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Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the RBC Heritage (Round 1). The PGA Tour is in full swing, and PrizePicks has an extensive selection of props for us to take advantage of!
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This week, we're at Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. For the first time in its history, the Heritage will be labeled as an "elevated event," on the PGA Tour. With that label comes a total purse of $20 million and 18 of the top 20 players in the world vying for the Tartan Jacket. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, April 13.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Shane Lowry MORE than 11.5 Greens in Regulation
It was quite surprising for me to see Shane Lowry's GIR line set in the same range as players like Sahith Theegala, Kurt Kitayama and Adam Scott (all of whom rank outside the top 50 in this field in GIR % in 2023).
Lowry, on the other hand, has been very proficient in creating birdie looks not only in 2023, but also historically around Harbour Town. Lowry ranks inside the Top 15 in GIRs Gained to the field in both a recent sample size of his last 24 rounds as well as over the course of his Harbour Town career.
He is one of just two other players that can boast the same credentials (Corey Conners and Patrick Cantlay being the others), yet his line is set in a tier below his two contemporaries.
Shane has hit at least 12 GIRs at Harbour Town in 9 of his last 14 rounds, and coming off of a T16 finish at the Masters in which he gained nearly eight shots to the field from tee-to-green, I have no doubts that Lowry can carry that momentum over at a venue he's had so much historical success at.
Sam Burns MORE than Taylor Pendrith - Birdies or Better Matchup
We've gotten burned recently in this market with Peter Malnati somehow making six birdies in Round One of the Valero to ruin our ticket that week, but I still maintain that there is value to be had in some of the more egregious Birdie or Better Matchups offered on PrizePicks.
Burns vs Pendrith seems to be the biggest outlier being offered this week, as not only does Sam come into this week on the back of a Match Play win (at another short, positional Pete Dye track), and a career-best finish at the Masters (T29), but his opponent in this matchup comes into the week in some truly dire form.
Pendrith ranks outside the top 100 in both Birdie or Better % and Birdie Chances Created inside 15 feet, and unfortunately for a player that a lot of us picked as a breakout performer in 2023, Pendrith has just one Top 40 finish in nine 2023 starts.
Burns is also the only one of the two with previous Harbour Town experience: finishing ninth here in 2019 and rating out 10th in Birdie or Better % over his 10 cumulative rounds. Sam has the recent form, the course history, and an elite tool (putter) that makes him an everpresent threat to take it deep. I see him as a massive favorite tomorrow morning against a struggling Pendrith.
Cameron Young MORE than Davis Riley - Birdies or Better Matchup
While longtime readers of mine will know just how much of a sucker I am for Davis Riley, a birdie or better matchup against Cameron Young is a bridge too far in even my biased view.
Outside of Jon Rahm, nobody on the PGA Tour has been a more prolific birdie maker than Cameron Young in 2023, and that's in spite of ranking 131st in SG: Putting for the year. With Paul Tesori on the bag and a new method of reading greens (AimPoint Express), Young has managed to gain over a stroke per round on the greens in his last two tournaments (Match Play and the Masters).
If these trends continue, things could get pretty ridiculous for the 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. He's long been considered one of the best ball-strikers on Tour, and this newfound confidence over the flat stick brings Young's ceiling to dizzying heights.
After finishing one shot out of a sudden-death playoff in 2022, everything seems to be lining up for Cam to make a serious run at this year's RBC Heritage. I'm about as overweight on him as I'll ever be on a golfer in a given week, and I'm still more than comfortable adding this prop to my weekly portfolio.
Other Recommendations
- Sungjae Im MORE than 9.5 Fairways Hit
- Viktor Hovland MORE than Seamus Power - Birdies or Better Matchup
- Ryan Fox MORE than 36.5 Holes Played
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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