RADIO
Matt Terelle offers up optimal high, mid, and low-priced DFS stacks for Week 13 of the NFL season. These GPP tournament stacks are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
Hey there RotoBallers! Here we are, on the eve of the season-long league fantasy playoffs with the all-important Week 13 slate set to make and break the playoff aspirations of many a fantasy gamer. With the byes and Thanksgiving games out of the way, we finally have all 32 NFL teams in action. One of the great things about playing in daily fantasy contests is even if your season-long teams aren't playoff-bound, there is still fantasy football to be enjoyed all the way through the conclusion of the real-life NFL playoffs. The Week 13 main slate boasts three projected high-scoring games with over/unders of 50 points or more. That would include the Panthers-Buccaneers game (56.5 points), Rams-Lions (54.5), and Chiefs-Raiders (55.5). The Vikings-Patriots game should also be high-scoring, checking in with a 48.5-point over/under.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 13 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 13 DFS Stacks
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce @ Oakland
The Chiefs (and Rams) being on bye in Week 12 made it feel as though something was missing across the fantasy landscape as two of the most explosive offenses in the league were idle. Fortunately, the high-flying Kansas City attack is back in action as they look to put a hurting on their division rivals. Oakland's defense has been brutalized by opposing quarterbacks, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Patrick Mahomes is averaging a hearty 4.3 FanDuel points and 5.0 DraftKings points per game more than the second-place quarterback on either site. Mahomes remains expensive, but he's always in play in DFS tournaments.
The Oakland defense has been an interesting unit to analyze. As mentioned above, they are almost last in the league in pass defense DVOA, but they have been excellent at limiting the No. 1 and 2 wide receivers of their opponents this season. It has been the other team's WR3 and tight ends who have done most of the damage. To me, that makes Travis Kelce the preferred play over Tyreek Hill on this slate. Kelce has been the top-scoring tight end in fantasy this season and will run routes against a Raiders defense that ranks last in the league in pass defense DVOA against the tight end position.
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and WR Brandin Cooks @ Detroit
The Rams, fresh off of a Week 12 bye, head to Ford Field to take on the Lions in Week 13. Despite hiring defensive-minded head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions have struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Goff is at the helm of one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and there's no reason to believe he will be slowed down in this plus matchup.
While the nature of the Rams offense has made it difficult to pinpoint who will be the highest-scoring pass-catcher in some weeks, this week signs point toward using Brandin Cooks as the stacking partner for Goff. Cooks should avoid the coverage Darius Slay on most of his routes, leaving Josh Reynolds to tangle with the shutdown cornerback. Instead, Cooks will mostly see coverage from Mike Ford, who has a 58.5 grade at Pro Football Focus. The move to Los Angeles has been beneficial for Cooks as the Rams have utilized him as the true WR1 that he is. The Cooks-Goff stack has the potential to connect for multiple touchdowns this week.
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins and WR Adam Thielen @ New England
Cousins is coming off one of his better games in a while and will be a road underdog going up against a high-scoring New England offense. That assures that the Vikings offense will be passing often to keep up with the Patriots on the scoreboard. New England's defense has been exploitable for fantasy quarterbacks this season, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game and ranking 19th in pass defense DVOA.
While many will want to use red-hot Stefon Diggs in DFS contests this weekend, Adam Thielen sets up as the better play and the preferred stacking partner for Kirk Cousins. Diggs will draw the toughest matchup of the Viking pass-catchers as he will see shadow coverage from lockdown corner Stephon Gilmore. Thielen should see an easier matchup against either Jason McCourty or J.C. Jackson in the slot. Thielen has been one of the best fantasy wide receivers this season and sets up for another huge game in Week 13.
Moderately-Priced Week 13 DFS Stacks
Carolina QB Cam Newton and WR D.J. Moore @ Tampa Bay
Cam Newton draws the top quarterback matchup of the week as the Panthers travel to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have been getting served by opposing passing games, ranking dead last in the league in DVOA and allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Newton, who also doubles as Carolina's de facto goal-line running back, could very easily roll up four touchdowns in this game.
Rookie wideout D.J. Moore has overtaken the No. 1 wideout spot in Carolina. The former Maryland Terrapin has drawn 17 targets over the past two weeks, turning those into 15 catches for 248 yards and a touchdown. Even with Devin Funchess looking likely to return this weekend, there has been a changing of the guard in the Carolina receiver pecking order. Moore should still come close to double-digit targets in what will be one of the best matchups he sees all season.
Bargain-Priced Week 13 DFS Stacks
Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota and WR Corey Davis vs. New York Jets
Mariota's team didn't win on Monday night, but he played well, completing 22-of-23 passes for 303 yards and two scores while rushing for 28 yards. Outside of his injury-shortened Week 11 game against the Colts, Mariota has been effective since his team's Week 8 bye, accounting for multiple touchdowns in every game but one (the aforementioned Colts game). The Jets represent an average matchup for quarterbacks, ranking 15th in pass defense DVOA.
Corey Davis' production has risen along with Mariota's as the second-year wideout has three touchdowns in his past four games and has topped 96 receiving yards twice over that span. Davis will enjoy squaring off against a Jets secondary that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. He will draw primary coverage from Morris Claiborne, who has a 66.9 grade at PFF.
Denver QB Case Keenum and WR Emmanuel Sanders @ Cincinnati
While Tampa Bay and Atlanta generally get most of the notoriety for having terrible pass defenses, don't sleep on the Bengals, who are fresh off of being handed a four-touchdown whooping at the hands of Baker Mayfield. Keenum got off to a shaky start with the Broncos this season, throwing 10 interceptions in his first eight games. He has since tightened up, playing three straight interception-free games. He should have little trouble moving the ball against a Bengal defense that is 26th in pass defense DVOA and is coughing up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Sanders has been excellent this season, averaging just over six catches and 77.2 yards per game with five total touchdowns. The veteran receiver will look to stay hot against Cincinnati slot corner Darqueze Dennard in Week 13. Dennard has struggled in coverage this season, grading out at 56.9 over at Pro Football Focus. With several other high-profile stacks drawing equally excellent matchups this weekend, the Keenum-Sanders stack is likely to go overlooked and could pay off in a big way.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and WR Chris Godwin and TE Cameron Brate vs. Carolina
While many fantasy gamers will likely pair Winston with No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans, there is some merit to pivoting off of Evans to some of the secondary options in the Tampa Bay passing attack. The Panthers have struggled in pass defense this season, but they have been effective against the opponent's No. 1 receiver, ranking third in DVOA in that department. On the other hand, Carolina's pass defense DVOA is 27th against No. 2 wide receivers and 30th against tight ends. A three-man stack of Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, and Cameron Brate is a good way to differentiate lineups in a game that will be popular among DFS gamers this weekend.
