Champ or Chump: Jacob Melton, Daniel Palencia, and Jac Caglianone Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

June 3, 2025

Are Jacob Melton, Daniel Palencia, and Jac Caglianone fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value.

We've officially reached June, and that means your league's standings page starts to matter. No lead in any stat is "safe" with more than half the season to go, but you can identify areas of opportunity for improvement. How are you on steals? What about saves? Do you need power?

The waiver wire might have a solution if you answered "yes" to any of those questions. Jacob Melton secured a single in his first MLB game on June 1 and appears primed to contribute steals and some pop if Houston plays him. Daniel Palencia will probably get saves for the next two months. Jac Caglianone has huge power potential and may have addressed his most glaring weakness.

What can we expect from these three over the rest of the year? Let's find out!

Jacob Melton (OF, Houston Astros)

1% Rostered

Melton ranks second among Astros prospects per MLB Pipeline, but his call-up seems to have slipped under the radar in fantasy circles. We don't know how Houston will deploy the 24-year-old outfielder yet, but consistent playing time should produce a fantasy impact.

Melton delivers a little of everything. Here is his FanGraphs scouting report from 2024:

Melton's hit tool is a work in progress, but 65 raw power is intriguing, and scouts think he'll get to it in games eventually. He also has plus wheels, adding that speed element fantasy gamers love. Melton's MiLB.com scouting report is even more optimistic:

This one suggests that Melton's hit tool needs work but is more advanced than the FanGraphs report indicates, with improved power, speed, and glove work. This is a 2025 report, so the discrepancy may be due to timing. Regardless, this is an interesting skill set for our purposes.

Melton consistently delivers the power and speed combo meal his scouting report suggests he's capable of. He first reached Double-A (Corpus Christi) in 2023 and struggled to a .250/.304/.558 line with five homers and five steals in 56 plate appearances. A .258 BABIP and 28.6 percent K% limited his batting average, and Melton's 15.9 percent SwStr% was alarming.

That said, Melton's 29.4 percent HR/FB suggested excellent pop, and his 7.1 percent BB% suggested some pitch recognition ability. You can't just prorate MiLB samples this small, but even half this pace would produce a 30/30 season. Melton even posted a 100% success rate on SB attempts.

Melton returned to Corpus Christi in 2024 and slashed .248/.306/.442 with 10 homers and nine swipes in 251 PAs. The surface stats look similar, but Melton reined in the strikeouts with a 22.3 percent K% and 10.5 percent SwStr%. It cost him some pop as his 17.2 percent HR/FB fell more than 10 points, but he still produced better than a 20 HR pace.

Otherwise, Melton's .284 BABIP appeared prime for positive regression, and he went 9-for-13 (69 percent) on SB attempts. His 7.2 percent BB% essentially repeated his 2023 small sample, so overall, it's safe to say that Melton made developmental progress.

Melton was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A (Sugar Land), where he hit .260/.314/.405 with five homers and 11 SBs in 192 PAs. He struck out more often at the higher level, but his 10.3 percent SwStr% and 31.4 percent chase rate were better than his 25 percent K%. His .331 BABIP boosted his average, with his 12.8 percent HR/FB appearing primed for positive regression.

Melton kept working walks with a 6.8 percent BB%, and he was perfect on his 11 SB attempts. With a strong glove and reasonable offensive upside, Melton was widely expected to debut for the Astros in 2025.

Sadly, back and groin problems limited Melton during spring training and the early part of the season. He hit .254/.371/.508 with two homers and three steals over 71 PAs with Sugar Land before his call-up, demonstrating outstanding plate discipline in the small sample (8.0 percent SwStr%, 22.7 percent chase, 15.5 percent BB%, 21.1 percent K%).

Melton went 3-for-4 (75%) on SB attempts and got his HR/FB back to 18.2 percent, so the power-speed combo is still present. His .310 BABIP seems reasonable for someone with plus wheels, potentially foreshadowing what it might look like with the Astros.

Where Melton plays isn't obvious, but the team must have a plan. Melton hit eighth in his MLB debut, suggesting Houston won't throw him into an important lineup role right away. The team has fallen short of expectations while dealing with multiple injuries, however, so Melton might move up if his performance warrants it.

The 64th overall pick in the 2022 draft has some warts. The Astros want him to lift the ball more often to take advantage of his plus raw power, and he's hitting just .228 against breaking stuff as a pro. Still, the power and speed are undeniable, and Melton has the glove to play centerfield, giving this author Mike Cameron vibes.

Somebody should roll the dice on this potential Champ in way more than one percent of leagues.

Daniel Palencia (RP, Chicago Cubs)

41% Rostered

The 25-year-old Palencia has unexpectedly become Chicago's closer with a 1.74 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, and 3.19 xERA over 20 2/3 IP this season. The Cubs are a strong team, so rostering their closer for free is filled with fantasy upside. The $100,000 question is whether he'll hold the job.

Palencia doesn't deserve his 1.74 ERA, but his ERA estimators suggest a low-3s type of guy. He also has a 28.2 percent K% against a 9.0 percent BB%, nearly getting him to the magic 20 percent K-BB%. There are solid underlying skills here.

Unfortunately, Palencia's arsenal isn't that deadly. While he throws five pitches, his sinker, splitter, and curve are all of the seldom-used, show-me variety. That means Palencia is primarily a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider, and both have warts.

Palencia's heater averages 99.2 mph with a 2,319 RPM spin rate, and its 10.3 percent SwStr% is strong. However, its 52.9 percent Zone% is low for a primary fastball, and Palencia has been fortunate with it according to Baseball Savant's xStats.

It's .115 average against masks a .251 xBA, while its .212 slugging percentage conceals a .390 xSLG.

Palencia's slider has a 61.1 percent Zone% that's higher than his fastball, but its 13.9 percent SwStr% and 17.9 percent chase rate limit its viability as a put-away pitch. He has to retire hitters with strikes since the heater and slider don't generate chase, which could become a liability in crunch time.

Granted, the Cubs are short on better options. Ryan Pressly was expected to handle the ninth, but his 4.71 ERA and 13.8 percent K% remove him from consideration. Porter Hodge is dealing with an oblique injury and has a 5.12 ERA and 13.1 percent BB% that likely disqualify him as well. Brad Keller's 2.22 ERA is impressive, but he lacks dominant stuff and has never previously matched his current 24.8 percent K%.

Drew Pomeranz has a 0.00 ERA in 13 2/3 IP with a 30 percent K%, making him the biggest in-house challenger to Palencia. However, Pomeranz is left-handed and the team would probably prefer to use him against tough lefties rather than save him for the ninth.

Palencia should keep the closer's job until the trade deadline, but all bets are off once July 31 rolls around. Every contender wants to improve its bullpen, and Palencia only has two good (not elite) pitches and little experience in the role. That makes him a Champ in the short term but a Chump long term, as he won't be fantasy-viable without saves.

Jac Caglianone (1B/OF, Kansas City Royals)

45% Rostered

Caglianone has tons of hype as a first-round pick with 40-HR potential. Check out his FanGraphs scouting report:

Caglianone's hit tool isn't ready, but his raw power potential tops the scale, and he's expected to get to it in games. He can't run or field, though he has a cannon arm that's wasted at first base. His MiLB.com scouting report is similar:

As usual, MiLB.com is more optimistic overall with better hit and power grades than FanGraphs. The upside is clear, but both reports suggest plate discipline/approach issues that could prevent Caglianone from making an immediate impact. Luckily, they appear unfounded.

Caglianone didn't crack the high minors until this season, slashing .322/.394/.553 with nine homers in 175 PAs for Double-A (Northwest Arkansas). A .367 BABIP and 27.3 percent HR/FB inflated his line, but his 10.9 percent BB% and 21.1 percent K% weren't bad at all. His 12.5 percent SwStr% wasn't as bad as his scouting report, either.

The Royals aggressively promoted Caglianone to Triple-A (Omaha), where he hit .319/.370/.773 with six homers in 54 PAs. His .265 BABIP and 35.3 percent HR/FB were probably small-sample flukes in opposite directions, but the plate discipline matters most. His 9.3 percent BB% and 16.7 percent K% were excellent, backed by an 11.4 percent SwStr% and 33 percent chase rate.

We don't have much data to work with, but what we have suggests Caglianone's plate discipline is fine. That doesn't mean the top prospect is without risk in fantasy. The Royals plan to use him in the outfield, meaning he'll have to learn a new position while adapting to MLB pitching. Of course, he should also gain multipositional eligibility quickly.

Kauffman Stadium is also the worst ballpark in MLB for left-handed power hitters with a 70 HR factor per Baseball Savant from 2023-2025. Caglianone has the raw power to render park factors irrelevant, but it's something to consider.

Still, both of these issues are nitpicks at worst. Guys with Caglianone's power are few and far between, and this Champ should be near universally-rostered just in case he hits the ground running.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis