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Writing about Christin Stewart being a sleeper gives me a feeling of déjà vu, largely because I did the same thing 12 months ago. Stewart didn’t really do much in 2019 to warrant any fantasy relevance, yet here I am letting you know that the Tigers outfielder is once again a sleeper for 2020.
Heading into drafts last year, Stewart had an ADP ~375 on NFBC. This year, Stewart’s ADP is ~619 and he’s outside the top 120 outfielders being drafted. All that basically translates to Stewart costing nothing more than a last-round pick or a $1 bid in any depth of draft.
So why is he going to perform well enough in 2020 to be considered a sleeper then? Let's dig in.
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Christin Stewart 2020 Outlook
First of all, we’ll take a look back at his 2019 season in which he gave us glimmers of hope in his batted ball profile. The below table shows some of Stewart's Statcast numbers and where he ranks among 406 total hitters who had a minimum of 100 batted ball events (BBE) in 2019.
| Stat | Number | Rank | Notable players tied with |
| Brls / PA % | 4.8% | 208th (tied) | Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez |
| Sweet spot % | 37.1% | 93rd (tied) | Anthony Rizzo, J.D. Davis |
| Max exit velocity | 112.0 MPH | 126th (tied) | Freddie Freeman, James McCann |
| Average HR distance | 402 ft | 143rd (tied) | Michael Conforto, Carlos Correa, Mike Moustakas, J.D. Martinez |
For those not in the know, Brls / PA % is the percentage of plate appearances which results in the hitter barrelling the ball (a barrel is any ball struck with an exit velocity of 98 MPH or greater and a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees). Sweet spot % is the percentage of batted ball events a hitter has resulting in a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.
While none of these numbers jump off the page or declare that Stewart will suddenly become an elite power hitter, there is enough to suggest he can harness more power than what he displayed last year when he managed just 10 HR in 104 games. Stewart’s minor-league career has seen him hit 98 HR in 488 games which hints that there is some more power to come (Stewart turned 26 years old in December). The company he keeps with some of those numbers certainly points towards an increase in power as he hits his prime years. He's more than capable of hitting balls hard and far:
The second reason to believe Stewart could have a breakout season in 2020 is the excellent on-base skills he has displayed throughout his minor league career. Stewart amassed 257 walks in the minors with a walk rate of 12.5 BB% and a .366 OBP. In Stewart’s 17-game major league debut in 2018, he showcased these skills with a 13.9 BB% and .375 OBP. So last year’s 8.2 BB% and .305 OBP will likely be the lowest he puts up as a major league hitter.
Stewart’s value will also be reliant on where he hits in the Tigers’ lineup. His profile is someone who should be able to hit second, something he did in 29 of his 99 starts last year. Stewart’s other 70 starts saw him hit everywhere else except leadoff and eighth so he will need to hit (and walk) well enough to make the No. 2 spot his own. With the additions of Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to their lineup, the Tigers have improved what was the worst offense in baseball last year. And with what amounts to no cost in drafts, if he can bring all these facets to his game, Stewart could be a difference-maker in your leagues.
