option for under a field goal.

Pick: Mississippi State -6.5

(6) Indiana (-23.5) at Rutgers

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Curt Cignetti likely got after this team after last Friday. We're going to see it here.

Pick: Indiana -23.5

Arkansas State at Louisiana (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Yeah, Lunch Winfield is good for at least a touchdown.

Pick: Louisiana -6.5

Fresno State at Washington State (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is a marquee game in the new Pac-12. It may not play like it, but I do expect a good game. You don't mess with Wazzu on the Palouse.

Pick: Washington State -1.5

Baylor at Arizona State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

You have two mistake-prone quarterbacks. This ought to be a fun one unless you're a fan of either team. For us degenerates that just love more college football after 10 hours, it's going to be bliss.

Pick: Arizona State -3.5

Texas State (-6.5) at San Diego State 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

A mumps outbreak has taken over the San Diego State football program. Honestly, I was on the Texas State side anyway. This offense has been Iowa circa 2023.

San Diego State's football team is dealing with a mumps outbreak as it prepares for Saturday's game against Texas State.

A bulletin to San Diego State students from the university on Wednesday said San Diego County Public Health Series had confirmed 14 cases and that the…

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 1, 2026

If this goes over a touchdown, I may have to think about it a little more.

Pick: Texas State -6.5

Cincinnati at Arizona (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Cincinnati is going to make this tough. Arizona's run defense has been a strength this year. Giovanni Richardson could make his return this week. There are enough factors that keep pushing me to Arizona.

Pick: Arizona -6.5

San Jose State at Hawaii (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I know that Hawaii has looked awful, but San Jose State has been worse. There is a lot going on in this one.

Ken Niumatalolo played at Hawaii. So did Timmy Chang. Current San Jose quarterback Luke Weaver was a backup at Hawaii last year. That makes me hesitant to put any significant wager on this. Hawaii is the better team, if that means anything.

Pick: Hawaii -2.5

I somehow ended up with 25 three-point picks this week. I'm either going to make up a lot of ground or fail spectacularly. I have more high bets than low bets this week.

More College Football Analysis

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!