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Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Wells Fargo Championship (Round 1). The PGA Tour is in full swing, and PrizePicks has an extensive selection of props for us to take advantage of!
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This week, we're at Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. For the first time in its history, the Wells Fargo will be labeled as an "elevated event," on the PGA Tour. With that label comes a total purse of $20 million and 16 of the top 20 players in the world vying for the title in Charlotte. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, May 4.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Gary Woodland LESS than 71.5 Strokes
A 39th-place finish in Mexico wasn't exactly what Woodland fans were hoping for given his recent run of form, but the underlying stats will certainly inspire hope that the elite ceiling is still attainable for the 2019 U.S. Open Champion.
Woodland finished third in last week's field from tee-to-green, but 142nd in putting over the four days - his worst individual putting performance in over two years.
The good news when projecting Gary's prospects for this week in Charlotte is that there are quite a few similarities between Vidanta and Quail Hollow when mapping out the most important ball-striking splits: driving distance and long-iron play being the largest corollaries.
Woodland still rates out immaculately well in both categories (3rd in Driving Distance, 5th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Long-iron proximity), and he's had a sneakily good track record around Quail Hollow's green complexes (gaining strokes putting in 6 of 9 starts).
Simply put, Woodland's game is tailor-made for this type of venue, and he's striking the ball as well as he ever has. He's gone under this total in five of his last six rounds in Charlotte, and as long as the putter doesn't betray him completely, his tee-to-green prowess should be more than enough to carry him again.
Rickie Fowler MORE than Ben Griffin - Birdies or Better Matchup
Given his Chapel Hill roots, Ben Griffin should be quite popular amongst the Charlotte galleries this week. But the results have certainly cooled off for the former Tar Heel as of late, and despite the crowd support, I don't believe Quail Hollow is the best venue for the 26-year-old rookie to get things back on track.
Griffin rates outside the top 100 in SG: APP, long-iron proximity, and Birdie Chances Created over the last six months, and outside of the top 75 in Par 5 scoring and total driving. The only thing keeping him afloat over the last few months has been a world-class short game, but in a birdie or better matchup, I don't want to have to rely on chip-ins to add to my tally.
Fowler, on the other hand, comes into the 2023 Wells Fargo with some of the best ball-striking splits we've seen from him in years: rating out 3rd in SG: APP, 9th in Birdie Chances Created, and 21st in Total Driving over the last six months.
Rickie also outpaces Griffin in Par 5 scoring (23rd vs 78th), and has a much more extensive history putting on these lightning-fast greens: gaining strokes putting in seven of nine starts at Quail Hollow.
The 35-1 outright number is a bridge too far for me on Fowler this week, but that's not to say I don't have interest in other markets. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rickie rack up his fourth consecutive Top 15 on Tour this week, and he should be the clear favorite to outpace Griffin Thursday afternoon.
Tony Finau LESS than 11.5 Hole 16-17-18 Shots
The Green Mile is about as difficult of a closing stretch as you'll find on the PGA Tour - playing to a scoring average of +0.8, with each of the three holes carrying bogey or worse rates of 27, 26, and 35% respectively.
However, if there were one player that is best suited to tackle this 1200-yard behemoth, it would be none other than Tony Finau. Fresh off a win last week in which he gained 14.8 shots from tee-to-green, Finau possesses both the elite driving and long-iron play required on holes of 506, 190, and 494 yards.
Tony rates out 4th in scoring average on Par 4's over 500 yards, 2nd in GIR % from 200 yards-plus, and 3rd in overall bogey avoidance over his last 50 rounds. Over his last five trips into the Green Mile, Finau has come out without a scratch on four occasions and has played this stretch in an impressive two-over since 2017 (14 rounds).
With the way he's striking the ball (4th in total driving, 1st on approach), and the drastic improvements we've seen from Finau's short game, there's nobody in this field I'd rather have heading into Quail Hollow's most infamous stretch.
Other Recommendations
- Collin Morikawa MORE than 12.5 Greens in Regulation
- Jason Day MORE than Adam Hadwin - Birdies or Better Matchup
- Max Homa MORE than 70.0 Strokes
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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