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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season! If you're not familiar, each week we share our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
I'll do my best not to pick the same teams every week, since I know that is not always helpful. That being said, we will provide multiple teams to target each week, so that if you do not have one available, you will hopefully have another option to choose from.
Our top pick last week was the Kansas City Chiefs, who got the job done against the New York Jets. Additionally, we wrote up the Detroit Lions against the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers, who defeated the Las Vegas Raiders. We will look to go 3-0 once again this week.
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Win Probabilities For Week 10
Before jumping into the picks for Week 10, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| JAX | -595 | 85.61% | 81.89% |
| BUF | -449 | 81.79% | 78.60% |
| LAR | -450 | 81.82% | 78.41% |
| BAL | -234 | 70.06% | 67.17% |
| HOU | -231 | 69.79% | 67.01% |
| GB | -214 | 68.15% | 65.37% |
| SF | -211 | 67.85% | 65.27% |
| CIN | -193 | 65.87% | 63.31% |
| KC | -184 | 64.79% | 62.20% |
| SEA | -180 | 64.29% | 61.74% |
| DET | -163 | 61.98% | 59.19% |
| IND | -137 | 57.81% | 55.18% |
| NYG | -130 | 56.52% | 54.16% |
| NO | -119 | 54.34% | 51.71% |
| CAR | -103 | 50.74% | 48.29% |
| WAS | +109 | 47.85% | 45.84% |
| MIA | +113 | 46.95% | 44.82% |
| NE | +134 | 42.74% | 40.81% |
| LV | +151 | 39.84% | 38.26% |
| ATL | +154 | 39.37% | 37.80% |
| PIT | +162 | 38.17% | 36.69% |
| DAL | +177 | 36.10% | 34.73% |
| MIN | +177 | 36.10% | 34.63% |
| CLE | +191 | 34.36% | 32.99% |
| LAC | +192 | 34.25% | 32.83% |
| ARI | +344 | 22.52% | 21.59% |
| NYJ | +349 | 22.27% | 21.40% |
| TEN | +428 | 18.94% | 18.11% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 10.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
We have a couple of road favorites in divisional matchups with our first two selections this week, and that is simply because we are limited on great options this week. That being said, these teams should be able to win on the road against their foes, and that starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans.
The Jaguars are surging at the moment and currently sit at 6-2, having won five of their previous six games. Meanwhile, Tennessee is sitting in the basement of the AFC South at 1-7 and has lost four of its previous five contests.
The Jaguars are backed by a very strong run defense, allowing just under 90 yards per game and ranking fifth overall in the league. They also allow just 15 points per game, which ranks second-best in the league.
Meanwhile, the Titans have struggled mightily on offense, scoring just 18 points per game and averaging just under 273 total yards of offense per game, both of which rank in the bottom five league-wide. This is a spot where the Jags should absolutely roll.
don't sleep on Tuten 🤫 @FedEx
INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/lfKnS7xihJ— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
This is likely where I will use my Survivor entry for Week 10. While I do not love that the Bills are coming off a Monday night game, they do not have to travel far for this matchup. Buffalo has handled the Jets well, having won each of the previous five meetings against them.
The Bills should also be able to control the game here, as the Jets currently allow 128 rushing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the league. While the Bills have struggled on defense, the Jets average just over 20 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.
The spread for this game is currently sitting at eight points in favor of the Bills as well.
James Cook cuts outside to extend the Buffalo lead.
BALvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/DXug1E0oK8— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
We have an interconference matchup this week when the Chiefs travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. These are two teams that appear to be headed in different directions. The Chiefs currently sit at 6-2, while the Falcons are sitting at 3-6 and have lost four of their previous five games.
The Falcons are fresh off a loss in Spain against the Cincinnati Bengals, and now they have to deal with international travel ahead of this matchup against a well-rounded Kansas City Chiefs team.
Overall, Kansas City ranks 10th in the league in points scored by averaging over 25 points per game, and third in points allowed, allowing an average of just under 18 points per game. It is also strong on the ground, averaging over 137 rushing yards per game on offense.
The Falcons have struggled offensively, scoring just 21 points per game and ranking 23rd in the league. They also allow nearly 120 rushing yards per game and just under 25 points per game.
Kansas City should be able to handle the Falcons in this spot, especially when you consider the extra travel associated with playing in Spain just last week.
Also Consider Using:
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 10
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a game that I think Seattle should win, but given the uncertainty surrounding its quarterback situation and how feisty this Raiders team has been thus far in 2026, I would rather avoid the Seahawks this week.
The Raiders currently sit at 4-5, and while they have lost four of their previous five games, they currently rank eighth overall by scoring an average of over 26 points per game. They also rank fifth in terms of passing yards by averaging nearly 260 passing yards per game.
The Seahawks defense should be able to stifle this Raiders passing attack, as Seattle currently ranks second in the league by allowing an average of just 155 passing yards per game. It also allows just 18 points per game, ranking fourth overall in the league.
That being said, I am not sure what this Seattle offense will look like with the uncertainty at quarterback, and I do not exactly want to go to war against a team that can move the ball through the air the way the Raiders have this season.
Seattle should win, but I think this game may be much closer than the current spread suggests, and therefore is a fade for me this week.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Houston has been an incredibly frustrating team this season. It currently sits at 3-5, but has won three of its previous four matchups after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. Houston's defense has not been as advertised, however, as it currently ranks 27th by allowing an average of over 235 passing yards per game.
The Texans also allow 24 points per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. Cleveland should also have starting quarterback Deshaun Watson back, who will likely have some added motivation against his former team.
The Browns have been strong on defense, allowing just under 22 points per game and 201 passing yards per game, both of which rank in the top half of the league. Houston also has to travel to Cleveland for this matchup, which is another reason I do not love the spot for it.
The spread currently favors the Texans by 4.5 points, but this game could be a lot closer than that and is an avoid for me.
Also Consider Fading:
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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