Updated Starting Pitcher Rankings (May) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball

We are a quarter of the way through the regular season for Major League Baseball, so our crack staff at RotoBaller has updated our rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings. We kick things off with a look at the starting pitcher ranks.

Aces are more scarce than ever, with the injury bug taking a chunk out of elite starters like Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, and even Clayton Kershaw early in the season. If you plan to remain competitive in your league, it's crucial to survey the current landscape to see how things have changed since your draft took place.

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2018 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitcher (May)

Tier 1

Max Scherzer stands alone as the top starting pitcher in our rankings, with Clayton Kershaw dipping to the 19th overall spot. It's obviously too early to declare the Cy Young race over, but right now it seems ridiculous to put your money anywhere other than on a repeat from Mad Max. He owns a sub-2.00 ERA and is striking out a career-high 14.25 batters per nine innings. If you're lucky enough to own him, you'd be crazy to trade him at any point this season.

Chris Sale and Corey Kluber are again neck-and-neck in the race for best arm in the American League. Sale isn't quite dominating to the same level as last season, as his 5.65 K/BB is closer to his career mark than last year's 7.16 K/BB, but he's 5-1 and third in the majors with 96 strikeouts. Kluber is all the way down at 10th with 71 K and owns a 2.36 ERA, but he typically does his best work in the second half. A pair of Astros are outperforming that duo at the moment, but we'll discuss them down in Tier 2 for now.

Tier 2

Noah Syndergaard is producing numbers nearly identical to his last full season in 2016, so expect more of the same from the Norse god. His ability to limit walks (1.99 BB/9) and home runs (0.61 HR/9) means that you never have to worry about rolling him out on any given day. As long as he's healthy, he is a solid top-10 SP in all formats.

If you wanted to argue that Luis Severino is the best starting pitcher in the American League right now not named Corey or Chris, it would be hard to counter that. The only thing keeping him ranked below the aforementioned names is lack of a lengthy track record and a hitter-friendly home ballpark that is fifth-highest in Park Factor for runs scored. Still, Severino has only allowed more than three earned runs on one occasion this year, while allowing one or no runs on five occasions. At the ripe age of 24, he has arrived as an elite arm.

Jacob deGrom doesn't get as much attention as his teammate with the glamorous nickname, but he might be better. So far, deGrom has a 1.75 ERA supported by a 2.34 xFIP. His strikeout rate continues to climb and he actually does benefit from his home stadium. He could be the sneakiest ace among our top-10 list.

Justin Verlander is pitching like... Justin Verlander (of old). He rightfully belongs in the second tier and would be there if not for the more bearish ranks of one @Roto_Dubs. It's hard to imagine Verlander will keep pitching to this level the entire season, but it's not as if he doesn't have the pedigree or team situation to make it possible. I was admittedly down on Verlander before the year began, so it is with great humility that I have him now ranked among the top 25 overall players for 2018.

Gerrit Cole is another Astros starter that has simply dominated since the season began. He has somehow doubled his strikeout rate since 2016, up to an astronomical (see what I did there?) 40.2% K%. His velocity remains the same, but he has changed his pitch selection slightly to include more curveballs, while reducing his changeup usage by half (4.9%). The more he sees some familiar faces around AL lineups, it may get a little tougher, but Cole has shown us Cy Young form before and is flexing it again in his new digs.

Aaron Nola and James Paxton were supposed to be the injury-prone players in this range, but they rank #10 and #22 respectively in terms of fantasy value in standard 5x5 leagues for SP as of right now. While Paxton holds a significant edge in strikeouts between the two, 79-57, Nola's ERA is a full run lower. Both have proven they can be fantasy ace material as long as they stay healthy. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez landed on the disabled list for the first time since 2015, interrupting his excellent start to the season. All three carry injury risk, but each can be considered high-end an SP2 due to tremendous upside.

Tier 3

It's no coincidence that the two most frustrating starters of all land in the same group. Madison Bumgarner has delivered no value to owners who spent a second or third-round pick on him, but his rehab is coming along well and he figures to toe the rubber sometime in June. There may not be much of a buy-low window left, but if there is an impatient owner in your league, it may be worth exploring a deal.

Yu Darvish has been the most confusing, frustrating, polarizing, nauseating, inexplicably inconsistent pitcher in all of fantasy baseball. A move to the Windy City was supposed to help him, but he is looking more like last year's postseason version of Darvish than his previous self. There's clearly a chance for a huge bounceback and a buy-low opportunity for a pitcher who's won a single game and has an ERA close to five, but if he is indeed tipping pitches or being affected by MLB's new baseball, then we might not see the Darvish of old. For my part, I'm keeping the faith (for now).

Here's where things get interesting, as we find ourselves with a group of struggling aces, surprise stars, and outliers. First, the bad news.

Robbie Ray was back to his wild self before suffering an oblique injury and landing on the DL. He has potential to be a strong source of strikeouts again throughout the second half, but his return date is still unknown. Jose Quintana and Chris Archer have lost their grip on the strike zone and, much to the chagrin of Devo fans, been a huge disappointment in the WHIP department with 1.35 for Archer and 1.47 for Quintana. Unlike Ray, their strikeout rates are below a batter per inning, so things will need to turn around in the ratios quickly. The silver lining is that a strand rate around 70% could see positive regression and a potential trade for Archer could make a world of difference.

The stars of this tier are rookie Shohei Ohtani and fifth man in the rotation, Charlie Morton. Once again, Mr. Dubiel is not buying the hype of either player and has them outside the top 100, whereas Nick and I have them both squarely around the 60 mark. Morton may be pitching well over his career averages, but playing for the defending World Champs and having absolutely no pressure as the back end of a star-studded rotation certainly helps.

Tiers 4 and lower

Patrick Corbin nearly cracked the top 100 players after his stellar first month of the season. He's gotten a bit of luck, but his decision to start showcasing the curveball has led to a 12% leap in strikeout percentage and he hasn't slowed down yet. A player like Alex Wood is ranked in the very same neighborhood, but comes with injury risk and is suddenly on a far worse team, inexplicably.

Luis Castillo seems to have turned a corner after making an adjustment in his arm angle and hasn't allowed more than two ER in a start since May began. His ratios are still ugly, so make an offer to the Castillo owner in your league before he notices the turnaround. Likewise, Luke Weaver has fallen from grace since the season started, but is picking back up where he started in early April. Weaver has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last 19 innings, with an 18:3 K:BB ratio. He's only dropped 12 spots in our rankings update, but probably should be higher on this list given the way he's pitched lately.

Which young pitcher's breakout season are you most likely to buy into: Sean Newcomb, Blake Snell, or Sean Manaea? Our consensus has Manaea the highest, but I'm personally sold on Snell now that he's gotten a hold of the strike zone. He's upped his velocity by about two ticks on every pitch type and is holding batters to a .196 average. If he played anywhere other than the AL East, imagine the possibilities... Newcomb has more strikeout prowess and has done a great job keeping the ball on the ground, but his 11.2% walk rate still needs some work. Manaea has drawn the most attention due to his no-hitter and plays in a great pitching atmosphere, but the K upside isn't there.

Tier 5

It feels like Miles Mikolas still isn't getting enough credit for being the next incarnation of Greg Maddux (OK, not quite). His season thus far is reminiscent of Rick Porcello's 2016--quietly effective at keeping runners off base and racking up wins. He won't be the MVP in fantasy leagues, but he could be a difference-maker for a player that was barely drafted. Other names outside the top 10 tiers that don't seem to be getting enough credit include: J.A. Happ, Trevor Cahill, Chase Anderson, Tyson Ross, Jake Junis, and Mike Foltynewicz.

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