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We have another week in the record books for our emerging 2022 MLB season, which yields another dose of my weekly top-101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. RotoBallers can enjoy my rambling about key movers and then scroll through the top-101 in a table with tiers, ranks, earned value via Fangraphs, and even more notes! You are a go for the third 2022 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from 2022. Do note that I leave off injured players, but for now, I will include them at the bottom with a rank of where they'd appear when healthy. I highly encourage you to click the link. CLICK IT!
As is tradition, these ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and focus on healthy players. If 25% of the board is on the IL, then that doesn't help anyone. And now we head into this week's top-101 SP!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Another week into the season means slightly more stabilization, but there are still plenty of new velocities, repertoires, and batted-ball data nuisances to chew on.
***I realize that Garrett Whitlock didn't move from the RP table into the SP table, he would slot in around No. 50 at the moment. Astounding stuff, even if Boston's plan for his workload is a bit murky. You'll take a few months of incredible SP production + a replacement if an innings cap or RP shift does eventually come.
-Joe Musgrove is certainly performing like a top-12 arm, providing consistent, top-end results for those who entrusted him as their SP1 or SP2. Some are looking rusty out of the gate, but not Joe Cool. Rocking a 21/1 K/BB through 19 innings after a shortened spring is an easy way to further solidify one’s must-start status.
-Robbie Ray and Zack Wheeler are vexing us, but at least Wheeler has an excuse couched in his preseason injury and the lack of spring training. If you drafted Wheeler, then you’re not dropping him, but I think he’s on the bench until he proves he can be trusted. If I can buy low at about 75 cents on the dollar, then I’d consider it, but not much higher. Then there’s Ray, who was sitting at 92 mph early on Sunday before ramping up towards 94 at the end of his KC outing. It was a quality start, his third of the year, but he’s yet to top five strikeouts in a start. Hopefully, the arm livens up and we get more zip on April 30 against Miami, who entered Sunday with the eighth-highest K% (25%) in baseball.
-Jose Berrios had a rough first inning against the Red Sox last week, but he was able to batten down the hatches and leave Fenway with only one earned run allowed over six innings. This marks his first quality start of 2022, even if it wasn’t a beauty. Unfortunately, he draws a rematch with the Red Sox on Monday for his next outing and then gets Houston after that. It’s not ideal, though it will give us a clear picture of how much we can trust him heading into May.
-Trevor Rogers wasn’t great last week against Atlanta, but allowing zero earned runs against the defending champions is encouraging. His second start was a nightmare and we’ll hope this begins a turnaround for last year’s breakout.
-Kyle Wright is somehow getting better with each outing, with this most recent effort yielding a career-best 11 strikeouts over six shutout frames. Wright will take on the upstart Cubbies at home in his next start as he looks to quiet the naysayers. Do note his electric 36.4% K-BB rate and the .306 BABIP, so don’t go blaming batted-ball luck.
-Nestor Cortes continues to astound fantasy teams and confound professional hitters. He sat down 13 Orioles in a row before an Amed Rosario walk and a Josh Naylor home run ruined his perfect day. Now with a wicked 25/3 K/BB ratio over just 15 ⅔ IP, Cortes and his excellent cutter are chopping down opponents. He’s faced Toronto, Baltimore, and Cleveland so far, with a date against Kansas City upcoming. While KC is towards the bottom in overall strikeout rate, they’re also bottom-five with a poor 80 wRC+ so far.
-Noah Syndergaard ramped up the whiffs on Saturday, totaling a season-high six strikeouts over 5 ⅔ IP after only logging five across his first 11 ⅓ IP. This all feels warm and fuzzy thanks to a 58% groundball rate, but eventually, we’ll see some give on .200 BABIP and he’ll surrender a home run or two. Just be ready for that if he doesn’t have whiffs to get him through any traffic.
-Hunter Greene better not be hurt already, but that velocity drop from the 100 range towards 95-96 mph is frightful. Is it one cold day that he’ll shake off, or are we heading towards a bigger problem?
-Matt Brash is another youngster looking to settle into the bigs, though his early command leaves something to be desired. There’s no doubting the incredible stuff provided by his arm, but MLB hitters armed with scouting reports will continue to spit on the wicked movement until he starts painting some corners. If it’s only a matter of potential sequencing, then we must sit on the ceiling available to the few who can create that kind of movement.
-Merrill Kelly continues to lean on an effective changeup next to his cutter, curveball, and four-seamer. Hitters have only mustered one hit off of the change so far, with eight strikeouts and the .161 xBA underscoring its good work. I’m not getting overly attached here, especially with zero home runs allowed so far, but a 1.72 FIP and the .325 BABIP make me feel good about his current approach.
-Glenn Otto finally gets a chance to make good on his unfortunate 2021 MLB sample. His five innings of one-run ball with a 20% swinging-strike rate (!) was beautiful and will make everyone forget the 9.26 ERA/1.71 WHIP from last season’s 23 ⅓ IP. What if I told you that horrid near-10 ERA had a 3.17 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.82 SIERA behind it? And he had 134 strikeouts in 95 ⅔ IP between Double- and Triple-A last year, with all sorts of strikeout fury in that fastball-slider-curve combo of his.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $1.9 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Yeah, he's still the stud you want anchoring as SP1 |
| 1 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 2 | $3.6 | 42.0 | 41.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 3 starts, 3 wins; 7 IP, 10 K in his last one. Electric |
| -1 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 3 | -$1.6 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Amazing v. CLE with Trevino catching, switch flipped? |
| 0 | 1 | Brandon Woodruff | 4 | $2.8 | 40.0 | 38.5 | 1.5 ▲ | 11 scoreless IP since awful 1st game; draws PIT again next |
| 0 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 5 | $0.6 | 37.5 | 38.0 | -0.5 ▼ | ATL always tough, but 2 K in 5 IP continues mild Ks |
| 0 | 2 | Logan Webb | 6 | $3.4 | 34.5 | 35.0 | -0.5 ▼ | Bad, cold day against NYM; FIP & ERA both under 3.00 |
| 0 | 2 | Julio Urias | 7 | $1.4 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Like others, 2 strong starts following 1 bad opener |
| 0 | 2 | Freddy Peralta | 8 | $1.2 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 0.0 ▬ | 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K last week (whew); juicy PIT matchup awaits |
| 0 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 9 | $1.5 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Nice return from IL, 9 strikeouts helps shake off rust |
| 1 | 2 | Shane Bieber | 10 | $4.9 | 29.0 | 27.5 | 1.5 ▲ | 7/0 K/BB in his latest (QS & W); velo still low 90s though |
| 1 | 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 11 | $2.4 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 1.0 ▲ | In cruise control early this yr, just needs run support |
| 2 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 12 | $4.4 | 27.0 | 23.0 | 4.0 ▲ | Joe Cool w/ 3 QS, 3 sub-1.00 WHIP outings to open '22 |
| 3 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 13 | $7.7 | 25.5 | 21.0 | 4.5 ▲ | 17 IP, 2 ER, 29 K's so far. Scorching start, just stay healthy |
| -4 | 3 | Robbie Ray | 14 | -$1.1 | 24.5 | 27.5 | -3.0 ▼ | 3 QS, 1 clunker; lower K's so far. MIA next, top-10 K% team |
| -6 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 15 | -$0.8 | 24.0 | 27.5 | -3.5 ▼ | Velocity slowing returning, the arm seems to be awake |
| -3 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 16 | $3.3 | 23.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 ▼ | Speed bump at CLE, light-hitting KC slated next |
| -2 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 17 | $0.9 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 18 | $6.5 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Amazing rebound at LAD, blanking them thru 7 IP |
| 0 | 3 | Justin Verlander | 19 | $1.6 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Gave up cheapie Crawford Box HR, still a QS v. TOR |
| 0 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 20 | $3.6 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Faded later in 2nd start, but 5 strong in 3rd start (v. SD) |
| 2 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 21 | $8.3 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 4 | 3 | Shane McClanahan | 22 | $2.6 | 18.5 | 16.0 | 2.5 ▲ | 7 strikeouts, zero walks in latest W over BOS, stellar |
| -2 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 23 | -$0.2 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 3 strong outings now vs. 1 implosion. PIT next. Let's go |
| -6 | 4 | Charlie Morton | 24 | -$1.1 | 17.0 | 19.5 | -2.5 ▼ | Started slow last yr too, offseason was leg rehab |
| 0 | 4 | Frankie Montas | 25 | $2.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Tough L with 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K v. TEX, 3 straight QS |
| -4 | 4 | Jose Berrios | 26 | -$1.6 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 4 | Aaron Nola | 27 | -$1.2 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Finally, an ace start on Sunday night; keep that going |
| -1 | 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 28 | -$0.9 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Chris Bassitt | 29 | $2.9 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Shohei Ohtani | 30 | $5.4 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | MVP-caliber 6 IP, 12 K, took perfecto into the sixth. Jeez |
| 0 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 31 | $4.1 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 32 | $5.6 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Clearly firing at 100% with a beautiful 35% CSW so far |
| 0 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 33 | $4.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Patience paying off; scoreless last two starts |
| 0 | 5 | Logan Gilbert | 34 | $4.1 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Lacks SP1 upside but faith in secondaries yields profit |
| -7 | 6 | Trevor Rogers | 35 | $1.7 | 10.5 | 12.5 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 1 | 6 | Alex Cobb | 36 | $3.7 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Expected to a brief IL stint so I'll leave him on |
| -2 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 37 | $1.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 38 | $3.2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 6 | Luis Garcia | 39 | $1.4 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 5 | 6 | Tylor Megill | 40 | $4.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 41 | $2.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 19 | 6 | Kyle Wright | 42 | $7.6 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Excelsior, nearly 40% CSW in latest gem: 6 IP, 11 K |
| 1 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 43 | $4.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Fantastic rebound against strong ATL lineup |
| 7 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 44 | $5.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Nestor is Bestor w/ pace, arm angles, sweet cutter |
| 2 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 45 | $3.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Worked 7 2/3 IP v. SF, now has 20/2 K/BB in 18 1/3 IP |
| 2 | 7 | Joe Ryan | 46 | $1.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | B2B 6 IP QS, looks for third straight W v. DET next week |
| -11 | 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 47 | $0.6 | 6.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 ▼ | I want to believe, but peripherals all ~4.50 so far |
| -10 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 48 | $4.3 | 6.5 | 8.5 | -2.0 ▼ | 3 straight clunkers now and a Coors start looms |
| -7 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 49 | $2.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Hit 85 pitches in last start, needs to avoid deep counts |
| -11 | 7 | Ian Anderson | 50 | $0.1 | 5.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 7 | Tanner Houck | 51 | $2.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 7 | Alex Wood | 52 | $0.9 | 5.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 4 | 7 | Luis Severino | 53 | $1.9 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 8 | Noah Syndergaard | 54 | $2.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -9 | 8 | Adam Wainwright | 55 | $2.4 | 5.0 | 6.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| -4 | 8 | Matt Brash | 56 | -$0.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | Can he locate the wicked movement? Hitters learning |
| -2.0 | 8 | Tarik Skubal | 57 | $3.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | Zero ER in his last two after poor 1st game, it's a theme |
| -5 | 8 | Jose Urquidy | 58 | -$0.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -3 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 59 | $1.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 9 | Hunter Greene | 60 | -$0.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Fastball fell from 100s to 95-96, effectiveness dipped too |
| -2 | 9 | Marcus Stroman | 61 | -$0.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 8 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 62 | $1.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 9 | 9 | Nick Lodolo | 63 | -$1.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | No walks in strong Sunday outing v. STL, big upside |
| -2 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 64 | $0.8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 9 | 9 | Merrill Kelly | 65 | $4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | More changes and cutters continues to work |
| 3 | 10 | Tony Gonsolin | 66 | $1.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -7 | 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 67 | -$0.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | 10 BB in 12 IP, HOU flamed him and get him again next |
| -4 | 9 | Kyle Hendricks | 68 | $1.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -4 | 9 | German Marquez | 69 | -$0.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -3 | 10 | Reid Detmers | 70 | $0.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Looked better v. BAL, still mid-3's xFIP & SIERA early |
| 0 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 71 | $1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 72 | $4.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Steven Matz | 73 | $3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | 2 straight wins, revenge game v. NYM upcoming |
| 3 | 10 | Josiah Gray | 74 | $1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Hurts himself w/ deep counts, plus K's are a weapon |
| 4 | 10 | Bailey Ober | 75 | $1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 9 | 10 | Eric Lauer | 76 | $0.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Wow, dominant fastball for career-best 13 Ks on Sunday |
| N/A | 10 | Cristian Javier | 77 | $1.7 | 2.5 | N/A | N/A | HOU going to 6-man rotation opens this exciting door |
| -12 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 78 | $0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -1 | 11 | Zach Eflin | 79 | $3.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 11 | Drew Rasmussen | 80 | $0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 11 | Marco Gonzales | 81 | -$1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 11 | Mitch Keller | 82 | $1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Settled in with 7/0 K/BB in latest start at MIL |
| 3 | 11 | Michael Lorenzen | 83 | -$0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 11 | Zach Plesac | 84 | $1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -5 | 11 | Nick Martinez | 85 | -$3.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ | 13/10 K/BB, 5 HR in 14 2/3 IP is no bueno |
| N/A | 11 | Glenn Otto | 86 | $2.0 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Near 35% CSW in 2022 debut, good add but HOU next |
| 1 | 11 | Aaron Ashby | 87 | $0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 9 | 11 | Paul Blackburn | 88 | $4.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Only 5 IP in each start, but 35.4% CSW & 1.37 FIP! |
| 3 | 12 | Austin Gomber | 89 | -$0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 12 | Elieser Hernandez | 90 | -$1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Dylan Bundy | 91 | $3.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | 3 Wins against good teams, 12/1 K/BB nice, .222 BABIP |
| 2 | 12 | Michael Pineda | 92 | $1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 12 | Chris Flexen | 93 | $1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -7 | 12 | Zack Greinke | 94 | $1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Can you really afford the low K tally? |
| 6 | 12 | Miles Mikolas | 95 | $3.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 12 | Nick Pivetta | 96 | -$2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 12 | Justin Steele | 97 | $0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Tyler Anderson | 98 | $2.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| 0 | 12 | Brad Keller | 99 | $2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -9 | 12 | Corey Kluber | 100 | $0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Michael Wacha | 101 | $0.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A |
**REMEMBER THE SEASON HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN AND PITCHERS GOT A RAW DEAL WITH THE ABRUPT LOCKOUT END AND SHORTENED SPRING.
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