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Today's PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship (Round 1) by Ian McNeill. Use his golf over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.
Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson (Round 1). The PGA Tour is in full swing, and PrizePicks has an extensive selection of props for us to take advantage of!
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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This week, we're at TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson! While most of golf's top names are gearing up for next week's PGA Championship, this tournament still means a great deal for many local Texans on Tour, as well as a multitude of hungry young stars looking for a breakthrough win. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, May 11.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Maverick McNealy LESS than 5.0 Birdies or Better
Something to watch out for when navigating these birdie or better markets is the fact that the easiest hole at Craig Ranch (the par five 12th), has been adjusted to a 492-yard par four for tournament play this week. This change takes away the biggest opportunity these players have historically had to make birdie, and effectively acts as a built-in hook against the over when projecting total birdies made.
This fact makes Maverick McNealy's line of 5.0 Birdies or Better look even more ridiculous, as McNealy ranks outside the top 70 in Birdie or Better %, and outside the top 125 in SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created and Proximity from 150+.
If you apply this year's scorecard to last year's, Maverick would have gone 0-2-2 on this line despite placing T32 on the week. He comes into 2023's iteration in much worse form from tee-to-green, and despite the flashy putting splits, there's absolutely no way he should be priced on the same line as Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, or course horse K.H. Lee.
Taylor Montgomery LESS than 12.5 Greens in Regulation
Another repercussion of the modified 12th is the loss of a free Green in Regulation for much of the field now that a mid/long-iron will likely be required to hit the 492-yard hole in two.
When you possess iron splits like Taylor Montgomery, you're going to need all the free GIRs you can get. Montgomery rates out dead last in GIR % and outside the top 125 in Proximity from 150 yards and beyond (where about 2/3s of approach shots will come from this week).
The elite putter scares me away from fading Montgomery in some of the Birdie or Better/Stroke markets, but if we're talking pure ball-striking, I'll gladly take the other side of the UNLV alum.
UPDATE: Recent wind projections have McKinney, Texas forecasted for sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range most of Thursday afternoon. Montgomery has not faired well in his short career in the wind, and I'm only further emboldened with this fade given the recent forecasts.
Tom Hoge LESS than 69.0 Strokes
As one of my favorite plays in the outright market, it's no surprise that Hoge finds his way onto my prop card as well. The TCU alum has hit the under on this prop in 5 of 6 rounds at TPC Craig Ranch, and despite a rough go of things in his last individual start at Hilton Head, Hoge seemed to get back into the swing of things alongside teammate Harris English at the Zurich Classic.
Hoge gained 7 shots between his approach shots and putting in New Orleans, and has a legitimate case as the best long-iron player in a field that includes Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tom Kim (#1 in SG: APP, Birdie Opportunities Gained, and Proximity from 200 yards-plus over his last 50 rounds).
We've seen these team events provide a springboard for Hoge in the past, as he finished 3rd in the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions immediately following his win with teammate Sahith Theegala in last fall's QBE Shootout. I think he's certainly got the game to ride the wave again here in Dallas.
Other Recommendations
- Matt Kuchar MORE than 4.5 Birdies or Better
- Tom Kim MORE than 14.0 Greens in Regulation
- Erik Van Rooyan MORE than 36.5 Holes Played
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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