Tiered Running Back Rankings: Top 12 in Fantasy Football

The first segment of the 2014 fantasy football running bank rankings and analysis are finally here! Bear in mind these are likely to change as we get closer to the season's kickoff. Running back is the most volatile position in the game, where guys can go from stars to scrubs in a single season. For example, Trent Richardson and Ray Rice were first round picks last season. They're still somewhat relevant, but you won't find them in the top 25 of the RB rankings for 2014.

These rankings are tiered, and within each tier you can interchange players to your liking. Separate tiers signify where I think there are clear distinctions in value. For example, Tier 1 recognizes the elite at the position, feature backs and proven studs. Tier 2 has guys I would consider great, but with potential concerns, and so it goes down the list. I'd love to read your comments and disagreements below!

For more tiered rankings and analysis, be sure to check out our Wide Receiver Rankings (Top 20, Top 40, Top 60) and our Quarterback Rankings (Top 10, Top 21, Top 32, Dynasty Top 15), as well as RotoBaller's overall Standard League and PPR Rankings.

 

Tier 1 Running Backs

1. Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs - 5'11" 199 lbs

2013: 259 Att - 1,287 Yards - 12 TD / 70 Rec - 693 Yards - 7 TD

Coaching Change: None

Jamaal Charles had a pretty good year purely as a runner. Throw in the receiving aspect and it was a phenomenal season. It's hard to imagine Charles repeating that performance again, but he is the safest pick in the game. He did miss one game in 2013, but in the games he played he had just one game under 90 total yards (in the one outlier he managed a respectable 72 yards). Charles remains at the top because he is one of the few backs who will remain the hands-down top option in his team's offense. Alex Smith loved dumping the ball off to Charles, who led all RBs in targets and receiving yards. Expect plenty more of the same in 2014.

 

2. LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles - 5'11" 208 lbs

2013: 314 Att - 1,607 Yards - 9 TD / 52 Rec - 539 Yards - 2 TD

Coaching Change: None

A fantastic runner, McCoy led all backs in attempts and rush yards last year. It's safe to say he had a seamless transition into the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly, and he is every bit as talented as Charles. The only reason McCoy slides in at number two is that there is simply no way he can get the number of receptions that Charles can. There are too many talented options in this Eagles offense. The only concern - a minor one considering it's hypothetical - is that the leading rusher in both '11 (MJD) and '12 (Foster) failed to play more than eight games the following year. If you go back farther it's not prevalent, but with RBs running the ball less and less, it's worth noting.

 

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears - 6'2" 218 lbs

2013: 289 Att - 1,339 Yards - 9 TD / 74 Rec - 594 Yards - 3 TD

Coaching Change: None

Matt Forte enjoyed a nice boost in Marc Trestman's offense--his receiving game went from very good to exceptional. The Bears almost never used a third wide receiver, as the wide receivers outside of Marshall and Jeffery combined for 264 yards. That means Forte is guaranteed a fair share of receptions in addition to being a true feature back. Another somewhat surprising fact is that Forte has never had fewer than 1,400 total yards in a season, including when he played just 12 games in 2011. In Trestman's offense, he is almost a lock for another 1,400+, especially after surpassing 1,900 last season. Forte's main drawback in the past has been a lack of use at the goal line. However, last year a majority of Forte's rush TD came from within five yards. Michael Bush did nab two one-yard touchdowns, but he is no longer a concern. The Bears brought in Ka'Deem Carey, but Forte should still be able to take a healthy number of goal line snaps.

 

4. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings - 6'1" 217 lbs

2013: 279 Att - 1,266 Yards - 10 TD / 29 Rec - 171 Yards - 1 TD

Coaching Change: HC - Mike Zimmer, OC - Norv Turner

The best pure runner in the game, Peterson is likely a little past his prime. He is one of just three active backs with over 2,000 rushing attempts, and he's the only one of the three that is still considered elite. I expect Peterson has at least one more excellent year in him, but he did look a bit worn down at the end of the year, missing two of the final four games. He will be expected to carry the team again with a rookie QB likely starting, although that's what he's been doing for most of his career. There is a new coaching regime, but with the best runner in the game there is no worry about his usage. Even if he does show some aging this year, he'll find the endzone plenty and get his yardage in.

 

Tier 2 Running Backs

5. Eddie Lacy - Green Bay Packers - 5'11" 230 lbs

2013: 284 Att - 1,178 Yards - 11 TD / 35 Rec - 257 Yards - 0 TD

Coaching Change: None

I was not high on Lacy going into his rookie season. Needless to say, I was dead wrong on that one. Lacy is a big, tough back that had little trouble finding his way into the end zone last season. I don't think he'll ever be a big factor in the passing game, and he probably won't break a ton of huge runs, but he's proven himself effective as a workhorse back. Those short TD runs are his bread and butter. Expect him among the league leaders in rush attempts and touchdowns.

 

6. DeMarco Murray - Dallas Cowboys - 6'0" 219 lbs

2013: 217 Att - 1,121 Yards - 9 TD / 53 Rec - 350 Yards - 1 TD

Coaching Change: Passing game coordinator - Scott Linehan, Running Game Coordinator - Bill Callahan

Of all the feature backs in the league (which I'll qualify as 200+ carries for this purpose), DeMarco Murray led the league with 5.2 YPC. He also took his receiving game to the next level in 2013. Scott Linehan is now in charge of the passing game, and he managed to find 107 receptions between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. I have to believe that is a big positive for Murray, who should remain a focal point in the Dallas offense. The one drawback for Murray is his inability to stay on the field. The 14 games he played last season were the most he's had in three professional seasons. However, even if he does miss a game or two he should provide great value early in the draft.

 

7. Alfred Morris - Washington Redskins - 5'10" 218 lbs

2013: 276 Att - 1,275 Yards - 7 TD / 9 Rec - 78 Yards - 0 TD

Coaching Change: HC - Jay Gruden, OC - Sean McVay

Morris is the first back on the list that has almost no value in the passing game. In the days of change-of-pace backs, this is a huge shot to his fantasy value. However, he has proven himself to be an extremely reliable workhorse back. There are widespread concerns that Morris will lose carries as a result of the new coaching staff, but I don't agree. Based on his time with the Bengals, Gruden is very willing to commit to a guy, which I would infer means 270+ carries for Morris. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson received more than 270 carries combined, and they are far less talented than Morris. I remain fully confident that he can maintain 270+ carries with a 4.5 YPC, which will keep him very relevant in fantasy.

 

8. Marshawn Lynch - Seattle Seahawks - 5'11" 215 lbs

2013: 301 Att - 1,257 Yards - 12 TD / 36 Rec - 316 Yards - 2 TD

Coaching Change: None

Lynch has been one of, if not the best volume back in recent memory. He is the only back to surpass 280 carries each of the last two years, and he has done it the last three years. He's also been exceptionally consistent touchdown-wise as well, finding pay dirt 12-14 times in each of those three seasons. However, with his usage, age and talent, his upside is the lowest of anyone in the top 10 (and probably top 15). An unrelated but equally troubling concern is Lynch's potential loss of carries to fantasy expert darling Christine Michael. That said, I believe that any reports of Lynch's demise are over-exaggerated. Even if Michael steals some carries, Lynch should still receive upwards of 270. Keep in mind that Robert Turbin had 77 carries last year, and that is where Michael is likely to siphon carries from, not Lynch. Goal-line carries are still going to the feature back as well, so Lynch will remain a top 10 fantasy running back.

 

9. Arian Foster - Houston Texans - 6'1" 227 lbs

2013: 121 Att - 545 Yards - 1 TD / 22 Rec - 183 Yards - 1 TD

Coaching Change: HC/OC Bill O'Brien

Foster is the first guy on this list that didn't have a great season last year. Even if you factor in that he missed half the season, two touchdowns in eight games is pretty disappointing. But the Texans reaffirmed their confidence in Foster by letting Ben Tate walk and not drafting a running back until the 6th round. With the oft-injured Andre Brown as the #2, there is no doubt that Foster remains a feature back. He also remains a qualified receiver as well, and he's one of the best in YAC. With many fantasy players wary of Foster's health, he could end up being a great value outside of the top five. I still believe him to be a feature back in the prime of his career.

 

10. Doug Martin - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5'9" 215 lbs

2013: 127 Att - 456 Yards - 1 TD / 12 Rec - 66 Yards - 0 TD

Coaching Change: HC - Lovie Smith, OC - Jeff Tedford

Following a phenomenal rookie season, expectations were very high for Martin's sophomore campaign. It started out poorly as he managed to exceed 100 rushing yards just once in the first five games, despite plenty of carries. The salt in the wound was a shoulder injury that put him on the IR after only six games. A casual player might see his 3.6 YPC and immediately write him off, but in his small sample he faced the two toughest run defenses in the league last year (the Jets and Cardinals). Take out those two games, and he averaged a more than respectable 4.55 YPC, which is in line with his rookie season. That gives me confidence that he is still very much the same player. New OC Jeff Tedford is great with RBs--while coaching at Cal he coached Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. That's a pretty impressive stable given that Cal is not an elite football school.

 

11. Le'Veon Bell - Pittsburgh Steelers - 6'1" 244 lbs

2013: 244 Att - 860 Yards - 8 TD / 45 Rec - 399 Yards - 0 TD

Coaching Change: None

Those who drafted Bell with the injury discount last season ended up getting a steal. While his YPC was less than desirable, he saw plenty of touches and was a pleasant surprise as a pass catcher. I'm willing to attribute some of the poor YPC to the offense struggling as a whole at times. The Steelers often found themselves down early in the game, and as a result they were throwing much more than normal. The Steelers did add LeGarrette Blount and Dri Archer, but I don't think that affects Bell's value too much. I think Blount may even aid Bell's value by helping to wear down the defense on some of the tougher runs.

 

12. Montee Ball - Denver Broncos - 5'10" 215 lbs

2013: 120 Att - 559 Yards - 4 TD / 20 Rec - 145 Yards - 0 TD

Coaching Change: None

If the far less-talented Knowshon Moreno was elite in one of the most prolific offenses of all-time, the sky is truly the limit for Montee Ball. The Broncos tried to get Ball more involved last season, but an early case of fumblitis kept him off the field for the most part. Knowshon Moreno then established himself as the #1 back, and the door closed on Ball. He was able to reestablish himself down the stretch with 13+ touches and 80+ total yards in three of the final five regular-season games. I really like Ball to break out in 2014, and I would not be surprised at all if he ends up as a top-five or top-six running back this year. However, I do worry about what may happen if he fumbles a couple times early in the season. I am certain the Broncos are not as strict about fumbles as the Patriots or Giants, but a few mistakes and who knows. However if he is still on the board at this point, he is a no-brainer pick with huge upside.

 

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.