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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 6 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week was jam-packed with action, kicking off with an upset in London, ending with a great divisional matchup Monday night, and featuring another 70+ point game in between. Something to note is that we have arrived at the beginning of the bye weeks. There are four teams off this week including Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, and Tennessee, which will reduce the options at all four offensive positions, forcing us to start players we might otherwise bench.
For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that as well. Hopefully, you had one of the multiple running backs that exploded this week, a few of which were rookies, and scored another victory, which is what we'll be out to accomplish again this week. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: 49ers -5.5
Implied Total: 49ers (25) vs. Falcons (19.5)
Pace: 49ers (28th) vs. Falcons (17th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 21.5% Pass (11th), -9.8% Rush (21st)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (18th), 14.7% Rush (2nd)
49ers Def. DVOA: -24.2% Pass (5th), -30.0% Rush (1st)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (20th), 5.7% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
Wilson Jr. had another game with over 100 scrimmage yards, adding a rushing touchdown. He did cede some work to Tevin Coleman including a five-yard score on the ground but Deebo Samuel received only two carries again. He is very close to being a workhorse back in an efficient rushing attack that projects to be winning again this week. Additionally, the matchup is an easier one, making him a top-20 back this week.
49ers WRs
Samuel was fortunate to find the end zone salvaging an otherwise disastrous performance with 32 total yards. He still led the team in targets so he remains the No. 1 read but with Geroge Kittle back, Brandon Aiyuk in his usual role, Jauan Jennings emerging, and the backfield involved, there are far too many pass-catchers for Jimmy Garoppolo to support them all. The matchup is great, the Falcons have given up the sixth-most points to wide receivers, propelling Samuel into the top 15 and Aiyuk inside the top 36.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons RBs
Atlanta ran the ball 31 times compared to 25 passing attempts but against the stout Tampa Bay defense, they were unable to find much success. Tyler Allgeier did receive the most carries with 13, compared to eight for Caleb Huntley, but unfortunately, Avery Williams came in to steal an eight-yard touchdown. Facing the league's toughest run defense, all of these backs are unplayable.
Kyle Pitts (WR, ATL) & Drake London (WR, ATL)
Yet again these two find themselves lumped together because of the quarterback and passing volume. Pitts is expected to make his return this week but the matchup is very difficult and it's impossible to trust him at this point. He's just ahead of the streaming options because of his upside but below all the known commodities. As anticipated, London still saw decent volume with seven targets but with only 147 passing yards to distribute, he could not produce for fantasy. Adding insult to injury, the one touchdown Marcus Mariota threw went to Olamide Zaccheaus. London is outside the top 36 again.
Other Matchups:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle had his best game thus far with five catches for 47 yards. It's not a wow game by any means, but at the tight end position, it's good enough to make him worth starting because he always has the chance to blow up. He's in the top 10 in a plus matchup.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Cordarrelle Patterson (knee)
Damien Williams (ribs)
Kyle Pitts (hamstring)
UPDATE: Kyle Pitts is active, he remains just ahead of the streamers.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3.0
Implied Total: Patriots (20.25) vs. Browns (23.25)
Pace: Patriots (29th) vs. Browns (27th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -2.9% Pass (26th), 6.3% Rush (11th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 23.7% Pass (10th), 15.4% Rush (1st)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -11.5% Pass (8th), 6.7% Rush (28th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass (16th), 20.5% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
Damien Harris left this game early, resulting in a huge week from Stevenson who finished as the RB14. The matchup was about as good as it gets and the Patriots led the entire way but with Harris out, Stevenson has elite upside. What's wild is he finished that high without a touchdown, so he could have easily cracked the top 10. Fortunately, he now heads to Cleveland to face another abysmal run defense that he should be able to carve up. The Browns are favored but it's unlikely they'll build a big enough lead for New England to abandon the run, plus he had two targets so he may be game script proof. He's a must-start in this matchup.
Browns RBs
The man, the myth, the legend, Nick Chubb has been unstoppable so far this season. He's the overall RB1 and a must-start each and every week. The matchup in terms of DVOA is pretty soft however the Patriots have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs so it could be a lesser day than we've seen so far. His counterpart Kareem Hunt had 14 touches of his own, finally finding pay dirt for the first time since Week 1. He's a top-30 back in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Jacoby Brissett (QB, CLE)
Brissett had a useable game last week but faces a tougher defense, that is far more vulnerable on the ground. Furthermore, assuming the Browns can in fact get a lead, he'll be more of an afterthought, with preference given to their league-leading rushing attack. He's off the streaming radar this week.
Other Matchups:
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
Cooper came through again with a nice game, doing so in three of five weeks now. He has the 28th-most yards per route run with 1.85, the 28th-highest PFF grade, and a 27.7% target share. He's outside of the elite players at the position but still a top-30 option with top-24 upside because of his volume, despite the tougher matchup.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku is making a strong case to be viewed in the second tier of tight ends. He's the TE9 on the season, with three straight weeks of five or more catches and 73-plus receiving yards. Even though New England has a strong pass defense, he ranks inside the top 10 again.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers returned from injury and resumed his large target share as the focal point of the passing attack. This was an especially big game with seven grabs for 111 yards and a score. It was nice to see this kind of outing with Bailey Zappe at the helm, confirming he'll be the No. 1 target regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Meyers slots in as a top-30 receiver against a middle-of-the-pack Browns defense that has given up some big plays.
Injuries:
Jonnu Smith (ankle)
Mac Jones (ankle)
Ty Montgomery (ankle)
Damien Harris (hamstring)
UPDATE: Mac Jones is out again, Bailey Zappe will get the start.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -7.5
Implied Total: Jets (18.75) vs. Packers (26.25)
Pace: Jets (1st) vs. Packers (32nd)
Jets Off. DVOA: 1.6% Pass (19th), -0.7% Rush (14th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 16.9% Pass (13th), 12.4% Rush (3rd)
Jets Def. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (29th), -4.7% Rush (19th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (11th), 12.4% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Hall has been progressively taking over the lead-back role and everything finally clicked this week for a massive game. He had nearly 200 scrimmage yards and one touchdown, which if not for being tackled inside the five-yard line twice, and Michael Carter stealing two goal-line touchdowns, would have been even more. He now has six breakaway runs (15+ yards), the fifth-most targets at the position, and a 14.2% target share. He is a rising star that has the opportunity to face a beatable Packers defense this week, locking him into the top 15.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
As per usual, Rodgers finished with around 250 yards passing yards, 222 this week, and two passing touchdowns, as the QB10, which has been what you can expect from him most weeks this season. The Jets are a favorable matchup, keeping Rodgers in that QB10-QB12 range again this week.
Packers WRs
The Jets' defense is easier to pass against than to run, so despite the identity of the Packers being their rushing attack, there's an opportunity for the receivers to produce in this matchup. Randall Cobb entered the game with 12 targets over the first four weeks and finished with 13 against the Giants, which you would expect to be an outlier performance. This correlated with a reduction in volume for Romeo Doubs, who only saw five targets, while Allen Lazard still has eight and scored again. Lazard and Doubs are still their two most talented receivers, making each a top-30 option in this matchup. You can chase the Cobb performance if you like, but that's a decision that is likely to lead to disappointment.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
New York dominated the Dolphins, relying heavily on the run game, partly because they were leading the entire second half. Wilson did enough to get the win but doesn't possess much fantasy appeal given that he doesn't throw for a lot of yards and most of their touchdowns tend to come on the ground. Green Bay is also a more challenging matchup, keeping him on your bench.
Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)
Wilson taking over for Joe Flacco has really hurt Conklin's value, resulting in a goose egg this week with zero points. There are too many receiving options and not enough targets to sustain Conklin. He's best avoided until we see something more from him.
Other Matchups:
Packers RBs
The Packers were up 10 points at halftime, on schedule to lean on their running game and feed Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon during the second half. Unfortunately, they blew their 10-point lead and only saw three possessions the entire half, one of which was a three-and-out, eventually losing to New York. The result was 20 total carries, 13 of which went to Jones compared to six for Dillon. The Jets are an average matchup against the run, and the Packers are again heavy favorites so it projects to be a great opportunity for both backs. The dip in usage for Dillon is concerning, pushing him outside the top 24 while Jones remains a top-15 back.
Jets WRs
The three-way battle between Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Garrett Wilson persists. Davis led the trio in offensive snaps with 45 and routes run with 22 while tying for the most targets with four, Moore had 41 offensive snaps, 19 routes run, and four targets, followed by Wilson with 33 snaps, 18 routes run, and four targets. The metrics say Davis is the lead receiver since the return of Wilson at quarterback but all three are splitting a small amount of volume. The point spread and pace suggest they'll need to air it out more in this matchup but it's hard to trust any of them as anything more than flex options with top-30 upside.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
The tight end position is becoming increasingly bleak, so getting four catches for 23 yards isn't a complete disaster. Green Bay should sustain offense more successfully in this matchup, creating additional touchdown upside for Tonyan, who is a potential streaming option.
Injuries:
Sammy Watkins (hamstring)
Christian Watson (quadriceps)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -2.0
Implied Total: Jaguars (22) vs. Colts (20)
Pace: Jaguars (23rd) vs. Colts (18th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 25.8% Pass (9th), -17.2% Rush (29th)
Colts Off. DVOA: -30.0% Pass (32nd), -32.5% Rush (32nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: -11.4% Pass (9th), -12.4% Rush (9th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (21st), -23.6% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
Jaguars WRs
Christian Kirk dropped to fifth on the team in targets on Sunday with only three. After three weeks of steady production, he has thoroughly disappointed the past two games. The offense should fare better against the Colts, who are easier to pass against but the volume is concerning. Zay Jones has been a consistent focal point when healthy, so he and Kirk are the best bets ahead of Marvin Jones Jr. to have a big game. Jones is a safe volume play while Kirk is riskier with a higher ceiling.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence committed two more turnovers against Houston, bringing his total to seven in the past two weeks. His yardage total was still quite high but the offense could not find the end zone. We knew the Texans were a better defense than they were initially given credit for but Lawrence is really hard to trust against the Colts who are giving up the 12th-fewest points to quarterbacks.
Jaguars RBs
James Robinson and Travis Etienne both had 10 carries, while Etienne had three more targets. Additionally, he was far more productive with his workload accumulating 114 scrimmage yards compared to 39 for Robinson. The offensive snaps also favored Etienne 40-30. There appears to be a changing of the guard here, which makes Etienne more appealing. The problem is that the offense has struggled the past two weeks and Indianapolis is hard to run against. It'll be interesting to see if the takeover continues, in the meantime, both are top-36 backs with preference given to Etienne.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Outside of Week 1, it's been a slow start to the year for Taylor, who missed last week with an injury. He has been practicing and is hopeful to play on Sunday. If active, there will be concerns about the extent of his workload, plus it's a difficult matchup. He's too good to bench completely but he'll be outside the top 12 as more of a top-20 back.
Other Matchups:
Colts WRs
Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce had eight and nine targets respectively, which is great. Pierce was more productive but Pittman Jr.'s big play ability gives him a solid ceiling. The Jaguars are another tough team to pass against, which could be a problem for Matt Ryan. Pittman remains a top-24 receiver because of his upside and Pierce is a reliable top-30 option.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Engram has eight-plus targets in two of his five games including 10 last week. He's not a lock by any means, but given the current landscape, he enters the tight end streaming conversation.
Injuries:
Jonathan Taylor (ankle)
Nyheim Hines (concussion)
UPDATE: Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have both been ruled out. Last week we saw Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay share the workload after Hines left, making each a potential flex play, with the edge given to Jackson.
UPDATE: Zay Jones is active, he's a flex option.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Vikings -3.0
Implied Total: Vikings (24.5) vs. Dolphins (21.5)
Pace: Vikings (3rd) vs. Dolphins (26th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 14.2% Pass (14th), 6.7% Rush (10th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 36.7% Pass (5th), -2.3% Rush (15th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 18.3% Pass (26th), -0.7% Rush (23rd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 31.9% Pass (32nd), -14.5% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Vikings WRs
Justin Jefferson has clearly moved on from his two-week dip in production, cementing himself as a top-five receiver. Adam Thielen's final stat line was underwhelming but he had seven targets, behind only Jefferson, and has been thrown to by Cousins five times inside the 10-yard line this season, it just hasn't worked out yet. He's trending toward being touchdown-dependent, which was what we were seeing toward the end of last season, making him a top-36 receiver given the juicy matchup.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
The matchup is even better for quarterbacks, a position the Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points against. Given the low quarterback scoring, Cousins finished as the QB6 last week and will rank inside the top 10 this week.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
Mostert has surprised many by taking on a workhorse role at the age of 31. He does have familiarity with the system and has been explosive with four breakaway runs. He also had 18 of the 23 (78%) backfield attempts and played on 69% of offensive snaps. The matchup is great and the usage has been elite but Chase Edmonds remains a threat, making him a top-24 starter.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook tore up the Chicago defense finding the end zone twice with over 100 scrimmage yards. Alexander Mattison continues to see an increased workload with nine carries and four targets against the Bears. He's entering the conversation for standalone value but remains a high-upside backup while Cook is a top-12 back.
Dolphins WRs
Neither Jaylen Waddle nor Tyreek Hill was fully healthy entering the game, resulting in a poor outing from both, especially by their standards. This marks two consecutive weeks that Waddle has been questionable leading into the contest and then underwhelmed. Thankfully, both he and Hill are off the injury report and should be good to go. If Teddy Bridgewater can return, then these two will return to being top-15 receivers in a decent matchup, otherwise, they each fall a few spots with rookie Skylar Thompson making his first start.
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
Since Week 2, Smith Jr. has averaged about six targets per game and found the end zone once. The offense and passing attack are both above average, making him a decent streaming option in a nice matchup.
Injuries:
Tua Tagovailoa (concussion)
Raheem Mostert (knee)
Teddy Bridgewater (concussion)
UPDATE: Teddy Bridgewater cleared the concussion protocol but will serve as the backup to Thompson. Raheem Mostert is active and will play.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Bengals -2.0
Implied Total: Bengals (22.5) vs. Saints (20.5)
Pace: Bengals (20th) vs. Saints (11th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: -0.1% Pass (22nd), -17.7% Rush (28th)
Saints Off. DVOA: -5.9% Pass (27th), 11.4% Rush (4th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: -12.2% Pass (7th), -11.2% Rush (11th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 5.6% Pass (13th), -12.0% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Bengals WRs
Tee Higgins was a no-show on Sunday night, after re-aggravating his ankle injury. The result was zero fantasy points, which should have meant a massive opportunity for Ja'Marr Chase. His 12 targets were exactly what we had hoped for but seven receptions for 50 yards left a lot to be desired. The matchup favors the passing attack, so Chase is locked in as a top-12 receiver with Higgins as more of a concern given the injury situation. Tyler Boyd and Mike Thomas were both involved so it would be difficult to trust either as anything other than a risky flex option if Higgins misses.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon's role is one of the most secure among all tailbacks despite his inefficiency. He had another 14 carries and three receptions but the matchup this week is another difficult one. He moves outside the top 12 as a volume-based top-20 back.
Other Matchups:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
The offensive line is showing mild improvement but Burrow has yet to open up the offense and take deep shots down the field, with just 6.9 yards per attempt on the season. He's averaging 242 passing yards and two touchdowns over the past four weeks with two finishes as the QB10 or better. The Saints have an average passing defense, making him a top-12 quarterback this week.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara was the beneficiary of there being no healthy wide receivers on Sunday. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry were unable to suit up and Chris Olave left early in the third quarter. Kamara made the most of his six receptions compiling 91 receiving yards to pair with his 103 rushing yards. This was a vintage Kamara performance that could have been bigger if "tight end" Taysom Hill didn't run in three touchdowns. The matchup is a lot more difficult this week but with all three receivers still uncertain to play, this could be another opportunity for him to excel as a receiver.
Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
It feels obligatory to include Hill here based on his four touchdowns against the Seahawks. The ceiling is evident, it's really a matter of his floor, which remains incredibly low. The value of a carry is less than the value of a target, and he only attempted one passing attempt so he is essentially a backup running back with explosiveness. The matchup is a lot more difficult but if Jameis Winston is ruled out again, Hill is a risky, high-upside option.
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN)
Hurst has found pay dirt in back-to-back weeks, and saw seven targets, capitalizing on Burrow's shorter depth of target. He's working his way into weekly starter status as a top-12 option with top-10 upside this week.
Injuries:
Jameis Winston (back, ankle)
Michael Thomas (toe)
Jarvis Landry (ankle)
Chris Olave (concussion)
Tee Higgins (ankle)
UPDATE: Tee Higgins is active but remains a player to pivot from if you have another decent option.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry are all out. Jameis Winston is active but will serve as the backup to Andy Dalton.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Spread: Ravens -5.5
Implied Total: Ravens (25.5) vs. Giants (20)
Pace: Ravens (31st) vs. Giants (14th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 42.3% Pass (2nd), 4.4% Rush (13th)
Giants Off. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (15th), 9.4% Rush (6th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 0.0% Pass (10th), 4.0% Rush (26th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 15.1% Pass (24th), -1.2% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson survived two difficult matchups against Buffalo and Cincinnati and now heads to New York for a great matchup. He still had 12 carries for 58 yards last week but only threw for 174 yards and one touchdown. You can expect a bounce-back performance as a top-five quarterback this week.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews really requires no write-up. He's the TE2 on the year and has a shot to be the TE1 each and every week, especially given the matchup against the Giants.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley is doing everything for this offense. He's their best running back, he's their best receiver, and he even looked good on his carry lined up in the wild cat formation. He has nine breakaway runs, second only to Chubb, and gets the Ravens' defense this week. He's a must-start.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
With Justice Hill ruled out, there was reason to believe he'd see more work. Unfortunately, Kenyon Drake saw four carries and Mike Davis had one, plus Devin Duvernay had three as a receiver. In addition, he only received one target. Dobbins has a higher chance to score a touchdown than many of the other running backs that'll be ranked ahead of him, but without more volume, he's very touchdown-dependent. He'll be a top-36 back with upside.
Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)
Duvernay's usage is trending upward with Rashod Bateman out. He saw seven targets, second only to Andrews, and three carries, behind Dobbins and Jackson. If Bateman misses again, he'll be a top-30 option with top-24 upside.
Injuries:
Gus Edwards (knee)
Justice Hill (hamstring)
Rashod Bateman (foot)
Wan'Dale Robinson (knee)
Kenny Golladay (knee)
Kadarius Toney (hamstring)
UPDATE: Rashod Bateman is out again as anticipated.
UPDATE: Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney are out again while Wan'Dale Robinson is active. He's an upside flex option with no other legitimate receivers to contend with.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Buccaneers -8.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (26.25) vs. Steelers (18.25)
Pace: Buccaneers (4th) vs. Steelers (5th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 26.1% Pass (8th), -19.6% Rush (29th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: -1.4% Pass (24th), -15.8% Rush (26th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -29.4% Pass (1st), -7.6% Rush (14th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 11.1% Pass (18th), -6.6% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady only scored once against the Falcons but generated 351 yards on 52 attempts. There's a reasonably high chance that he won't need to throw the ball 52 times for them to win this week, but after leading the league in pass attempts last year, he'll still air out a ton. Pittsburgh is missing too many players to slow down the Buccaneers passing attack, making Brady a top-10 quarterback.
Buccaneers WRs
Brady really distributed the ball last week, resulting in six different players finishing with six or more targets. It's not ideal for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but next to Leonard Fournette, they were still the most productive. They're both top-20 receivers in a fantastic matchup, the Steelers have given up the most points to fantasy wide receivers. There's enough volume to support a third option, but that will most likely be the player listed next.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Fournette is back to his receiving role from last season, averaging eight targets per game over the last three weeks. Rachaad White has started to see more work but so long as Fournette maintains the goal-line role and receives five-plus targets each week, he's a top-15 back in this offense. The point spread and pace of play should equate to lots of volume and carries in this matchup, locking him into the top 12 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris does not appear back to full health. His inefficiency and reduced volume are a recipe for disaster. Jaylen Warren took away five carries and five targets this week, plus he received an endorsement from the coaching staff that they will continue to use him more. Harris has a tough matchup, with a struggling offense, and competition in the backfield. He's a player to avoid if possible.
Steelers WRs
52 passing attempts and 327 passing yards were more than expected last week. The volume does create some optimism for the receiving corps as it led to eight or more targets for Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson. It likely helped that tight end Pat Freiermuth left with a concussion but it's encouraging to see a focus on this trio. The Steelers now face the highest-ranked passing defense, meaning it'll be another tough day for this offense. Johnson would be the safest bet for volume followed by Pickens for his explosiveness but those two are still outside the top 30.
Other Matchups:
None
Injuries:
Julio Jones (knee)
Russell Gage (ankle)
Pat Freiermuth (concussion)
Diontae Johnson (hip)
UPDATE: Julio Jones is out while Russell Gage will play, but is not an intriguing option this week.
UPDATE: Diontae Johnson will play while Pat Freiermuth is out, his absence will concentrate the targets once again.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -10.0
Implied Total: Panthers (16) vs. Rams (26)
Pace: Panthers (6th) vs. Rams (19th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -13.3% Pass (30th), -29.9% Rush (31st)
Rams Off. DVOA: -2.8% Pass (25th), -15.2% Rush (15th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 13.8% Pass (22nd), -7.5% Rush (16th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 9.4% Pass (17th), -20.0% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp is on pace for 218 targets, 167 receptions, 1,792 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns. It's not quite the output from last year but it's far closer than was expected. He's the best receiver in football, locking him into your lineup each and every week.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee saw 10 targets again last week, and now has nine or more targets in four of five weeks. He leads all tight ends with 48 targets, he's tied with Travis Kelce for the most receptions with 33, and is commanding a 25.3% target share. Higbee is the king of volume right now, making him a must-start.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Rams RBs
This backfield is a mess, much like the Los Angeles rushing attack. They only rushed the ball 15 times, 13 of which went to Cam Akers, while Darrell Henderson did not rush the ball at all but received five targets. The matchup is better this week and the Panthers have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position but with these two running backs sharing the workload, they're both players to fade.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford has a similar problem to Burrow, his offensive line is not protecting him, forcing him to throw quickly and take a lot of sacks. The matchup is much better this week, hard not to be after playing the Cowboys, but he's yet to prove he deserves to be inside the top 15.
Other Matchups:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore's volume is starting to climb with 19 targets in the past two games, providing hope he can return to fantasy relevance. The issue now is that Baker Mayfield is sidelined, forcing P.J. Walker to take over as the starter. Mayfield wasn't exactly lighting up, and Moore does have a history with Walker so there's still reason to believe he can succeed. The Rams are tough to run against but have given up the fourth-most points to receivers, making Moore a top-36 option.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
McCaffrey saw 12 targets this week, securing his passing role. Despite the transition at quarterback and difficult matchup, he'll remain a must-start back because of his receiving work.
Injuries:
Van Jefferson (knee)
Baker Mayfield (ankle)
UPDATE: Cam Akers has surprisingly been ruled out for personal reasons, leaving Henderson with the backfield to himself, moving him into the top-30 with top-24 upside.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (26.5) vs. Seahawks (24)
Pace: Cardinals (10th) vs. Seahawks (24th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -0.8% Pass (23rd), -3.5% Rush (16th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 45.1% Pass (1st), 5.3% Rush (12th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 19.6% Pass (27th), -9.1% Rush (12th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 31.4% Pass (31st), 0.0% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray struggled against the Eagles, much like the other quarterbacks they've faced, but outside of last week and Week 3 against the Rams, he's been solid over the first five weeks and now heads to Seattle to face one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The reason Murray isn't having elite weeks has mostly been the lacking of rushing, he's averaging only about five attempts per game for 27 yards with two touchdowns on the ground. It's enough to provide a small boost but not propel him into that elite tier. Luckily, he'll be more than capable of beating Seattle through the air, making him a must-start this week.
Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)
Brown is one of the two primary beneficiaries in this plus matchup. He's had 10-plus targets in four straight weeks, and trails only Kupp and Jefferson on the year. He's a must-start top-12 receiver in this matchup.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Ertz is the other player who benefits here. He has six receptions in three straight weeks with 45 or more yards in four consecutive weeks. He's fourth in targets among all tight ends, making him a must-start in this matchup.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
The Seahawks are fantasy gold, they have a terrible defense combined with the league's best offense. Yes, that's correct, the No. 1 offense. Add in the Cardinals' pass defense on the other side and this matchup is fantastic for all passing options. Between the matchup and his outstanding performance through the first five weeks, he's earned must-start status.
Seahawks WRs
We knew DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are an elite duo, what we didn't realize was just how well Smith can distribute the ball to them. They've combined for a 55.1% target share and are both currently in the top 20 through five weeks. They're top-15 receivers in a wonderful matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Eno Benjamin (RB, ARI)
Benjamin received a lot of praise during training camp, leading many to believe he would be the primary backup to James Conner. Darrel Williams was signed by the team and has competed with Benjamin for the backup role, however, Williams and Conner have now both been ruled out for this matchup, providing a huge opportunity for Benjamin as the lead back. The team plans to activate rookie Keaontay Ingram and may also elevate Corey Clement or Ty'Son Williams from the practice squad, but it's Benjamin who we'll be starting this week. The matchup, the over/under, the spread, and the situation all point to a potentially great game, which makes him a top-24 back with upside.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
Much like Benjamin, Walker III finds himself in a starting role as a result of an injury to their starter Rashaad Penny. DeeJay Dallas is expected to factor in on passing downs and could steal some carries but as long as he's got the goal-line role and gets the majority of the work, he'll do well in this matchup. He's also a top-24 back with upside.
Injuries:
James Conner (ribs)
Darrel Williams (knee)
Tyler Lockett (hamstring)
UPDATE: Tyler Lockett has been removed from the injury report.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Bills -2.5
Implied Total: Bills (28.25) vs. Chiefs (25.75)
Pace: Bills (7th) vs. Chiefs (21st)
Bills Off. DVOA: 40.6% Pass (3rd), -24.2% Rush (30th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 37.3% Pass (4th), -8.1% Rush (19th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -21.5% Pass (6th), -22.3% Rush (3rd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 11.5% Pass (19th), -12.6% Rush (8th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
A rematch of the epic playoff game between these two teams breeds excitement for all. Allen is the only quarterback to finish in the top 12 every week and will be a must-start here fresh off torching the Steelers.
Bills WRs
With a massive over/under and Allen at the helm, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and even Isaiah McKenzie deserve to be in your lineup this week. Diggs is a top-five receiver, with Davis a top-24 boom-bust play, and McKenzie is in the top-36.
Matchups We Hate:
Chiefs RBs
The Buffalo defense is even tougher against the run than the pass. Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally busted last week, mainly because Jerick McKinnon played excellently, earning eight carries and three targets. It left only nine carries and four targets for Edwards-Helaire, which he turned into 35 scrimmage yards. Between these two and rookie Isaih Pacheco, there are too many bodies in this backfield to trust any of them in a brutal matchup.
Bills RBs
Much like the Bills, the Chiefs are stronger against the run. Additionally, Buffalo just prefers not to run the ball, evidenced by their 18 total carries in a game they led 31-3 at halftime. Furthermore, five of those went to Allen. Devin Singletary was getting by on his receiving work, but even with McKenzie out last week, he only had two targets. He would be the one to start if you wanted to get in on this high-scoring affair, but it's a risky move.
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
It would be disrespectful to the Buffalo defense to put Mahomes in the "matchups we love" section but he's right on the cusp because of the over/under. He's also proven he can overcome difficult matchups, as evidenced against the Buccaneers a couple of weeks ago. He's a must-start this week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is in this section for the same reason as Mahomes but we've already established in previous weeks that he's matchup-proof, so you can fire him up with full confidence.
Chiefs WRs
Typically this receiving corps finds themselves in the "matchups we hate" section because there's still not a clear-cut lead receiver and so much of the volume goes to Kelce and the backfield. However, given the expected points scored, it's worth taking a shot on JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, both of whom had eight targets against the Raiders. They're top-36 receivers in this matchup.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Much like the Chiefs WRs, Knox gets a boost in value this week. He's a strong streaming option that has a lot of touchdown-upside.
Injuries:
Dawson Knox (foot/hamstring)
UPDATE: Dawson Knox is active as expected and remains a strong streaming option.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (17.75) vs. Eagles (24.25)
Pace: Cowboys (9th) vs. Eagles (15th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 7.2% Pass (17th), 6.8% Rush (9th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 30.6% Pass (7th), 10.7% Rush (5th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -26.6% Pass (4th), -5.4% Rush (18th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: -26.6% Pass (3rd), -4.4% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
The Eagles have an elite rushing attack and face a Dallas defense that is easier to run against than pass on. This bodes well for Sanders who still had 15 carries last week and three targets but lost the game of touchdown roulette twice to Jalen Hurts. He has 15 or more carries in every game this season with three targets in three of the past four weeks. He also has the ninth-most yards after contact, 13th-most missed tackles forced, and sixth-most attempts among all backs. His usage and the matchup make him a top-24 play this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Cowboys WRs
Passing against the Eagles has been a challenge, which is concerning for a quarterback like Cooper Rush. Much like Philly, Dallas will lean on their running game, reducing the ceiling for CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Last week Rush only attempted 16 passes, which is likely the recipe for success as the underdogs again this week. Lamb falls outside the top 20 and Gallup outside the top 30.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
With a tough matchup, the injury, and his lack of production this season, Schultz is on the bench this week.
Other Matchups:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts will have an uphill battle passing against this defense, fortunately, he does just as much damage on the ground, so while he drops a few spots in the rankings this week, he's still a top-10 quarterback.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert is the only tight end to finish in the top 12 every week so far, pushing to be next up after Kelce and Andrews. He's also in the top 10 despite the tough matchup.
Eagles WRs
A.J. Brown took a backseat to Goedert and DeVonta Smith last week, resulting in a poor outing for him while Smith finished with 10 receptions for 87 yards. It is difficult for all three to receive high volume when this offense focuses more on their rushing attack. The potential for lower volume and a tough matchup drops Brown outside the top 10 and Smith outside the top 20.
Cowboys RBs
The two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will be on full display Sunday night as they try to control the tempo and slow down the game. Elliott had 22 of the 30 (73%) backfield carries last week and neither had a target. Pollard has a higher elusive rating, more missed tackles forced on fewer carries, and the fourth-highest PFF grade, 30 spots ahead of Elliott. Unfortunately, without secure volume, he's going to need explosive plays to sustain success each week. Elliot is a top-24 back because of volume while Pollard is in the top 30 because of his upside.
Injuries:
Dak Prescott (thumb)
Dalton Schultz (knee)
UPDATE: Dalton Schultz is inactive for Sunday night's game. It provides a slight boost for Lamb and Gallup.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -4.5
Implied Total: Broncos (20.5) vs. Chargers (25)
Pace: Broncos (25th) vs. Chargers (8th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 0.6% Pass (21st), -14.5% Rush (23rd)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 32.7% Pass (6th), -15.1% Rush (24th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: -27.5% Pass (2nd), -7.5% Rush (15th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 2.7% Pass (12th), -1.0% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Melvin Gordon (RB, DEN)
The Chargers are bleeding points in the run game yet again this year, as the No. 1 fantasy matchup for running backs. Gordon took care of the ball in their loss to the Colts, played on 56% of snaps, had more than double the carries Mike Boone did, and tied him with three targets. He's a top-30 back with top-24 upside in a great matchup.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler has 18 or more touches in four of his five games with at least four receptions in every one of them. The matchup actually favors the run, which is the way the Chargers will attack Denver. Ekeler resumes his spot in the top 12.
Matchups We Hate:
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Wilson's struggles may now be in part due to a shoulder injury, which he received an injection for, but it is still expected to be an issue moving forward. Regardless of whether the injury, the coaching staff, or his inability to execute are to blame for his struggles, it's clear he has been bad. The matchup is middle of the pack but he's very hard to trust given all the factors outlined.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert was rendered unnecessary last week because of the performance Ekeler put together, and there is a chance we see that again here. Herbert is still missing Keenan Allen and the rib injury continues to linger so he falls outside the elite tier but is still in the top 12.
Broncos WRs
Thankfully, Wilson's demise has not prohibited Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy from maintaining fantasy relevance. They both saw eight or more targets last week to lead the receiving corps. They'll hope for a big play or a touchdown but volume will keep both in the top 30 in an okay matchup.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
So long as Allen remains sidelined, Williams is a fantastic option, bordering on a must-start. We know he is a boom-bust receiver but without Allen, he's cleared 100 receiving yards and received 10-plus targets in three of the four games. He's a top-15 play, even with a really challenging matchup. The matchup does push Joshua Palmer outside the top 36 as a risky flex play.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
Much like Williams, Everett has been enjoying the additional volume with Allen out. He finally busted last week, however, as a tight end that is to be expected, especially considering Herbert only had 22 completions. He's back in the top 12 this week, in a matchup that has been a little better for tight ends than receivers.
Injuries:
Keenan Allen (hamstring)
UPDATE: Keenan Allen is listed as doubtful for Monday's game but does not expect to play, he can be considered out.
UPDATE: Melvin Gordon III is listed as questionable for Monday's game, he practiced all week and is expected to play.
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