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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/27/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's another Thursday full of baseball action as we have 11 games on tap with plenty of afternoon action on the board. There's plenty of value to be had on a rock-solid slate and we're here again to help deliver some free MLB betting picks!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can get on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: Braves (-198)
MIA: Braxton Garrett | ATL: Kyle Wright
The Miami Marlins enter Thursday's contest with the Braves as heavy underdogs but they might have a shot in this one as they take on Braves right-hander Kyle Wright.
Wright enjoyed a breakout season in 2022, tossing a stout 3.19 ERA across 30 starts. His peripherals all checked out in the process. However, it's been a different story this time around as Wright enters this one sporting a 5.93 ERA on the season along with a 5.82 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. The 27-year-old corrected some control issues last season but has had them rear their ugly head again in the form of an 11.9% BB% in three outings this season.
On the flip side, Braxton Garrett has been excellent for the visitors. The Marlins right-hander has turned in a 2.84 ERA in four outings (three starts) along with a 2.96 FIP and 3.56 SIERA. Garrett has yielded walks to just three of the 83 batters he's faced this season, so free passes will be at a premium to start this one.
While I don't mind the Marlins on the run line in this one, I am looking to shorten the game and focus on the starting pitching matchup that appears to greatly favor the Marlins even if Garrett is dealing with a dangerous Braves lineup. Let's nab some value Thursday in Atlanta.
Pick: Marlins F5 (+152, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: Orioles (-148)
BAL: Kyle Gibson | DET: Joey Wentz
The Orioles and Tigers get together for the second time in less than a week after the O's dealt the Tigers a three-game sweep over the weekend in Baltimore despite needing a walk-off in two of the three contests.
The Orioles will send right-hander Kyle Gibson to the mound for the opener and he's more or less been Kyle Gibson to this point. He owns a 3.60 ERA on the season with a middling 20.3% K% across five starts. His supporting figures aren't quite as solid as per his 4.46 FIP and 4.42 SIERA but Gibson carved the Tigers up for 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball with 11 strikeouts on the weekend against these same Tigers.
Taking on Gibson will be Tigers left-hander Joey Wentz. The rookie has shown flashes at times but enters this one sporting a 7.56 ERA across four starts. He too pitched against the Orioles in his last start and was touched up for five earned runs on six hits -- including a homer -- and a pair of walks in just four innings of work. The 25-year-old has surrendered three homers in 16 2/3 innings, good for an elevated 1.62 HR/9 figure alongside a tiny 28.8% ground-ball rate.
Wentz isn't the only lefty the Orioles have roughed up this season. They sit seventh with a .347 wOBA on the season against left-handed pitching. Conversely, the Tigers rank 29th with a .268 wOBA off of righties.
Finally, the Tigers' light-hitting bats will have a tough time getting to an Orioles bullpen that ranks third with a 2.88 ERA and second with a 20.1% K-BB% on the season. The O's should be able to take the series opener from Comerica Park in Detroit.
Pick: Orioles moneyline (-148, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
Good luck folks!
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