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On Feb. 17, Eric Hosmer inked an eight-year, $144 million deal, the largest in Padres franchise history. Many are confused by the signing not only because eight years is an awfully big contract, but also because the Padres already have an All-Star first baseman on their roster in Wil Myers.
Irrespective of this fact, the one-time Silver Slugger will be suiting up for the Friars for at least the next five seasons. Hosmer has an opt-out after the fifth year of his contract, and that does not bode especially well for his fantasy value going forward.
Let's examine the fantasy impact this long-awaited signing has on Hosmer and his new teammates in San Diego.
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Hosmer Finally Finds a Home
For starters, PETCO Park is not exactly a hitter's paradise. According to ESPN's park factors, PETCO has been among the bottom two stadiums in the league for hitters in three of the past five seasons. Of the two seasons in which it was not ranked 29th or 30th, PETCO was 20th and 12th, so still not particularly favorable. The fact that Hosmer is going to be spending at least the next five years there is not a positive for his fantasy value.
It also doesn't help that Hosmer will be moving to a far more competitive division. While the Indians had a very good pitching staff, there was not a whole lot of pitching talent in the AL Central this past season, during Hosmer's best season yet. Comparatively, the pitchers Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks are all far more threatening. In that same vein, though, the ability to play a handful of games each season in Coors Field and Chase Field bodes well for Hosmer.
With all of that being said, it's unlikely that Hosmer will be able to capitalize on the thin air of the aforementioned two ballparks based on his batted ball profile. Over the course of Hosmer's career, he has posted a ground ball rate of 53.4%. In each of the past four seasons, his GB% has been over 50%, and he has the second-highest ground ball rate in the majors since the start of 2016 at 57.2% The only player he trails in that time frame is Dee Gordon, who can get away with a high grounder rate due to his elite speed. Hosmer, on the other hand, has to rely on a high BABIP for ground ball hits, which partially explains his career-high .318 batting average last season. His career BABIP sits at .338, but last season, it was an inflated .376. It's unlikely this trend continues in 2018 and beyond during Hosmer's time with the Padres.
Additionally, Hosmer is 28. Age is not going to be a factor in the short term, but looking toward the latter few years of the contract, Hosmer's age is going to come back to hurt him. A look back at Hosmer's batted ball profile tells us that Hosmer's batting average is likely going to decrease with age. He'll get slower, which means his BABIP is going to fall due to all the ground balls he hits. Unless Hosmer makes some profound changes to his hitting approach, it's pretty unlikely that he returns value anywhere near what he provided for fantasy owners last year.
In terms of impact on current Padres, this is likely to be a general positive for the incumbents. Guys who hit ahead of Hosmer, like Manuel Margot and Wil Myers, should see an uptick in runs but will likely also lose some value in steals due to the Padres not wanting to make outs on the basepaths in front of Hosmer. Those hitting behind Hosmer, like Chase Headley and Austin Hedges, are likely to see a bump in RBI opportunities and, in turn, RBI. Headley is still virtually undraftable in all but the deepest of leagues, but Hedges should see a bump in value with the Hosmer signing, especially in two-catcher leagues.
Hosmer's power is legitimate, but a batting average above .275 seems unlikely, and his HR/FB in the future seems likely to regress toward the mean from the career-high he posted last year. All-in-all, the move to PETCO seems like a relatively neutral one; the bigger cause for concern is with Hosmer's batted ball profile, which is unlikely to age well.
