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Jamie Steed's ten fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Jac Caglianone, Jesus Luzardo, Brenton Doyle, and more.
Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider. And the latter is what these are! Sort of.
I won't tell you I think Paul Skenes will record 200 strikeouts this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I think these predictions have a legitimate chance of occurring this year, but I'm not banking on them. They are more of a guide to how I feel about certain players. Positively, of course.
For more of our staff's bold predictions, check out some other articles in our Bold Predictions series. And don't forget to download our free mobile app with alerts and to follow the RotoBaller team on X for all your offseason news and articles.
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Jesus Luzardo is the Number One Starting Pitcher
If it weren't for two starts last season, this wouldn't even be that bold a prediction. Of the 80 earned runs Luzardo allowed in 2025, 20 of them came in back-to-back outings against the Brewers and Blue Jays. If we were to remove those two starts in which Luzardo seemingly was tipping his pitches, he'd have had a 3.03 ERA.
Instead, Luzardo's 2025 fantasy line was a 15-7 W-L record, 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 216 Ks (183 2/3 innings). I'm not one for cherry-picking stats and numbers to fit a narrative. But no pitcher had their ERA damaged so much in such a short time. We can see the impact those outings had in the graph below.
Regression was always likely. But Luzardo's 3.25 xFIP was more of an accurate reflection of his season than his actual ERA. That xFIP ranked ninth best among the 52 qualified pitchers. Only four other pitchers tallied more wins, and only a trio of pitchers recorded more strikeouts than Luzardo.
If Luzardo can stay healthy once again, there's no reason he can't contend for Cy Young honors. Those two blowups are the reason that Luzardo is barely a top-20 starting pitcher in drafts, rather than being a top-10 option. I expect him to be drafted as an SP1 in 2027 on the back of an outstanding 2026.
Jac Caglianone Hits 40 Home Runs
I've been banging the Caglianone drum all offseason, so why stop now? The young outfielder was completely outshone by Nick Kurtz's phenomenal rookie season. And despite being drafted two picks after Kurtz, Caglianone was regarded as having more power potential.
In the 20-80 scouting grades, Caglainone's power potential was routinely regarded as 70 or 80. That was apparent when he hit 20 homers in 66 minor league games last year before being promoted. There's no doubting that Caglianone struggled in the majors, hitting .157/.237/.295 with seven homers in 62 games.
But the experience will have done him the world of good. What will also help Caglianone is the Royals bringing in and lowering their outfield walls. Everything is hinting at Caglianone having a big season, and it wouldn't be surprising if he follows Kurtz's footsteps in 2026.
Brenton Doyle is a Top 10 Outfielder
Doyle's 2025 season was a letdown after what he did the year before. In 2024, Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs, 72 RBI, 82 runs, and 30 stolen bases. Doyle had a better reason than anyone else for his 2025 struggles. He and his family suffered an unimaginable tragedy.
There's no way of knowing exactly how that impacted Doyle. Some things are just not quantifiable. If Doyle has managed to spend the offseason in a better place, we could see a return to that 2024 version. If we look at Doyle's 2024 Statcast Profile, it's not like he needs to be an elite hitter to return serious value.
Doyle is an elite defender. He ranked in the 98th percentile for Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2024 and in the 92nd percentile last year. He also has elite speed, with 2025's 29.5 ft/sec average sprint speed ranking in the 96th percentile. All Doyle needs to do is rediscover his hitting.
With the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field to call home, Doyle has the potential to seriously improve upon last year's .233/.274/.376 slash line. At the very least, Doyle is someone we should be rooting for. Rooting for him on your fantasy rosters is set to pay dividends in 2026.
Trevor McDonald Leads the Giants in Saves
Time for something from left field. Well, the bullpen in this case. Unless you're a fervent Giants fan, you likely won't know who McDonald is. He only has 18 innings of experience in the majors, with 15 of them coming last year. He impressed in that small sample.
McDonald started two games and pitched in relief once. He had a 1.80 ERA and struck out 14 batters, walking just two. Given McDonald had a 5.31 ERA in Triple-A last year (142 1/3 innings), his success in those three outings for the Giants was a surprise.
McDonald has impressed once again in spring and is expected to make the Opening Day roster as a reliever. Given his experience as a starter in the minors, McDonald would be suited to a long relief role. His arsenal suggests he could be useful in high-leverage spots, however.
McDonald largely relies on a sinker and a slider, mixing in a changeup as well. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but had a 29.6% Chase% and 48.1% Whiff% while inducing weak contact in last year's limited sample. Those are all things that will help McDonald excel as a closer.
Ryan Walker is set to open the season as the Giants' closer. That's not a role he has performed well in. Last year, Walker had a 6.43 ERA in save situations and a 2.16 ERA in non-save situations. While Walker has pitched well in spring, it remains to be seen if he can carry that into the regular season.
Any signs of struggles from Walker early on, and he'll find himself on the hot seat. Without a standout option to replace Walker, McDonald could find himself getting a chance to close out games. McDonald might end up with 20 saves if the dominoes fall that way.
Parker Messick is the Best Starting Pitcher in Cleveland
At this point, I'm not sure what more Messick has to do to secure a roster spot. He's put up excellent numbers throughout the minor leagues, as we can see from the below.
| Level | IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| Single-A | 56.2 | 3.02 | 1.09 | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| High-A | 133.0 | 3.99 | 1.31 | 27.2% | 8.4% |
| Double-A | 65.2 | 2.06 | 1.01 | 32.3% | 8.0% |
| Triple-A | 98.2 | 3.47 | 1.22 | 29.1% | 10.3% |
| All levels | 354.0 | 3.33 | 1.19 | 28.5% | 8.5% |
Messick deservedly got the call to the majors last year. In seven starts, he excelled. Messick had a 3-1 W-L record, 2.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 38 Ks (39 2/3 innings). Messick is performing well in spring, and if we compare his 2025 numbers to the other Guardian starters, it's difficult to make a case for Messick not to be on the Opening Day roster.
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| Parker Messick | 39.2 | 2.72 | 3.15 | 3.43 | 1.31 | 23.0% | 3.6% |
| Tanner Bibee | 182.1 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.15 | 1.23 | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Gavin Williams | 167.2 | 3.06 | 4.08 | 4.35 | 1.27 | 24.6% | 11.8% |
| Logan Allen | 156.2 | 4.25 | 4.72 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 18.0% | 9.2% |
| Slade Cecconi | 132.0 | 4.30 | 4.09 | 4.19 | 1.19 | 20.0% | 5.9% |
| Joey Cantillo | 95.1 | 3.21 | 3.66 | 3.83 | 1.26 | 26.9% | 10.5% |
I'm fully accepting of the fact that Messick's numbers are a small sample. But throw in his minor league numbers, and there's no reason he shouldn't be pitching in the major leagues in April. Bibee and Williams are locks for rotation spots. Cecconi and Cantillo should also be in the rotation.
It's difficult to make a case that Allen will give the Guardians a better chance of competing than Messick. As long as Messick is in the rotation by the end of April, I would not be surprised if he's leading the team towards a playoff spot and finds himself as the most-added pitcher in fantasy leagues this year.
Nolan Gorman Hits 30 Home Runs with a Career Best Batting Average
This could be Gorman's last chance to prove he can be an MLB hitter. This will be his fifth year in the majors, and his last two have been pretty putrid. In 2023, Gorman hit .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers in 119 games. Since then, he's hit .204/.284/.385 with 33 homers in 218 games.
With the Cardinals now looking to the future, Gorman should get plenty of playing time. As we've seen in the past, he has the power to hit 30 home runs in a season. He's failed to show he can hit for a decent average, and his .669 OPS over the last two seasons isn't going to keep him in the lineup.
Gorman actually had better numbers against left-handed pitchers (LHP) than righties last year. He has a career 100 wRC+ against LHP and RHP. Platooning Gorman isn't going to help. Playing every day should help, and that looks like it'll be the case in 2026. Gorman is in the last chance saloon and expect him to come out swinging (for the fences).
Justin Crawford Steals 50 Bases
Crawford looks like breaking camp as the Phillies' starting center fielder. He's had a solid, if unspectacular, spring. That has come on the back of an outstanding Minor League campaign. In 112 Triple-A games last year, Crawford hit .334/.411/.452 with seven homers, 47 RBI, 88 runs, and 46 steals.
With 145 stolen bases in 325 minor league games across all levels, it's easy to salivate over what Crawford could do in the majors. While the power is lacking, Crawford has a career .322/.385/.446 slash line in the minor leagues, so it's not like he can't hit.
Crawford doesn't need to hit .300 to steal a ton of bases. We can expect him to develop more power over time, and Crawford could be on his way to having a similar career to his father Carl Crawford, who had five seasons of 50+ steals. His son could get his first, of what could be many, in 2026.
James Outman Becomes Relevant Again
Let me take you back to 2023. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll won the respective Rookie of the Year Awards. The Texas Rangers won their first World Series title. And James Matthew Outman emerged from nowhere to have a stellar season, ultimately coming third in the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Outman hit .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 70 RBI, 86 runs, and 16 bases in 151 games for the Dodgers. Unfortunately, things went downhill from there. Outman played just 53 games for the Dodgers in 2024, hitting a paltry .147/.256/.265. Last year was worse.
Outman hit .103/.205/.282 in 22 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Twins. In 37 games for Minnesota, Outman hit .147/.221/.337 with a 43.3% K%. Why would anyone think Outman could be a fantasy-relevant individual again? Because of his spring, of course!
In his first 12 games this spring, Outman had two homers, seven steals, and was hitting .241/.378/.448. Given the Twins are partial to platooning their outfielders and don't look like they'll be any good this year, a productive spring is all it would take for Outman to be part of the Twins' 26-man roster.
As I mentioned with Doyle earlier, you don't have to have a glittering Statcast Profile to be a solid fantasy option. This is what Outman's looked like in 2023, when he finished the year as a top 40 outfielder.
Even back then, Outman struck out too much. He made decent contact, but nothing mouth-watering. If he can recapture the magic of 2023, Outman could easily be a top 200 hitter in 2026, which would put him back on the radar of fantasy managers in all but shallow leagues.
Brady House is a Top 12 Third Baseman
Continuing the theme of "his team is not good so he'll play every day regardless", House is someone I actually kind of like in 2026. He's a former top-5 prospect in the Nationals system and has been a solid performer in the minor leagues.
House got his shot in the majors last year. While he didn't excel, he didn't disgrace himself either. In 73 games, House had four homers, 29 RBI, 26 runs, and five steals with a .234/.252/.322 slash line. His 2.9% BB% isn't going to cut it, but he was drafted as a potential power hitter.
He has at least demonstrated that in spring, with three home runs in his first 10 games of preseason. House also had a .256 xBA (expected batting average) last year, so he could hit for a decent average. Third base isn't a position of depth in fantasy, and House is set to be a mainstay in the Nationals' lineup.
If his power potential does materialize and House can perform like many in Washington have hoped he can, the former first-round pick could open some eyes among fantasy managers. At the very least, House could end up being a viable corner infield option in standard leagues.
Eli White has a 20/20 season
Entering spring, White wasn't even assured a roster spot. Following Jurickson Profar's 162-game suspension, he's in the mix for platooning with Mike Yastrzemski in left field. Given the Braves' recent track record with injuries, it wouldn't take much for a full-time role to open up for White.
Last year, White played a career-high 105 games. He also set career highs in home runs (10), RBI (35), and runs (43). White also had 10 steals, meaning he was halfway to a 20/20 season despite making just 271 plate appearances.
White is 31 years old and has only played 171 games in the previous five seasons. But the Braves could do with a heart-warming story to rid their minds of the injury woes. White, having a career year as a 31-year-old, is exactly the kind of thing every baseball fan can get behind. Let's make it happen, Atlanta!
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