RADIO
Although many of us in the golfing industry maligned the exclusion of Match Play in the current PGA rota, one tournament, in particular, has received a noticeable bump in star power, looking for one last competitive run before teeing it up in next week's Masters.
Ordinarily considered a tame opening act for the year's first Major Championship, the Valero Texas Open now features a field with 11 of the OWGR's Top 25 -- an exciting prospect not just for the city of San Antonio, but for golf bettors looking for one last data point ahead of Augusta. The course they'll face this week is far from a mid-major cupcake either, as TPC San Antonio has routinely ranked inside of the top 15 in Scoring Difficulty on the PGA Tour.
Before we get into the illustrious odds board on tap for golf bettors later in the week, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on TPC San Antonio and the 2024 Valero Texas Open!
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The Golf Course
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) - Par 72; 7,438 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Corey Conners (-15) over Sam Stevens
- 2022 - J.J. Spaun (-13) over Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar
- 2021 - Jordan Spieth (-18) over Charley Hoffman
- 2019 - Corey Conners (-20) over Charley Hoffman
- 2018 - Andrew Landry (-17) over Trey Mullinax and Sean O'Hair
TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 31.3 yards; 12th narrowest on the PGA Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 297.2 yards; 14th highest on Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 56.2%; 10th lowest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.31; 9th lowest on Tour
- Rough Penalty -- 0.11; Lowest on Tour
- Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.48; 4th highest on Tour
- Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 2.3%; 12th lowest on Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.020); 11th toughest on Tour
After four days in Houston which afforded bombers ample room to operate off of the tee, TPC San Antonio provides a much more nuanced driving test for the game's best. Similar to what we saw last week, the rough around this Greg Norman venue is as benign as you'll ever see on the PGA Tour: ranking inside the bottom five in rough penalty in all but one season since 2015.
However, for players with dispersion patterns wide enough to miss both the fairway and intermediate cuts of rough, TPC San Antonio begins to bear its true teeth. From dense treelines to rocky outcrops and lowland Texas brush, peril is lurking everywhere you look outside of these manicured confines. Over the last eight seasons, only Sedgefield, Innisbrook, and The Renaissance Club have issued harsher penalties to missed fairways outside of the rough lines.
This punitive approach to exceptionally wayward tee shots provides a lot of context for the recent successes of Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Lucas Glover, and Kevin Streelman (all of whom rank inside the top five in SG: Total here over the last five seasons). With only four of the 10 par 4's here measuring over 450 yards, distance won't be nearly the same asset as we saw around last week's demanding set of two-shotters in Houston.
Instead, I'll be leaning far more into accuracy-intensive metrics like Fairways Gained and Good Drive Percentage, as priority one around this Greg Norman design will be to avoid the hazardous waste areas lurking around every corner.
TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 59.7%; 6th lowest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.028); 7th toughest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- <125 yards (accounts for 27.6% of historical approach shots)
- 150-175 yards (20.2)
- 175-200 yards (18.4%)
With a past champions list that includes Corey Conners (x2), Jordan Spieth, Kevin Chappell, and Charley Hoffman, you can bet that approach play ranks as one of the top through-lines among TPC San Antonio's most prolific performers. In fact, over the last six Valero Texas Open iterations, only J.J. Spaun (+2.8), managed to attain this title whilst gaining less than 7.5 strokes with his iron play.
That sort of ball-striking upside hasn't manifested without a few warning shots of incoming form, either, as each of the last eight Valero Champions entered the week having gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach in one of his last three prior starts.
In terms of specific proximity ranges to account for, TPC San Antonio isn't what I'd call a "specialist" course. Only one 25-yard range has historically crested the 20% mark in approach distribution (150-175), and only the 75 to 100-yard range comes in substantially above its year-long baseline.
Wedge play is the one specific stat I'll be paying the most attention to at a micro-level, as over 27% of historic approach shots have come from inside 125 yards (5.5% above Tour Average), but generally, this is a week where I'll be leaning on more all-encompassing iron stats (SG: Approach, Opportunities Gained, Green in Regulation Rate, etc.). Players will have to hit a multitude of different clubs into these greens over the course of the week, so long-term prowess throughout the bag is much more meaningful than an elite ability in one particular subset of approach play.
TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 58.7%; 1.2% above Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.050); 3rd toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.009); 11th toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (+0.052); 7th easiest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.003); 12th toughest on Tour
Although the Valero isn't the first tournament that comes to mind when ranking the PGA Tour's most demanding tee-to-green tests, a sub-60% green in-regulation rate does point to a venue where even the game's most reliable ball-strikers will have to lean on their short games. In my modeling, I'm treating TPC San Antonio much like how I treated Memorial Park last week -- as the difficulty around the green complexes here is largely dependent on where you leave yourself.
With the surrounding overseeded rough measuring just 2.25" in length, TPC San Antonio's rough difficulty rates out very similarly to a venue like Houston last week or PGA West earlier this year -- simply not enough variables to test the best players in the world. From the more tightly mown fairways, it gets a bit tougher to create consistent outcomes, but the bunkers have historically stolen the show when it comes to the greenside hazards that players fear most in the Alamo City.
Since 2015, only Riviera and PGA West have featured a lower sand save percentage -- so unlike most weeks on the PGA Tour, an approach shot that ends up in one of these greenside bunkers will be a true sweat for those of us refreshing shot tracker. This is one of the few weeks all year where Sand Saves will be a true tie-breaker in my modeling (superseding general short-game metrics like SG: Around the Greens or Bogey Avoidance), as not only are the bunkers difficult here around TPC San Antonio, but only one green on the entire property (9), goes unguarded by these treacherous traps.
TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Poa Trivialis overseed
- Stimpmeter: 11
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.9% (0.2% below Tour Average)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.002); 14th toughest on Tour
Although it's never a good idea to completely undersell the value of a hot putter, TPC San Antonio has done a good job historically of deemphasizing putting performance within its layout. Ball-striking has outweighed putting in predictiveness by a factor of over 3:2, and these slower, relatively benign green surfaces do rank as some of the easiest to putt on from inside of 15 feet.
Unlike next week, I don't believe the greens here in San Antonio are nearly nuanced enough to require a prolific historic track record to navigate, and we've routinely seen some pretty substandard putters perform well above baseline here in recent years (Corey Conners, Sam Stevens, and Aaron Rai immediately come to mind). I will be weighing recent proficiency on similarly overseeded green complexes (there have been a lot over the last two months), but don't let Valero's relative lack of stature fool you: this is far from a putting contest. I'd much prefer to lean on more predictive metrics (listed below) and play the odds that at least a few of my guys can find the requisite touch required on these in-exacting surfaces.
Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):
- Recent Approach Form (using general stats like SG: Approach, Birdie Opportunities Created, Greens in Regulation, etc.)
- Driving Accuracy/Good Drive %
- Sand Saves
- Par 5 Scoring/Birdie or Better Percentage
- Recent Putting Splits on Overseeded Poa Greens (most notably: Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West)
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Ludvig Aberg
Some players fade it. Some players draw it.
Ludvig Aberg hits them long and straight 👀 pic.twitter.com/aPyPf4vuLY
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 7, 2023
Many in the industry (myself included), were quick to pencil in Ludvig Aberg as a main threat on some of the PGA Tour's most demanding venues (Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Riviera, etc.). However, in his first lap around the top level, it seems as if the Swedish sensation has found it easier at venues that require a more strategic approach with the driver. Three of his best off-the-tee performances to date have come at the likes of Sedgefield (narrow fairways, high miss penalty), Oakdale (similar story), and in his last start at TPC Sawgrass, where he ranked third for the week in Total Driving around one of the most treacherous driving venues on Tour.
The accuracy-intensive confines of TPC San Antonio would seem to set up very similarly to the venues of many of his past triumphs. When you take into account his recent developments in the other areas of his game, it becomes clear that Aberg is primed to capture his second Tour victory only three months after his first.
Over his last 36 rounds, Ludvig ranks leads this field in four of my key categories: (Birdie Opportunities Created, Birdie or Better Rate, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Total Ball-Striking), and three weeks ago, he recorded his best-ever approach week as a professional (+5.8) in an 8th-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship.
Unfortunately for bettors, Aberg's recent run of form has caused his world ranking to surge past all but two players in this field (Rory McIlroy/Brian Harman). However, this week's field isn't nearly as top-heavy as what we've seen over the last two weeks, and there are enough marquee names/course horses in attendance for me to carry some level of faith in a bettable number. I'd be comfortable backing him at prices as high as 16-1, as this feels like a prime spot for one of the Tour's most in-form commodities.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel chips it in for birdie from below the green on 9. 👏
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @TCHouOpen pic.twitter.com/V96OcHt6Hp
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 30, 2024
A Sunday 64 spoiled any chances Billy had of staying under the radar this week, but even at an inflated price, it will be difficult to argue against the merits of our 2014 FedEx Champ. His 7th-place finish in Houston marked the third top-twelve result Horschel has recorded this month, and maybe more impressively, Billy managed to gain strokes in each of the four strokes gained categories for the third time in four starts.
This recent surge in form comes at a perfect time for Horschel, as although he's unlikely to earn a spot in next week's Masters without a victory, upcoming stops in San Antonio, Hilton Head, and New Orleans have all been happy hunting grounds for the Florida Gator. Here at Valero, Billy has recorded three top-five finishes in seven starts since 2013 and has never lost strokes off of the tee around this layout. These lofty baselines should come as no surprise for such a reliable driver of the ball, and if Horschel can maintain his momentum in the game's other facets (rates out 6th over his last 36 rounds in GIR Percentage, 4th in SG: Putting, and 9th from Tee-to-Green), it's hard to envision anyone with a higher floor.
Again, I don't expect us to receive much of a discount on an in-form player with this sort of resume around TPC San Antonio. Still, if the multitude of bigger names up top allow Horschel to drift down into the 40-1 range, I'd have no problem taking a shot on a guy who undoubtedly would love nothing more than to win his way into next week's illustrious field.
Ryan Moore
I’ve been thinking about this second shot into the Par 5, 14th at Copperhead by Ryan Moore all week.
I want to throw him in the back of my DeLorean and gun it to 2013. pic.twitter.com/OCiNLKzp1C
— Matt Vincenzi (@MattVincenziPGA) March 28, 2024
From J.J. Spaun two years ago, to Andrew Landry in 2018 and Monday-qualifier Corey Conners in 2019, the Valero Texas Open has been known to produce its fair share of long-shot winners. And there is perhaps nobody in this field that complements this set of off-the-wall champions quite like 41-year-old Ryan Moore. Already a five-time winner on the PGA Tour (most recently in 2016), Moore has found his footing in the month of March -- recording three straight made cuts and, more importantly, some of the most prolific ball-striking splits of anyone in the field.
In three appearances from Sawgrass, to Innisbrook, and in Houston last week, Ryan has gained an incredible 19.7 strokes with his irons. This incredible figure would lap the next best player in that span (Corey Conners), by 2.6 shots, and ranks as far-and-away the best ball-striking stretch of Moore's illustrious career.
Of course, before a string of injuries put him on the verge of retirement, Moore was known as one of the PGA Tour's most reliable tee-to-green entities, ranking inside the top 30 in Driving Accuracy every season from 2012 to 2020 and gaining nearly a full stroke per tournament with his irons. Four years later, it seems the 41-year-old vet is returning to peak form, and with three top-ten finishes already to his name here in San Antonio (2012, 2018, 2019), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his name pop up on a fourth successive leaderboard.
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