Trey Mancini Traded to Astros - Fantasy Baseball Impact

August 2, 2022

We look at the potential fantasy baseball impact of the trade that sent first baseman and outfielder Trey Mancini from the Orioles to the Astros ahead of the 2022 MLB trade deadline.

The trade season burst into life on Monday and the Houston Astros have been among the most active team making moves.

One of the most notable was the addition of Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles.

But what is the fallout of the trade and how will it impact your fantasy teams?

Ballpark Upgrade

The immediate reaction for Mancini's stakeholders is excitement from the boost he'll get from getting out of Oriole Park. After the huge changes to left field, it probably comes as no surprise that Mancini is on track for his lowest home run total in a full season.

Mancini has 10 homers, 41 RBI, 39 runs and no steals while hitting .268/.347/.404 (92 games). If we look at his spray chart overlaid onto Minute Maid Ballpark, just look at how many extra home runs he'd have hit to left field if he started the season with the Astros.

According to Statcast, Mancini's expected home run (xHR) total at Minute Maid Park this year is 21, more than double his actual total. The only ballparks with a higher xHR total for Mancini are Reds (24), Rockies (23) and Diamondbacks (23). Mancini's 11 xHR at the Orioles is tied-fewest.

Ballpark upgrade? ✓

Playing Time Concerns

Of Mancini's 92 games played, 51 have been as the Orioles' DH. With Yordan Alvarez locked in as the regular DH for the Astros (52 of his 87 games played have been as the DH), Mancini might need to see more time in the outfield or first base.

That shouldn't be an issue for Mancini as he's played 29 games at first base and 13 in the outfield this season. The Astros can move Kyle Tucker across from right field if they choose or sit Yuli Gurriel occasionally with Mancini at first base

I expect the Astros to be a bit more fluid with their lineups to accommodate Mancini but he could see the odd day off, more than he did with the Orioles. But there should still be enough playing time for Mancini to still be a regular in the lineups and not someone you need to consider dropping from your fantasy teams.

Sufficient playing time? ✓

Lineup upgrade

Mancini exclusively hit second, third or fourth for the Orioles, but it might be harder to crack into the top half of the Astros lineup. The team has been deploying Jose Altuve, Gurriel, Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Tucker as their top five. It's hard to see Mancini usurp anyone outright, except maybe Gurriel.

But there's no doubting the Astros offense packs a greater punch than the Orioles (as fun as the Orioles have been this year). Below is where each team ranks in offensive categories this year.

Even if Mancini does hit in the bottom half of the Astros' lineup, he should still be able to at least tally a similar number of runs and RBI in a significantly better offense.

Lineup upgrade? ✓

Conclusion

Given Mancini had an ADP of ~203 this preseason, it's hard to say he's been a total bust. And the lack of power can be attributed to the Orioles' decision-making over their ballpark rather than any fault with Mancini's performances.

Below shows how he's compared according to Yahoo! rankings (based on standard 5x5 scoring) with his ADP at each of his eligible positions.

Given Mancini is moving to a considerably better ballpark, an improved lineup while likely not seeing any dramatic reduction in his playing time, this should be considered a big win for Mancini's fantasy managers. He's certainly passed the 'three-tick test'.

Mancini could potentially double his home run total in the final two months of the season, while putting up similar RBI and runs to what he will have had in Baltimore and could improve on his batting average. You can't really ask for much more from a fantasy standpoint when one of your players is traded.

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