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Thanks for stopping by for another edition of Thunder Dan's Best MLB Bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, August 1st, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Luis Garcia o6.5K vs. BOS (+120 DK)
It’s a thin day for strikeouts, but I want to take a few shots anyway. Garcia has been pitching well for the Astros and I think he has one of the better matchups on the board against a struggling Boston team that might even be trading away a veteran or two in the coming days. Their L14 K rate is over 28%, so I boosted their season rate a few points to 24 to try not to overreact either. He has seven strikeouts in three of his last four and 6+ in five straight, so it’s going to be close, but I think he can get there.
Andrew Heaney o5.5K vs. SFG (-145 DK)
Heaney is a little risky and I was hoping for better odds to be honest. He’s only made four starts this season and has been derailed by injuries twice. But his numbers in those starts are awesome, you can’t deny it. And the Giants have been striking out more (24%) against lefties lately. He threw 71 pitches last time out and got four strikeouts in four innings in a tough K matchup vs. Washington. If he goes five or six innings today, I think he gets his six.
Luis Garcia to get a win (+140 DK)
I really like Houston today, but I don’t want to bet their ML at -180. And I am not sold on their run line either, so how can I maximize my return? Garcia to get a win is a pretty solid bet at these odds. He’s won five of his last seven starts with one of those being a no-decision in which he pitched seven innings of one-run ball. The Stros destroyed Eovaldi in their only meeting with him, getting six runs in the first two innings.
Guys to watch for: Both pitchers from the Miami-Cincy game aren’t posted yet but I want Hunter Greene at o5.5 if that’s where he starts and Braxton Garrett as high as 5.5 too (he’s been amazing and a printing press for us the last month).
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases (-105 FD)
J.D. Davis over 1.5 total bases (+125)
I am all over the Mets today in betting and DFS. Alonso and Davis are two guys who have a solid sample size of mashing against Corbin, and both have the batted ball data against lefties who throw sinker/slider to back up the BVP. If you feel so bold, toss a little on their HR props too, as both guys have hit over .300 with four homers each against Corbin.
Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Altuve has three career solo homers off Eovaldi, one of those coming early this season. But more than anything, I expect him to get 5 AB here against Eovaldi and a Boston bullpen that has been overworked and struggling lately. Altuve can get here a lot of different ways, with a HR, double, or just two singles and these odds are pretty solid for a leadoff hitter with his pop.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
NYM -1.5 (-145 DK)
NYM o4.5 runs (-140)
Mashing both bets together here with my rationale. It’s Scherzer against Corbin for Pete’s sake (Pete Alonso?)! The Mets have a solid history of knocking around Corbin, who is literally on his last legs as a starting pitcher and Scherzer gets a Nats lineup that continues to scuffle and we could even see Josh Bell or Juan Soto traded by game time.
NYY/SEA over 9 runs (-110)
NYY o4.5 runs (-145)
I’m double dipping on this total here as I like the Seattle side enough to bet the overall game total. German has been pretty sketchy while filling in for Severino and Seattle’s offense is good enough to score some runs off him before the bullpen gets involved. The Yanks’ bats are rolling and if they can’t score five runs off Marco G and the bullpen, then shame on them!
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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