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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Saturday, November 9, 2024. Every college football game of Week 11 of the 2024 season picked against the spread.
Where did this season go? We are in November already! We had 10 games before Saturday this week and have another lighter Saturday on tap. We still have 40 games to win some money on and I plan on doing just that. Are you with me?
I finished a solid 26-22 last week but missed on a lot of my bigger bets. Let's try and do better this week. I'm still above water. I am 258-251 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 11 (11/9/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Purdue at (2) Ohio State (-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. I'm taking Purdue, but I think I'm leaving this alone.
(4) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's no official word from Georgia Tech, but judging by the spread, Vegas thinks Haynes King is playing. I get the feeling that he will, too. King practiced this week and was already named captain of the game. Captains don't sit out a game this important if they can help it.
Key says Haynes King is still day to day, and will stay that way until the game. King has been practicing, so we will see where he's at come gametime.
Key did say that Haynes King will be a captain this week.
— GTFan (@SouthRecruiting) November 7, 2024
I feel like that's already baked into the spread. Miami's season derailed after the disaster against Tech in Miami. Many important pieces for the Hurricanes didn't live through that, but Xavier Restrepo did. The ones that were here want to erase that. Give me Miami.
Florida at (5) Texas (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The spread is climbing. Even if DJ Lagway can play, he won't be nearly as electric as he needs to be to get a defense's undivided attention. The Florida defense is playing well but it will wear down quickly if the Florida offense can't move the ball. Texas pulls away late and barely covers.
Minnesota (-6.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low with the way the Gophers have played. Give me Minnesota. It won in Champaign by more than this.
Syracuse at Boston College (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wasn't expecting this after the Orange downed the Hokies. Give me Syracuse.
West Virginia at Cincinnati (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
BREAKING: Garrett Greene is “doubtful” for #WVU’s game at Cincinnati on Saturday. “It’s possible he’ll play and he’ll travel with us, but right now it’s doubtful.”
— The Voice of Morgantown (@voicemorgantown) November 7, 2024
That seals it. I'll take Cincinnati at home.
Texas State (-7.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Am I the only one that respects the Warhawks around here? This is at least a half point too high and I wouldn't be shocked if ULM won outright.
Navy (-3.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Middies are in a tailspin, but USF says that Byrum Brown isn't guaranteed the job when he returns. The Bulls deserve to lose just for that. I'll take Navy.
Liberty (-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've been saying for weeks that this isn't the same Liberty team, but this still feels low. The Blue Raiders are that bad. I'll take Liberty, but lower the bet because of the hook.
Connecticut (-7.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Week 10 Performance
QB Jalen Kitna - UAB
• 404 Passing yards 6 TDs pic.twitter.com/ckZwxrMKTc
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) November 2, 2024
I don't buy it. Jalen Kitna has breathed life into the Blazers. UAB outright!
Marshall (-13.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marshall is 6-1-1 against the spread this year and just beat Monroe outright. I'll follow the Herd!
(3) Georgia (-2.5) at (16) Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Georgia at Ole Miss Thursday night injury report
Rebels got healthy since yesterday!
They must have elite trainers in Oxford pic.twitter.com/oSSaERFHNg
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 8, 2024
This line has deflated. Tre Harris is still doubtful, but Jordan Watkins has been upgraded to questionable. Is that enough to tank the line by five points? Something is going on here, but it feels like all smoke. Georgia blasted the Horns in Austin. I'll take UGA.
Michigan at (8) Indiana (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the first time that I've had to think about an Indiana bet in quite a while. I don't like the hook, but am I just basing this on the name brand of Michigan? I love Indiana and the way it plays, but I don't know ... this feels like too many. Give me Michigan. The Wolverines won't win, but by more than two touchdowns feels like a bit much.
(17) Iowa State (-2.5) vs. Kansas at Kansas City, MO
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I love that this line is falling because I'm not bailing on the Cyclones. This feels like easy money.
(23) Clemson (-6.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
#Hokies Practice Injury Updates:
- QB Kyron Drones is practicing
- RB Bhayshul Tuten is practicing
- CB Mansoor Delane is practicing
- LB Sam Brumfield is in a blue limited contact jersey
- WR Stephen Gosnell is in a blue limited contact jersey— Kolby Crawford (@kolby_crawford) November 6, 2024
This is looking good for the Hokies, but is it enough? I have questions about their ability to stop Phil Mafah. The Hokies have the talent to take this at home. I'll take Tech, but I'm not betting on this.
(25) Army (-4.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
North Texas has a potent offense, but that doesn't count for much if the other team holds the ball for 45 minutes. Army rolls!
Duke at North Carolina State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Obliterating Stanford is one thing. Beating a team with a solid defense is another. CJ Bailey is looking really good, though. I'll take the Pack in Raleigh.
San Jose State at Oregon State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Spartans defense has nullified the good of the offense. I'll take the Beavers.
Georgia State at James Madison (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high, especially considering the Panthers almost beat UConn in Hartford. I'll take GSU.
(20) Colorado (-4.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tahj Brooks is going to be able to run on Colorado as well, but the Colorado offense is more explosive than Iowa State's. I'm on the fence about this one. This feels like a game in which Colorado wins late if it wins at all. Give me Tech.
Kennesaw State at UTEP (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Owls have busted the last two spreads against Liberty and Western Kentucky. I think they can take this game in El Paso. I'll take the Owls.
Temple at Tulane (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. Points that Tulane has proved it can put up. I'll ride the Wave!
South Carolina (-4.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Come on now ... Texas didn't even beat the Commodores in Nashville by this. I'll take Vandy.
Jacksonville State (-9.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a believer in Tre Stewart and the Gamecocks. Give me JSU.
Arkansas State at Louisiana (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that hook, so I'll lower the bet. I'm still taking the Cajuns, though.
Western Kentucky (-18.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did you guys watch what Eric Rivers did to the Aggies? WKU has at least two receivers who are close to the caliber of Rivers. Hilltoppers roll!
Maryland at (1) Oregon (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. It's still as high as 27.5 in places and down as far as 23. I like it better in the 23 range, but the averages keep it at 24. We're splitting hairs, though. Oregon shouldn't have trouble covering this.
Mississippi State at (7) Tennessee (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Tennessee offense hasn't scored more than 28 points since it hung 71 on Kent back in Week 3. Give me the Bulldogs. They're not going to win, but I need to see Tennessee score at will again before I take it in these ridiculous spreads.
Central Florida at Arizona State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Don't mind me ... I'm just here for RJ Harvey against Cam Skattebo. Give me the Fun Devils, but I'm likely not touching this. I'm just going to enjoy the RB show.
UPDATE: Cam Skattebo is OUT for this game. I'm flipping to UCF and upping the bet!
Oklahoma State at TCU (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cowboys are cooked. Give me TCU.
Florida State at (10) Notre Dame (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Irish have to keep running it up. I'll take the Domers.
(11) Alabama (-2.5) at (14) LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the first time since 1999 neither Nick Saban nor Les Miles is on the sidelines for an Alabama/LSU game. It’s also the first time since 2006 neither Alabama nor LSU are ranked in the Top 10 at game-time...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 8, 2024
This game is not getting hurricaned as previously thought. It should be a perfectly "normal" atmosphere for Death Valley on a Saturday night with Bama in town. I'm taking LSU.
Oklahoma (-2.5) at (24) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Deion Burks and Jalil Farooq are finally expected to play for the Sooners, but should that be enough to move the line in Oklahoma's favor? Oklahoma desperately needs this game and had a nice scrimmage against Maine. I'm cautiously optimistic. Give me Oklahoma.
Washington at (6) Penn State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
JUST IN: @PennStateFball will play its White Out game against Washington on November 9. pic.twitter.com/ecRWE4luGs
— Onward State (@OnwardState) July 15, 2024
This whiteout game is so special that it's being streamed on Peacock. You can't even watch the WHITEOUT GAME without a freaking streaming service.
As for the game, Penn State has either lost or not covered in nine of the last 10 games after its first loss of the season. Washington is 0-4 on the road this year. We'll split the difference and cover both bases. Penn State wins but doesn't cover.
Nevada at (12) Boise State (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Want to know the funny thing? Fox passed on the Whiteout game to put this game on its network. Ashton Jeanty is altering the college football landscape (and covering Nevada, possibly by himself).
Virginia at (18) Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to take the Hoos, but they have been awful on the road. I don't like the half, though. Give me Virginia, but I'm not touching this.
UNLV (-12.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii has been trolling me lately, but now I have Hajj-Malik Williams and Ricky White III on my side. I'm taking it back!
Fresno State (-10.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno isn't good, but Air Force can't move the ball. I'll begrudgingly pick Fresno.
(9) BYU (-3.5) at Utah
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah vs BYU for the "Holy War"
All-time series: Utah leads 59-32-4
1922-1957: Utah led 28-1-4
1958-1971: Utah led 10-4
1972-1992: BYU led 19-2
1993-2005: Utah led 9-4
2006-2021: Utah led 10-4Next matchup, THIS WEEKEND: Saturday November 9, 2024 at Utah pic.twitter.com/ILJcIxdtUq
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) November 6, 2024
We go from the Revivalry last week to the Holy War this week. Don't you just love college football? 40 years ago, 9-0 BYU went up to Salt Lake and got the win that vaulted it to No. 1 in the polls ... a spot it wouldn't relinquish. There have been so many parallels to that 1984 season that I just have to go with BYU.
Utah State at (21) Washington State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cougars are addicted to playing close games. Spencer Petras and Jalen Royals are a force. Wazzu wins but doesn't cover.
I didn't get nearly as confident in my big bets. Maybe I'm chicken from last week. I only have three minimum bets and two maximum bets. I only have three on the four-line. I have 18 three-point bets and went heavy in the two-range with 24. Good luck out there!
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