Rachaad White 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook - Are You In or Out?

Dave takes a deep dive into Buccaneers RB Rachaad White's fantasy football value to determine if you should be in or out on him in 2024 fantasy drafts this summer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White is one of the more difficult players to evaluate for fantasy football drafts. While he enjoyed a breakout season last year, several blemishes in his game could affect his outlook.

On the flip side, White was one of the few workhorse backs in the league last year. He was a useful asset for fantasy owners, particularly those in PPR leagues. So why are some gamers concerned about him in 2024? As part of our “Are You In or Out” series, we will deep dive White and figure out what exactly we should be doing with him in drafts.

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The Bad - Poor Advanced Metrics

While White enjoyed a strong 2023 en route to a PPR RB4 finish, he graded poorly across numerous key metrics. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:

• 42nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT)
• 49th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE)
• 44th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade
• 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
• 40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)

Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):

• 46th in MTF/ATT
• 39th in RYOE
• 46th in PFF Rushing Grade
• 41st in Elusive Rating
• 38th in Exp Run %

Much like his 2023, White was not good in 2022, either. We now have two years worth of data suggesting White has been a below-average running back at the NFL level. While he has produced for fantasy football, the reality is that he has been flat-out bad, and just about any metric will tell you that.

The Good - Volume Can Cure All Woes

Despite his extreme inefficiency, volume was on his side in 2023, and White provided fantasy football results.

Rachaad White rushing touchdown

Bucs take the lead over the Bears
pic.twitter.com/WF1TPI94qa

— Sideline Daily (@sideline_daily) September 17, 2023

He averaged 19.8 touches per game last year. That was good for fifth among all running backs. White appears to have a firm grip as the Buccaneers' RB1. The club didn’t add any significant competition this offseason. The main addition it made was selecting rookie Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. As long as White maintains the same volume he saw in 2023, his inefficiency/poor metrics will not matter, and he will be a fine option once again.

The Bad - False Security of Presumed Volume

Much of the argument in favor of White is based solely on volume. And while volume remains king in fantasy football, we cannot assume it will always be there. We learned a valuable lesson with Alexander Mattison last year -- be wary of drafting bad running backs whose fantasy output is largely dependent on perceived volume.

If an inefficient back continues to struggle, the team may look elsewhere (whether those options are currently on the roster or somewhere else) to improve the position. This is exactly what ended up happening with Mattison. He never had strong advanced metrics, struggled in 2023 as a starter, and the club eventually turned to Cam Akers and Ty Chandler instead. Akers fell victim to this as well after he bombed last year in Week 1 and lost his starting job to Kyren Williams on the Rams.

Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has made it clear that it expects White to improve in certain areas in 2024. If the Buccaneers start losing games and White is still inefficient, how much more leeway will the team give him? The club did not add a big name to the backfield despite reports it wanted to do so. It did, however, select the aforementioned Bucky Irving in the fourth round of April’s draft and spoke highly of the rookie’s impressive burst and decisiveness during rookie minicamp and OTAs.

Bucky Irving showing off impressive vision and COD ability here to find this cutback lane. We also see him show off his acceleration to get into the end zone here! pic.twitter.com/ULp2l2XjJI

— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) March 25, 2024

We can’t really say that Irving is a better back than White right now, and it’s unclear what, if any, role Irving will have in the offense. This does make it appear likely that White will maintain his bell-cow role. But we cannot ignore the possibility that White’s role is diminished or that he’s even outright replaced. We’ve seen it happen before, and there’s nothing to say it can't happen to White.

The Good - Strong PPR Floor

The biggest strength of White’s game is his work as a receiver. He finished with 64 receptions on 70 targets in 2023. These totals ranked fourth and ninth among all backs in 2023. His receiving role helped him overcome his rushing inefficiencies. In PPR leagues, over 51% of his fantasy points came from his work as a pass-catcher. This makes White a much better selection in half and full PPR leagues compared to non-PPR formats. White will possess a relatively safe floor as long as he can maintain his role as a receiving back.

Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023

Are You In or Out?

Say what you will about him, but White was a massive value in 2023 drafts. However, 2024 is a new year. While White has shown he possesses top-five upside, it just feels like he is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode in managers’ faces. If the volume he saw last year decreases in any way, it will hurt his fantasy value.

It also remains to be seen how this offense looks now that former play-caller Dave Canales is the new head coach of the Carolina Panthers. What kind of role does new offensive coordinator Liam Coen have in mind for White? Will he maintain his three-down workhorse role? Does Coen plan to involve other backs?

Irving may or may not end up being a significant threat for touches. Although in some circles, he was seen as one of the best receiving backs in the 2024 draft. That alone raises an eyebrow considering pass-catching is the one area where White has excelled so far in his career. If Irving steals any receptions from White, that will be a massive problem for his fantasy outlook.

It’s also worth pointing out that White’s catch rate last year was an absurdly high 91.4%. Running backs typically average somewhere in the 70-75% range for this stat. He will most likely regress to the mean, and that would also ding his fantasy production a bit.

While White could very well repeat his performance from a year ago, he feels like the stereotypical RB dead-zone trap. It’s a better strategic play to pass on White, target other positions in his range of the draft, and gamble on a different back a few rounds later.

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