Frank Ammirante's Fantasy Baseball Fades

March 20, 2026

Frank Ammirante's fantasy baseball fades for 2026 drafts, early-round players he's avoiding as potential league-losers. He believes they are potential landmines.

It's almost time for the 2026 MLB season, so it's the perfect moment to drop my 10 must-avoid players. Each of these players goes in the first eight rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.

The reason why I'm avoiding these players can vary from injury risk, lack of production, or just overpriced ADPs.

With that in mind, here are my 10 must-avoid players for 2026 fantasy baseball. Stay away from these potential landmines.

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Francisco Lindor (SS - NYM)

Francisco Lindor is still a fade for me.

It's not only the hamate bone.

He also had elbow surgery in the offseason.

I think we're headed for a down year by his standards. https://t.co/6UrkA97VBd

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 1, 2026

Francisco Lindor has dealt with a hamate bone injury and was forced to undergo elbow surgery in the offseason. I don't like that combination for a hitter who is entering his age-32 season. As players get older, there's always a risk that we can see a drop-off in steals. What if Lindor goes 25-25 instead of 30-30?

Would it shock you to see that with a .255 average? While that's still good production, I think it's risky at his current cost. I'd rather take a shot on a young player like Zach Neto, who can easily go 30-30 or better after what we've seen from him the last two seasons.

Manny Machado (3B - SD)

Manny Machado is a similar fade to Lindor, except that he hasn't dealt with injuries leading up to the season. My issue here is that I don't see much of a ceiling. If you want to pay a premium for a high floor in a thin position, I won't fault you. But Machado has dropped below 30 homers in each of the last two seasons and is now 33 years old.

What happens if the stolen bases dry up? Yes, he's stolen 14 and 11 in the last two years, but he was in the single digits in four of his previous five. If you're getting .265 BA with 27 homers and six steals, that's not exciting enough for me at his current cost.

Chris Sale (SP - ATL)

Out of all the players with top-40 ADP, Chris Sale is by far the oldest at 36 years old.

For that one reason, I'm out.

I know, there hasn't been a decline in skill.

But you're paying a premium for a 36-year-old.

I'll take Cole Ragans over Chris Sale without hesitation.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 16, 2026

Chris Sale hasn't shown any decline in skill, even in an injury-plagued season last year. However, we're talking about a veteran pitcher now entering his age-36 season. He's dealt with injuries throughout his career, so you have injury + age risk with this pick. I prefer to wait a few picks and go with a younger arm like Cole Ragans.

Remember, "Father Time is undefeated." If you tread lightly on players in their mid-thirties, especially those priced at a premium, you generally come out ahead. That's my play with the Sale fade here.

Max Fried (SP - NYY)

Max Fried is a dependable innings-eater who can be an asset for your ratios, but the strikeout rate has always been underwhelming. Fried has put up a sub-24% strikeout rate in each of his last two seasons. That's not exciting enough to pay his current cost. This is pretty much expensive, Framber Valdez.

I prefer to swing for the fences a bit more with my builds, which is why I pass on Fried and target players like Kyle Bradish or Eury Perez instead. Simply put, this feels like a floor pick for me, so I've been avoiding Fried in my drafts.

Logan Webb (SP - SF)

Logan Webb is similar to Fried: an innings-eater who you can count on for a ton of volume. While Webb was able to bump up his strikeout rate to 26.2% last year, there's always a risk that he can revert to previous career norms. Webb put up a 20.7%, 22.8%, and 20.5% strikeout rate in his previous three seasons.

If Webb goes back to those rates, it will be tough for him to pay off his current cost. As with Fried, I like to take shots on pitchers like Bradish and Perez instead. I like to prioritize rates over volume, so I'm out on Webb.

Rafael Devers (1B - SF)

Rafael Devers is just a fade on a player who is now in a pitcher-friendly environment. We saw him bat .236 with a 29.4% strikeout rate in 395 plate appearances with the Giants. I'm concerned about that increase in strikeout rate.

Instead of going with Devers, I like to target a less-proven player with an improvement in the team context. Vinnie Pasquantino now gets to play at Kauffman Stadium with the fences moved in, giving him more opportunities for home runs, and he is going off the board a few rounds later. Devers is too much of a risk on your batting average right now.

Jose Altuve (2B, OF - HOU)

Jose Altuve is another "veteran with a track record" fade. These players maintain solid prices because they've produced at a high level for several reasons. But I prefer to be a year early rather than a year late when fading these players.

Altuve is now entering his age-36 season. Can we really count on him to stay healthy for the entire year? I'd rather not take that risk with a player in the later stages of his career. The risk of a Marcus Semien-type of falloff is real.

Junior Caminero (3B - TB)

Junior Caminero hitting 45 HR in a minor league park is the exact same as when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 48 HR in a minor league park.

The regression is going to hit hard this year, just like with Vlad.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 15, 2026

Junior Caminero is an extremely talented young hitter, but the fade here is simple. You have a player with one year of elite production, going from an extreme hitter's park to a pitcher-friendly environment. It's tough to hit at Tropicana Field due to the batter's eye. We've seen that affect other hitters in the past, including Williy Adames. What if Caminero takes some time to adjust?

At his current cost, he needs to hit close to 40 home runs to pay off ADP. Why would I take Caminero when I can wait a few rounds and just go with Austin Riley? That's my thing here. I'd rather go with someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is a much more proven hitter. I get it, Caminero is exciting, but this feels like a year to avoid him. Let him adjust to Tropicana Field first.

Nick Kurtz (1B - ATH)

Nick Kurtz burst onto the scene last year, putting up a historic rookie season. You have to like that he continues to hit in a minor-league bandbox, but you're now paying a premium for a hitter who posted a 30.9% strikeout rate last year. Of course, that can easily improve, as it's a young player in his second year, but you have to pay a second-round price to find out. That feels risky to me.

Kurtz can be a major drain on the batting average if he doesn't fix his strikeout rate. It's by far the highest among the hitters at this price. As with Caminero, I would rather take Guerrero at this cost.

Kyle Schwarber (UT - PHI)

Kyle Schwarber is one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball, coming off an epic season in which he hit .240 with 56 home runs and 10 stolen bases. But here's the thing: Schwarber's consecutive .240+ BA seasons have made us forget that he can easily hit below the Mendoza line, which he did back in 2023 (.197 BA).

Now entering his age-33 season, I don't want to take the chance that my second-round pick hits below .230. I like to prioritize batting average early, that way I can take some risks on power hitters with low BAs later in the draft. For that reason, I'm out on Schwarber.

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