Scouting the Routing: 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open

With the Florida Swing now in the rear view mirror, golf fans can officially begin the countdown to the first Major Championship of the New Year! In less than two weeks time, the best players in the world will descend on Augusta National to battle for the title of Masters Champions and a coveted Green Jacket.

To prepare for their first Major Charge of 2024, we're likely to see many of the PGA Tour's top players choose to play their final tune-up event either this week in Houston, or next week in San Antonio. While the Valero has traditionally held the title of "Masters warm-up act," it could easily be argued that this week's test could actually give us better insights regarding the state of the games of Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Wyndham Clark, amongst others -- as Memorial Park's daunting 7,400-yard layout combined with an Augusta-like emphasis on long-iron play and chipping from tightly mown lies has made it one of the more demanding tests on the PGA Tour.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Memorial Park Golf Club and the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open!

The Golf Course

Memorial Park Golf Club - Par 70 7,412 yards

Past Champions

• 2022 - Tony Finau (-16) over Tyson Alexander
• 2021 - Jason Kokrak (-10) over Scottie Scheffler and Kevin Tway
• 2020 - Carlos Ortiz (-13) over Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama

Memorial Park by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 31.4 yards; 13th narrowest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 289.9 yards; 15th highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 56.4%; 12th lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.30; 8th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.009); 11th easiest on Tour

After waxing poetic throughout the Florida Swing on the importance of positional driving and penalty avoidance, our first stop in the Lone Star State will present players with one of the biggest ballparks on the PGA Tour. Only two of the ten Par 4s here at Memorial Park play under 440 yards, and a whopping six Par 4s on the property measure over 490 yards. This is far from the club-down extravaganza we've seen over the last few weeks at Innisbrook, PGA National, and TPC Sawgrass, as players will be required to hit driver off of virtually every tee box.

Further emphasizing the bomber narrative this week is the fact that Tournament organizers have cut the rough down to 1.25" from its historical 2.5" baseline. Memorial Park was never known to carry the stiffest rough penalty on Tour (0.29 strokes over the last three years), but this recent development could well put it on par with some of the most forgiving driving tests on the PGA Tour. With virtually zero bunkers on site and only two tee shots where water truly comes into play (16 & 17), players will be incentivized to tee it up and cut off as much length as possible on these monstrous par 4s and 5s.

Past leaderboards here in Houston would also reinforce this strategy, as we've routinely seen the likes of Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Jhonattan Vegas, and Dustin Johnson make their way to the tops of the SG: OTT rankings. The distance here has proven to be as large of an asset as we've seen since Vidanta Vallarta or Torrey Pines, and for the first time since we entered Florida, my modeling will reflect this reality. I'm weighing distance at a 2x clip compared to accuracy and would need an especially tantalizing profile in the other three categories to even consider a player without requisite length.

Memorial Park by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 62.3%; 15th lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.011); 14th toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounts for 25.9% of historical approach shots)
  • 150-175 yards (20.8%)
  • 125-150 yards (16.9%)

As you'd likely have surmised from the course dimensions discussed in the off-the-tee section, Memorial Park rates out as one of the more long-iron-intensive courses on the PGA Tour. Over the last three seasons, players have hit roughly 26% of their approaches from 200 yards out or further, and last year, a whopping 33.6% of approach shots came from 200 yards-plus.

This ratio of long-irons is so statistically dominate that virtually every other proximity range comes in at or below it's season-long average. There is something to be said for looking at proximity splits from 125-175 yards, as the 34% of second shots we project in that subset is the only distribution that can rival that of 200+, but this is certainly a week to look into specialists as opposed to generalists from an approach perspective.

In particular, I'll be weighing proximity splits from the aforementioned ranges, as well as GIR Percentage, Poor Shot Avoidance, and Strokes Gained per Shot. Despite my extra emphasis placed on driving as a whole this week, approach play has still been nearly 2x as predictive as off-the-tee here historically. If a player does lack the requisite length I talked about in the opening section, the best thing he can do to mitigate this disadvantage is to be an elite long-iron player. We've seen the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, and Joel Dahmen utilize this strategy to at least somewhat keep pace with the bombers who have dominated here historically, and if anyone is to break the current trend at the top, my money would turn to a similar caliber of ball-striker (Si Woo, Hoge, etc.).

Memorial Park by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 56.2%; 1.4% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.019); 10th easiest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.058); 4th toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.044); 6th toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.045); 5th toughest on Tour

After Jason Kokrak proved in 2022 that you could overcome an exceedingly faulty short game to win here (-3.7 SG: ARG), you could certainly make the argument that elite ball-striking has the capability to outweigh deficiencies around the greens at Memorial Park. When we begin to zoom out, however, it becomes apparent that an elite short game could well provide an edge we haven't seen in many weeks when projecting top finishers.

Since 2021, only six top-ten finishers have managed to attain that position whilst losing strokes around the greens (17%), and in correlation with Strokes Gained: Total, around the green play has actually proven to be more predictive than off-the-tee when projecting Top 10/20s.

Much of this has to do with the difficulty associated with getting the ball up and down around Memorial Park, as despite having virtually no sand and relatively sparse Bermuda rough, this course has ranked as the fifth toughest venue on Tour to gain strokes around the greens.

Much of this comes from the tightly mown greenside surrounds -- which as we see at Augusta National and Riviera every year, tends to wreak havoc on those without a perfect chipping action. From its fairway cuts, Memorial Park has never ranked outside the top eight in up-and-down difficulty, and with the rough being cut down even further this year, I believe this metric will be the key to finding players with an added edge around these difficult green complexes.

In particular, I'll be looking at Congaree, Southern Hills, TPC Sawgrass, and Quail Hollow as other Bermudagrass courses with similarly tight greenside surrounds, with Augusta National and Riviera as auxiliary comps despite their divergent agronomies. I'll be weighing around the green play as heavily as I have all year, and a positive history on these sorts of complexes, in particular, will be treated as a legitimate asset in projecting win equity.

Memorial Park by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- MiniVerde Bermudagrass w/ Poa Trivialis overseed
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.7% (0.4% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.001); 16th easiest on Tour

The Houston Open's move from its traditional time slot in November into the early spring has had the greatest effect on its green surfaces. Similar to what we saw at Sawgrass after its move to March in 2019, Memorial Park has added a poa trivialis overseed on top of its base layer of Bermuda. This grass tends to germinate at lower temperatures and provides a much smoother roll than the more granular pure Bermuda greens we'll see later this summer.

The good news for golf handicappers is that we've seen a plethora of similarly overseeded green surfaces within the last two months. PGA West, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, and Innisbrook have all featured greens with a corollary agronomy, and Austin CC (traditional host of the WGC-Match Play for which this event has replaced), also falls into the "overseeded Bermudagrass" category.

This sudden agronomic change does make it more difficult to translate past putting performances here in past Houston Open iterations. Still, if there has been one facet of Memorial Park that has provided relief to the best players in the world, it has been on the greens. We've never seen this course rank inside the top 15 in putting difficulty, and despite its above-average green size,  the 3-putt percentage here sits substantially lower than the Tour average.

I will be using recent performances at the aforementioned corollaries to identify those coming in with confidence on these types of surfaces, but these greens aren't nearly severe enough for me to weigh specifically, putting stats any more than on a normal week. Particularly given just how demanding this course plays from tee through green, I would much rather lean on players with tried-and-true baselines in the three aforementioned categories than rely on below-average ball-striking entities to make up the difference with their putters.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Long-Iron Proficiency (Prox: 200+, GIR %, Poor Shot Avoidance, SG/Shot)
• SG: ARG (Particularly on other courses featuring tightly mown greenside surrounds -- bonus points if Bermuda)
• Driving Distance + SG: OTT
• Historic/Recent Putting Acumen on similarly overseeded green surfaces (Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, Austin CC, PGA West)
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling
• Par 5 Scoring

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Sahith Theegala

Birdie.
Eagle.
Birdie.

Sahith Theegala is on fire. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/J57OPjYYRf

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) March 16, 2024

We talked at length in our Sawgrass article just how enticing the potential could be for Sahith Theegala should his recent driver gains remain a constant, and after yet another promising performance off the tee at the PLAYERS, I'm comfortable in him keeping the train rolling around Memorial Park this week.

The 1.3 shots Theegala gained with his driver in Ponte Vedra marks the sixth time in seven 2024 starts in which he's rated out above the field average off-the-tee. With more generous fairways and a lower miss penalty on tap in Houston this week, Sahith should be primed to take advantage of these newly found gains. In a 22nd-place finish here back in 2022, Theegala was largely held back by a miserable 42.3% fairway percentage (4th lowest in the field). This year, however, Theegala has ranked right around field average over his last 24 rounds, and the rest of his game looks as well suited for a venue as we've seen all year.

Theegala ranks third in this field over his last 50 rounds in Long Iron Proximity, and he ranks second in Stroke Gained: Putting. In his last start around Memorial Park (2022), Theegala gained a whopping five strokes to the field with his around-the-green prowess. He's long been known as one of the Tour's preeminent short-game maestros, and off of the tight greenside lies we'll see this week in Houston, Sahith will have every opportunity to showcase his world-class touch. Notably, Theegala has also found success around the greens on two of the PGA Tour's other most difficult short game tests: recording the second-best ARG week of his career at Riviera (2023), and gaining over a shot and a half to the field around Augusta National's greenside surrounds (on his debut no less).

I cannot outline enough just how impressed I've been with Sahith's sudden progression in an area of his game that has historically held him back from fulfilling his tantalizing potential. Despite a 2024 schedule that includes some of the most demanding driving venues on the PGA Tour (Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, TPC Sawgrass, etc.), he currently ranks as the 26th best Total Driver of the ball on the planet (per Strokes Gained). If you can guarantee me another three-month driving stretch like the one he's just showcased, there's no doubt in my mind that Theegala will find himself in the winner's circle very, very soon.

Sahith's recent surge to the 14th spot in the Official World Golf Rankings means we're not likely to see any sort of crazy discount in this rather beleaguered field, but there are enough high-end talents/course history buffs teeing it up this week for me to maintain hope that the opening number won't get too out of hand. I'm comfortable making my stand at any price above 20-1.

Si Woo Kim

Si Woo may not fit the quintessential bomber profile of a Jason Kokrak or Tony Finau, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in this field playing at a higher level from tee through green. Over his last 24 rounds, only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes in this field with his driving, chipping, and irons, and when this event was last played at Memorial Park 18 months ago, Kim's 8.8 strokes gained on approach was the highest mark we've seen in three years at this venue.

Si Woo showcased just how potent his game can be with a sixth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago -- recording the best putting week we've seen from the Korean International since the 2023 WM Open (4.8). Notably, both Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale feature similarly over-seeded surfaces to what we have on tap in Houston this week, which could reverse the historic struggles we've seen from Si Woo on these greens in his two fall appearances.

Although Si Woo has never been known as one of the Tour's most reliable entities, we have seen a propensity from him to get hot and stay hot through extended stretches of the season. In 2022, a torrid run of form to end the fall resulted in a victory in his very first start of the New Year (2023 Sony Open), and later last year, another extended run of elite ball-striking saw him come oh so close to victory on two separate occasions: coming one shot short of Jason Day at the AT&T Byron Nelson and two short of a playoff at Jack Nicklaus's Memorial Tournament.

From TPC Sawgrass to Muirfield Village, Riviera, and even Augusta National, Si Woo Kim has proven himself as a name to watch at any venue when his game is firing on all cylinders. The underlying stats indicate that win #4 could well be on the horizon for the mercurial Korean, and with his combination of reliability off-the-tee, prolific long-iron play, and creativity around the greens, Memorial Park sets up a lot better than you'd think for one of the shorter hitters in this field. I'm more than willing to ride hot hand in this beleaguered field, and would be comfortable at any price bordering on 40-1.

Kurt Kitayama

Kurt Kitayama sealed the win with a near-perfect putt under intense pressure. 💪 @apinv pic.twitter.com/be0dqwoTDz

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 5, 2023

In a field full of winless/unproven commodities, Kurt Kitayama's track record in big-time events (and on similarly driver/long-iron intensive courses), makes him an enticing commodity in the middle of this betting board. He's one of the few players in this field in recent history to best Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday in contention (2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational). Throughout his career, Kurt has routinely raised his baselines on some of the PGA Tour's longest layouts:

• Winner at 7,500-yard Bay Hill (aforementioned 2023 API)
• 2nd at 7,600-yard Congaree (2022 CJ Cup)
• 2nd at 7,300-yard Vidanta Vallarta (2022 Mexico Open)
• 2nd at 7,300-yard Renaissance Club (2022 Scottish Open)
• 4th at 7,400-yard Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship)
• 8th at 7,300-yard TPC Scottsdale (2024 WM Open)

The statistical profile fits this run of results, as over his last 50 rounds, Kurt ranks inside the top 25 in Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, and Long-Iron Proximity, and in his last start at TPC Sawgrass, Kitayama posted his best ball-striking week since the last May's PGA Championship (+6.0 Strokes Gained). The week-in, week-out consistency has left a lot to be desired throughout Kurt's PGA Tour career, but with six made cuts in his first seven starts, 2024 may well be the year he finds his footing in that respect. In any case, there are no questions regarding the upside of the three-time worldwide winner, and Houston's distance-intensive layout makes for another great spot to take a shot at an inflated outright number. I'll be looking for anything north of 60-1.

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