The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 20

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 20 of the 2022 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The season is hurtling to a conclusion and with only a couple of weeks until fantasy playoffs commence and six weeks (or fewer) until the end of the road. With the trade deadline now passing for many leagues, the only way to improve our fantasy teams is with waiver claims so dropping strugglers now and avoiding holding on to someone for too long could be the difference between a championship or fantasy heartbreak.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Whit Merrifield – 2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays – 91% rostered

Merrifield's consecutive games played streak ended at 553 earlier this year following a foot injury. He was then placed on the restricted list for the Royals series in Toronto as he hadn't been vaccinated against covid. So it was obviously a surprise when the Blue Jays traded for Merrifield.

Concerns of a home/road platoon dissipated when it transpired Merrifield had since been vaccinated, meaning he could play home games for Toronto which also allayed fears fantasy managers had about him missing 50% of the remaining games this season.

In truth, what fantasy managers should have been worried about is Merrifield's lack of production. It was already a down year for Merrifield prior to the trade, and on the season, he's hitting just .240/.291/.342 this year with six homers, 43 RBI, 56 runs and 16 steals (107 games).

As a member of the Blue Jays, Merrifield is hitting .237/.293/.237 with no homers, one RBI, five runs and one stolen base (12 games). The Blue Jays have played 16 games since Merrifield joined and he's started just ten of them. Since last Saturday, Merrifield has only started four of their eight games.

Of his eight starts, Merrifield has hit second in the lineup twice with the remaining starts coming as the number seven or eight hitter, further minimizing his fantasy potential. Given he had an ADP of ~33 this preseason and he currently ranks as the 152nd best player on Yahoo!, it's fair to say Merrifield has been a disappointment.

Without laboring the point, below shows how Merrifield compares with the next five hitters taken in drafts according to their ADP (correct as of Friday).

No prizes for guessing who those five hitters are but you would have been better off drafting any of them instead of Merrifield, including the guy who hasn't played in over a month. While this does sound like I have a vendetta against Merrifield, I can assure you I don't.

In fact, I didn't draft him at all this year. And I'm not even suggesting you drop him. For now at least. Yes, he's struggled since joining the Blue Jays. But being traded midseason is a huge personal upheaval and we only have a tiny sample size to judge him on.

Verdict: Not playing every day and hitting in the bottom third of the lineup of course is a big disappointment for Merrifield's fantasy value. He does still carry that stolen base potential, but if his playing time situation doesn't improve in the coming days, I have no qualms in dropping Merrifield in shallower leagues.

Carlos Carrasco – SP, New York Mets – 72% rostered

The Mets placed Carrasco on the IL this past Tuesday, with a left oblique strain. The early prognosis is that Carrasco's expected to miss "up to a month". Loosely translated, that means Carrasco is going to miss a month. Given what Carrasco has overcome in recent years, missing a month with an oblique strain is pretty minor.

But it's still a blow to all concerned as Carrasco was having a solid bounceback year after posting a 6.04 ERA in 2021 (53.2 IP). This year, Carrasco has a 13-5 W-L record, 3.92 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 124 Ks from 23 starts (126.1 IP).

Oblique strains are notoriously tricky to overcome quickly, which is why the "up to a month" statement leads me to believe it will be a month (at best) that Carrasco misses. That takes us to mid-September and only two or three weeks left of the regular season.

Verdict: The prognosis doesn't give Carrasco enough time in fantasy to warrant holding a roster spot available for him and at this stage of the season, if you are chasing any category, you'll be better off picking someone up to help and dropping Carrasco. If you do have an unused IL spot, by all means, use it but don't feel obligated to hold on to Carrasco to the short-term detriment of your team.

Jared Walsh - 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels - 59% rostered

Regular Redditors will know that Walsh's name gets brought up a lot and will also know that I've said it's fine dropping Walsh for some weeks now. Given his name keeps cropping up, I feel it's only fair to include him this week to hopefully put to bed any concerns you have about dropping him.

After a breakout campaign last year, Walsh is hitting .223/.273/.387 this year with 15 homers, 44 RBI, 40 runs and two stolen bases (113 games). That's left him ranked as the 44th first baseman on Yahoo! and 88th ranked outfielder.

Like the Angels, Walsh has been on a massive slide in recent weeks. His home run on Friday was just his second since June 22nd (47 games), in which time he's hit .154/.208/.228. The 47 games isn't a big sample, but it's big enough to say this isn't just a little slump he's in.

Even if we go back to June 01st, he's still only hitting .201/.248/.322 with five homers, 15 RBI, 17 runs and one stolen base (67 games). A look at his rolling xwOBA this year shows us how much in decline Walsh has been in recent weeks.

There's every chance Walsh has been playing with an injury that has contributed to his struggles, but we won't know anything for sure until such time he's placed on the IL or the season is over. Regardless of the cause, Walsh's prolonged struggles don't warrant rostering him in fantasy.

Verdict: Part of Walsh's value was hitting in the heart of a lineup that contained Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. With injuries to the latter two, Walsh's fantasy value had already diminished somewhat. Now he's hitting in the bottom half of the lineup, even a returning Trout probably won't help pull Walsh back into fantasy relevancy. He can be dropped in any redraft league.

Hold For Now

Tommy Edman – 2B/SS/OF, St Louis Cardinals – 94% rostered

I was surprised to see Edman rostered in over 90% of leagues given how badly he's declined in recent weeks. His season's numbers are impressive, with eight homers, 39 RBI, 74 runs and 24 steals, while hitting .253/.315/.368 (114 games). Since July 01st, Edman has hit .216/.257/.295 with one homer, seven RBI, 16 runs and five stolen bases.

I was never sold on the power Edman displayed at the start of the year given he had 27 homers in 306 career games before this season, but there's no doubting the speed given Edman tallied 30 stolen bases in 159 games last year.

Edman's hot start to the year saw him move into the leadoff spot for the Cardinals. But his last start atop the order came on July 27th with seven starts coming as the number nine hitter and just two in the top half of the lineup (as the number two hitter).

Edman's playing time is also diminishing as he's started 11 of the Cardinals' 15 August games. Mike Kurland (who is excellent at tracking lineups), noted this about Edman's recent playing time.

Since 7/31 the #Cardinals have started against 10 RHP. Tommy Edman has started in just 5 of those games. Obviously not a strict platoon but plenty of "rest" for him vs RHP since then.

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) August 18, 2022

It's a testament to how well Edman played in the first three months of the season as on Yahoo!, he ranks seventh at second base, seventh at shortstop and 12th among outfielders. In the last 30 days, he's only ranking as the 40th second baseman, 37th shortstop and 75th outfielder.

Edman's speed (86th percentile) is enough to warrant rostering him in fantasy leagues. But if you are set for steals in shallower leagues and can't make up or lose roto points in stolen bases but you need help elsewhere, sacrificing Edman for someone who can help you in the other categories isn't the worst idea.

Alejandro Kirk – C, Toronto Blue Jays – 88% rostered

After entering the season with an ADP of ~220, being the 12th catcher taken in drafts, Kirk has outperformed expectations and is currently ranked as the fifth catcher on Yahoo!. That's after putting up a .304/.383/.456 slash line with 12 homers, 47 RBI, 50 runs and no steals (106 games).

Concerns about Kirk's playing time were justified, given he ranked in the 37th percentile for framing last year leaving him unlikely to catch often and needing to be the Blue Jays DH. But his hot bat and improved defense have led to him being a key part of the Toronto offense.

Regular readers will be aware I preach that Statcast profiles aren't the be-all-and-end-all, and still need context. But Kirk's is telling as we can see his framing is now in the 89th percentile and although his pop time to second isn't great, Fangraphs DEF rating of 9.5 (fielding runs above average) has Kirk eighth of the 20 catchers with 500 innings played behind the plate.

While not a Gold Glover, Kirk's defense is such that the Blue Jays can put him behind the plate and not have to force him in the lineup as a DH every day. And his bat has certainly justified his inclusion as an everyday player.

According to Fangraphs, Kirk leads the team in WAR (3.2), is second in wRC+ (138) and second in wOBA (.367). His expected stats confirm he's not been lucky and any hitter profile that has such good plate discipline skills while making hard contact regularly is something I'm buying into. So, why is Kirk included in this article?

Well, he's been struggling of late and some fantasy managers are jumping off the Kirk bandwagon. Kirk's last homer came on July 26th and he's hitting just .264/.355/.321 this month. But as I state in the introduction every week;

"I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone."

Unlike Edman and Merrifield, Kirk's playing time isn't in question and he's not a one-trick pony who relies on hitting homers or stealing bases to justify his fantasy value. And when that stops happening, his value diminishes. Kirk is also still performing at a better level than those two despite his slight slump.

And it's not like a .264 batting average over a three-week period is even that bad. The key for me is Kirk's playing time and his role. For now, Kirk is still an everyday player and is hitting in the heart of the Blue Jays' lineup so I'm not considering dropping him as long as they hold true.

The Blue Jays aren't panicking over a small sample and neither should fantasy managers. If Kirk does struggle over the next couple of weeks and drops down the order or sits on the bench more frequently, then we have to make a decision. Until such time, I'm holding.

Tyler Mahle - SP, Minnesota Twins - 80% rostered

The Twins acquisition of Mahle at the trade deadline looked like being a shrewd one. After allowing four earned runs in six innings in his first start for the Twins, Mahle then pitched six shutout innings in his second start. On Wednesday, Mahle completed 2.1 IP without allowing a run but had to leave the game due to shoulder discomfort.

Mahle underwent a precautionary MRI which showed no structural damage and no IL stint will be required. This has still been a worrying development for Mahle, who missed three weeks with shoulder discomfort earlier in the season and it was clear during Wednesday's outing that he had a problem with his fastball velocity down ~4.5 MPH on its usual mark.

Mahle has had a solid season, especially given he's had to pitch in the second-most hitter-friendly ballpark (according to Statcast) for most of it. In 22 starts, Mahle has a 6-7 W-L record, 4.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 126 Ks (118.2 IP), with a3.38 xERA, 3.98 xFIP and 3.82 SIERA.

Mahle is due to start on Tuesday against the Astros but it remains to be seen if he will make that start, be pushed back or have it skipped altogether. Regardless of when he next pitches, I'd be reluctant to start Mahle on my fantasy teams until I've seen he's healthy and the velocity is back up. If the shoulder isn't right and he does have to miss time, I'm most likely dropping Mahle.

On the Hot Seat

Ketel Marte – 2B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks – 91% rostered

At this point, we can all be confident that the 32 homers Marte hit in 2019 (144 games) won't be repeated. Given he's hit 26 homers in 239 games since then and had 22 homers in 402 games prior to 2019, we won't be seeing 30+ home runs from Marte again.

The big disappointment Marte's fantasy managers are feeling is his batting average. Coming into this year, Marte was a .283 hitter and over the last three years, had a .318/.374/.543 slash line. This year, Marte is hitting .257/.343/.434 with 10 homes, 42 RBI, 56 runs and four stolen bases.

That's left Marte ranked as the 29th second baseman and 58th outfielder (according to Yahoo!). Not terrible and still about rosterable but a far cry from his ADP of ~78 (10th second baseman and 22nd outfielder taken).

If we compare Marte's Statcast profile last year to this, it offers a good visual representation of Marte's struggles.

In a nutshell, Marte is walking more, striking out more and not making hard contact as often. Marte did only play 90 games last year following two IL stints with hamstring issues. And Marte hasn't started a game this week due to a hamstring problem, so that's certainly something to be concerned about.

Looking at Marte's plate discipline numbers, he's still swinging at around the same rate of pitches as he was last year and he's not suddenly swinging at more pitches outside of the zone. He's simply making less contact than before.

The above table shows Marte's swing and contact rates (courtesy of Fangraphs). The 'O' numbers are for pitches outside of the zone while the 'Z' numbers are for pitches in the zone. The only significant difference between 2021 and this year is Marte making less contact on pitches inside the zone.

To be honest, I don't have an answer for why that is and Marte's 80.5% Contact% is a career-low, as is his 85.8% Z-Contact%. Maybe his hamstring woes have played a factor in his swing. Who knows, but the fact Marte has a career-low batting average suggests if this is a new approach, it's not helping his fantasy value.

In points leagues, Marte has more value given his 10.6% BB% and 17.8% K%. But the concern is now Marte's hamstring and given he's experienced issues with it before and the Diamondbacks are contending for anything, caution is likely.

I'm not dropping Marte right now and still think he can be a solid, if unspectacular, contributor in fantasy during the rest of the season. But that is entirely based on his health which is a question mark and would be the trigger for me to drop him if a lengthy IL stint is on tap.

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Jose Berrios – SP, Toronto Blue Jays – 83% rostered

It's been a real mixed bag from Berrios this year. His season stats aren't great, especially for the 20th starting pitcher taken in drafts (~76 ADP). In 24 starts, Berrios has a 9-5 W-L record, 5.39 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 117 Ks (128.2 IP).

Berrios has 12 quality starts, so 50% of the time he's going 6.0 IP with no more than three earned runs allowed. The 12 quality starts are the only occasions Berrios has completed six innings. But when he's been bad, he's been very bad. Twice, Berrios has allowed eight earned runs, three times he's allowed six earned runs and twice he's allowed five earned runs.

We should've known things could go like this after his season debut in which Berrios recorded just one out and was tagged for four earned runs. And just when we thought he could be trusted again, Berrios finds a way to hurt us.

In six July starts, Berrios had a 3-0 W-L record, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 42 Ks in 36.0 IP. His 28.2% K% was considerably higher than the 20.9% K% he has on the season while his 3.01 xFIP and 3.02 SIERA supported his improvements during the month.

Then came a five-run outing against the Twins (3.2 IP) and that was followed by an eight-run outing (4.0 IP) against the Guardians. Not an ideal way to start August. On Thursday, Berrios looked back to near his best with a 6.2 IP outing allowing one earned run against the Yankees. Although this is a Yankees team that ranks as one of the worst offensive teams in recent weeks.

Berrios' curveball remains elite, with a .169 AVG and .345 SLG against it. But his fastball has been dreadful, with a .364 AVG and .642 SLG against it. We can see below how his pitches have fared year on year, comparing their wOBA.

Berrios' underlying numbers aren't great, although they do suggest he's been unlucky, with a 5.37 xERA, 4.10 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA and .315 BABIP. Nothing great but his 5.39 ERA is more elevated than it should be.

Rostering Berrios really comes down to your league and tolerance levels. He's certainly not a must-start and his dreadful outings tend to be followed by another. But when he's been good, he's been a top-50 SP so starting Berrios comes down to whether you can risk your ratios or not. Trying to guess when he'll be good and when he'll be bad isn't a game I really want to be playing.

Tyler O'Neill – OF, St Louis Cardinals – 79% rostered

After a monstrous second-half to his 2021 campaign, the helium seriously found its way into O'Neill's ADP (~49), the 16th outfielder taken in drafts. Unfortunately, injuries and poor performances have left O'Neill ranking as the 77th outfielder on Yahoo!.

On the year, O'Neill is hitting .230/.299/.355 with seven homers, 41 RBI, 38 runs and nine stolen bases (71 games). Shoulder and hamstring injuries have cost O'Neill four weeks of the season and after starting the season as the Cardinals' number three hitter, he's found himself hitting in the bottom half of the lineup more often than not.

Fantasy managers hoping for a repeat of last year when O'Neill became a superstar in the second half will have been disappointed so far. In truth, O'Neill's first half last year wasn't any less impressive than his second half and any sort of repeat this year would be a huge boost to his fantasy managers.

With a sprint speed in the 98th percentile, O'Neill remains a threat on the bases but it's safe to say 2022 has seen significant regression considering what he did last year. Last year's second half looks like a fantasy unicorn and it's unlikely we see anything near a repeat this year.

O'Neill's fantasy managers would gladly take something resembling his 2021 first half over the next few weeks but the reality is that the numbers O'Neill has put up this year are a fair reflection of his performances. I'm still holding for the upside alone but in shallower leagues, depending what I'm needing to do over the final few weeks, dropping O'Neill is totally understandable

Trey Mancini – 1B/OF, Houston Astros – 75% rostered

Following Mancini's trade from the Orioles, I wrote about how it impacts his fantasy value (which you can read here). My conclusion was that he's moving to a better ballpark, in a better lineup and shouldn't see much of a drop in playing time. The first two points were correct, but the playing time has been lacking.

In 15 games with the Astros, Mancini has four homers, ten RBI, seven runs and no steals with a .204/.231/.469 slash line. On the season, has 14 homers, 51 RBI, 46 runs and no stolen bases, while hitting .261/.333/.412.

But since joining the Astros, Mancini has started just 12 of their 18 games (coming off the bench in three), eight of which have come as the DH, three at first base and one in left field. I was expecting Kyle Tucker to possibly move from right field into center with Mancini playing more right field, but I couldn't have been more wrong about that.

The important thing is Mancini has been displaying the power that was sapped away by the Orioles changing the left field dimensions and fence. So his fantasy value really boils down to quality over quantity.

He's been averaging a couple of homers and a handful of RBI and runs each week since the trade which is more than most players will have put up on your rosters so it's hard to justify dropping him. In daily rosters move leagues, Mancini is much more rosterable but he's still a fine option in all but the shallowest weekly lineup leagues.

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