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Matt's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 3 of 2026. His QB lineups advice for Week 3 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Week 3 is where the early-season fantasy football picture starts to come into focus. Two weeks of usage, matchups, and production give us more information to work with, but it’s still important not to overreact to a small sample. Some quarterbacks are showing signs of sustainable fantasy production, while others are benefiting from circumstances that may not last.
This is also the week where matchup matters even more. A quarterback coming off a big performance could be walking into a much tougher defensive environment. At the same time, another who hasn’t quite delivered yet could have the perfect opportunity to break out. The key is separating the quarterbacks whose numbers are telling us something from those whose fantasy value may be inflated.
With Week 3 approaching, let’s break down three quarterbacks who could deliver a fantasy boom and three who could disappoint. These are the quarterbacks worth starting, sitting, or at least thinking twice about before locking in your lineup.
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Week 3 - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Tyler Shough- QB, New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders
While the Las Vegas Raiders defense has improved early in 2026, it still allows 16.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, above the 16-point solid-start metric. The sample is just two games, but the Raiders have allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards, with just 184 per contest thus far.
Tyler Shough zips it in to Chris Olave for SIX 🎯
NOvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/oDswfhPi71— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
As for Tyler Shough, he has quietly posted back-to-back 22-plus fantasy performances and has averaged 23.8 fantasy points this season, the fifth-most among quarterbacks. Right now, Shough leads the NFL in completions (62), passing attempts (90), and passing yards (662). Shough has also thrown four touchdown passes while adding one additional score on the ground.
This isn’t an accidental spike in production; we saw it in the second half of last year when Should was a top-10 fantasy quarterback. From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Shough averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, tying Dak Prescott for the eighth-highest average over that eight-game stretch.
The underlying metrics through two weeks are promising for sustainability, as Shough has posted a 78.1 passing grade, a 7.3% big-time throw rate, and an adjusted completion rate of 80.2%.
Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Many may consider Jalen Hurts a set-it-and-forget-it option at quarterback, but some concerns remain heading into Week 3. First, Saquon Barkley suffered a stinger early in that Week 2 contest, which limited his touches. Second, Dallas Goedert left the game with a knee injury. Those are two major components of this Eagles offense.
Even without two important cogs in the passing game, the matchup with the Bears is one of the best on the fantasy docket this week. Chicago is allowing 33.8 fantasy points per game this season, and the Carolina Panthers are responsible for most of it. Chicago managed to subdue Carson Wentz in poor weather conditions, but that is more on the weather than the Bears' defense.
Since 2025, Chicago has allowed 19.7 fantasy points per game to the position, the fifth-most.
Hurts enters Week 3 averaging 21.4 fantasy points per contest, the ninth-most, and sits 10th in the NFL in passing yards. Hurts is best known for his rushing upside, and while that is still a big part of his game, more consistent passing makes him extremely dangerous. It also doesn’t hurt to have DeVonta Smith as an option to get the ball to.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Through two games, Bryce Young is one of three NFL quarterbacks in the 600-yard club. It’s Young, Shough, and C.J. Stroud. Exactly how we all envisioned it back in August.
Bryce Young drops it in the 🪣 to Xavier Legette!
CARvsATL on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Ia62dGy6wX— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
Once is a fluke; twice catches my attention; three times, it becomes a pattern. Young has now produced 32.4 fantasy points and 24.1 fantasy points in back-to-back contests, averaging 28.3 on the season, second only to Josh Allen (38.2). Sure, Young produced against two defenses that struggle to stop opposing quarterbacks in fantasy (Chicago/Atlanta), but he did the job.
Week 3 features a much more difficult matchup…on paper. In 2025, the Cleveland Browns held opposing quarterbacks to 13.4 fantasy points. In two games this year, Cleveland is surrendering 25.8 per contest, allowing five touchdown passes to Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield.
Young has some weapons on offense, including Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Darren Waller (two touchdowns last week). Coker and McMillan each have 18 targets through two games. Coker has turned his 18 targets into 16 receptions for 204 yards, while McMillan's 18 targets have led to 10 receptions for 176 yards. Both rank inside the top 10 in receiving yards this season.
Week 3 - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Malik Willis - QB, Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
In two contests against the Raiders and 49ers, Malik Willis currently ranks as the QB20 in fantasy, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game. This week's matchup doesn’t get any easier. The Chiefs allow just 162.5 passing yards per game (fourth-fewest) and surrender fewer than 10 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
In Week 1, the Chiefs limited Bo Nix to 17 of 28 passing for 131 yards, allowing a touchdown pass, but also forcing an interception. In Week 2, against the Colts, Daniel Jones completed 22 of 31 passes, finishing with a touchdown and an interception in that overtime loss.
Kwity Paye had four sacks in 408 pass-rushing snaps for the Colts last season.
Here are his three sacks in 24 pass-rushing snaps for the Raiders on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/Kr1Cp5qxog
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 14, 2026
Willis has already shown a concerning floor. Miami’s offense has allowed five sacks (sacks are a quarterback stat), and Willis completed only 15 passes in Week 1 and ran only one designed play. Then, in Week 2, we saw another four sacks and just 14 completions.
The upside is still there. Willis is an excellent athlete and could rack up rushing yards while playing from behind, but that’s a risky bet against a strong Kansas City defense. With Caleb Douglas dealing with an ankle injury, that’s one less option in the passing game.
Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens
Now, the people have asked for less obvious sits and bolder takes, and I am a man of the people.
Dak Prescott enters Week 3 against the Ravens as the QB8 in fantasy, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game, but a large portion of that is propped up by the 29.8 fantasy performance last week against one of the worst defenses in the Washington Commanders. Give credit where it is due: Prescott dropped four touchdown passes in a matchup built for him.
However, Week 1 against the Giants was a different story as he was limited to 15.4 fantasy points.
Baltimore ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (191.0) through two games, facing the Colts and the Shough-led Saints.
Baltimore is a three-point favorite in this game against the Cowboys in Brazil. If the Ravens control the game with their running attack, Dallas could have fewer total possessions and fewer high-value passing opportunities. Unlike quarterbacks such as Willis or Jayden Daniels, Prescott generally needs passing touchdowns and volume to reach a strong fantasy score. A low-volume game creates a thinner floor.
Starting left guard Tyler Smith is also expected to miss the first four to six weeks, which is a meaningful concern against a physical Ravens front.
Joe Burrow - QB, Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
You wanted bold, so Joe Burrow, you’ve made the list. Burrow has been solid this season, completing 68.2% of his passes for 462 yards, but three touchdown passes seem somewhat underwhelming.
Burrow is currently living on brand name recognition, and the truth is his 15.7 fantasy points per game this season currently ranks as the QB19. It’s not like he had one bad game to drive those numbers down. He posted 15.2 fantasy points in Week 1 and followed that up with 16.7 in Week 2, just above that solid-start threshold.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been excellent early. Through Weeks 1–2, the Steelers rank near the top of the league in defensive EPA, including -24.59 passing defensive EPA. That suggests a difficult environment for Cincinnati’s passing game.
Recent health is worth monitoring. Burrow played through a back issue in Week 2 and was reported active without limitations, but any recurrence would matter. I’m literally a sneeze away from a back issue any given week, but that’s just me.
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