Potential Hitter Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Samulski Custom Leaderboard

June 24, 2023

Eric looks for 2023 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts. Using a custom leaderboard of his favorite stats, Eric breaks down hitters may be fantasy baseball sleepers and trade targets.

When the summer months hit, it can sometimes be hard to think of where to look to find fantasy diamonds in the rough. Should we still be looking at year-to-year changes? Should we be using the last month's surface-level stats? Should we use Statcast x-stat leaderboards or the rolling windows?

Instead of doing any of that, I decided to have some fun and create a custom leaderboard of my own.

I took my favorite stats to look at when identifying hitters whose approach and talent I like and then I sorted for the last 30 days, which amounted to about 23-24 games played for most of the hitters. I didn't look at any actual performance stats beforehand because the point of the exercise was to see whose approach and contact profile I think is set up for success, and I didn't want to be impacted by surface-level stats.

Samulski's Hitting Leaders for Fantasy Baseball

The leaderboard is made up of five simple stats: HardHit%, Pull%, Flyball%, Zone Contact%, and O-Swing%.

The reason for those stats is also fairly simple for me. I like hard hit rate over barrel rate because barrels are predicated on certain launch angles and a hitter's launch angle can shift throughout the course of a long season, so I just wanted to see who was hitting the ball hard.

Generally, if you pull and lift the ball, you can do more damage, so I included those two stats, which also allowed me to use hardhit% instead of barrel rate so that I wasn't double counting launch angle. I also wanted to see who was consistently making a lot of contact in the zone and making good decisions by not chasing out of the zone, as I think those plate discipline decisions can put hitters in a better position for regular meaningful contact.

To create the leaderboard, I started with all players who had 10 at-bats over the last 30 days and then removed all players who didn't qualify for the top 100 among qualified hitters in any of those stats. That means that I deleted any hitter who didn't have a 40% hard-hit rate, 39% pull rate, 36% fly ball rate, 84% zone contact, and no greater than a 33% O-Swing%.

That left us with 37 hitters, but in this article, we're going to look at the top 25 hitters who qualified for my custom leaderboard. I'll paste the whole leaderboard below, and then dive into a few names underneath that I think might be sneaky waiver wire pickups or trade targets who you can buy low on based on public perception.

The hitters who didn't make the cut for the leaderboard based on games played could be players to monitor, so they were: Willie Calhoun, Tommy Pham, Gary Sanchez, Mark Canha, Ryan Jeffers, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Mervis, Evan Longoria, Billy McKinney, Miguel Amaya, Trevor Larnach, and Jorge Polanco.

All of these stats are as of Tuesday, June 20th

A few players I won't cover because you know they're really good. You likely can't trade for them, and you wouldn't want to trade them away but rest assured you have a good player on your roster. Those guys are Austin Riley, Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker, Francisco Lindor, Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr., Nolan Arenado, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Francisco Alvarez, and Daulton Varsho.

I think it's important to point out that Trout and Witt Jr. have been drawing a lot of heat for their recent performance and not coming close to their fantasy ceilings, but this leaderboard would indicate that they are still doing a good job in all of the areas that I believe are important for a hitter and better days should come.

I'm also not going to cover Alex Bregman in this article, but I think we can be comfortable with the fact that he is who we thought he was if we remove 2019 from the equation. He's a solid .280-.290 hitter who will get 20+ home runs and good counting stats in a strong lineup.

I also won't cover Christian Walker in-depth but just want to point out that he is perpetually underrated despite solid production, same goes for Brandon Nimmo, who has been a consistent and steady leadoff hitter for the Mets despite never having the speed that people wanted from him.

Tommy Edman remains basically the same hitter he's always been. He won't strike out a lot and can really run, but won't hit for much power and hits near the bottom of the Cardinals' lineup. However, he plays elite defense and can play multiple positions on the field, so I feel good about him retaining playing time if things get crowded in St. Louis; however, even with that, he may sit one or two games a week to help get all the bats in the lineup.

Lastly, Cavan Biggio is playing just three or four games a week for Toronto, so he's hard to roster; however, his presence on this list shocked me, but he is hitting .250 with four home runs and an .854 OPS over his last 20 games, so maybe there's something here if he can start to get more at-bats.

Matt McLain - SS, Cincinnati Reds

While Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand get all the love in prospect circles, McLain has been at least equal to his teammates so far this season. The 23-year-old hit .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A with 12 home runs and 10 steals before getting called up to the big leagues.

Since coming up, he has delivered, even if projections don't believe it. Most projection systems have him for a .240 or .250 average the rest of the way, but his inclusion on this list means that he hits the ball hard and doesn't often get himself out. He has one of the lowest fly ball rates on this list, but he also has 93rd-percentile sprint speed, so hitting the ball on the ground or on the line does help his batting average and is the reason he's always run high BABIPs in the minors. Yes, he won't keep up a .436 BABIP, but he has always had over a .300 BABIP, so I don't expect his average to fall below the .270 range this year.

He walked more in the minors, so I would expect him to start being even more patient as he gets comfortable in the majors and proves he can hit; however, the lack of stolen bases is a bit of a bummer. He had 10 in 38 games in Triple-A, but just three in 32 MLB games, so I hope he starts running more soon. The arrow is pointing firmly upward here.

Spencer Torkelson - 1B, Detroit Tigers

I was surprised that Torkelson appeared on this list because I know the results haven't been there for him. Even over the last 30 days, he's hitting just .212/.339/.394 with four home runs, 13 RBI, and a 27.4% strikeout rate.

However, he also has a 14.3% barrel rate, 48.6% HardHit rate, and 19.9-degree launch angle over that time, which continues this season-long tweaking of his swing that seems to be going on to help the former number one overall pick unlock his power.

When you see that kind of undulation, it's usually safe to assume that a player is working on finding a consistent swing plane. Yet, so far, the swing tweaks haven't really done much to impact Torkelson's performance.

Even if we just look at when his launch angle begins trending upwards (June 6th) until now, Torkelson has just a .218 average and .455 slugging percentage despite pulling the ball 50% of the time and hitting 52.6% fly balls. If I'm right about the stats I believe in, a hitter pulling and lifting the ball and hitting it as hard as Torkelson is should be getting better results. So what's up?

The issue could simply be that Comerica Park ranks dead last for right-handed pull power. So Torkelson is beginning to strike out more as he tries to hit for more pull-side power; yet, he plays in a park that will just suppress that power. That's not exactly a recipe for fantasy success.

Lane Thomas, OF, Washington Nationals

Lane Thomas is another player that seems perennially underrated. He had the second-highest pull rate on his leaderboard while also boasting a 90% zone contact rate over the last 30 days. That has led to a .291 average with five home runs, 13 RBI, and 19 runs scored. He's striking out just 23.4% of the time while batting leadoff for a feisty Nationals team. There's a very good chance Thomas ends the season with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases while hitting .280. You're not mad at that.

Mike Yastrzemski - OF, San Francisco Giants

Yaz wasn't given enough respect before the season. With his barrel rate, pull rate, and plate discipline, it always seemed like he was due for a bounceback after hitting .214 with 17 home runs last year. So far this season, we're seeing better swing decisions (fewer chases) and more pull power, which has led to 10 home runs and a .258 average in 54 games.

As you can see in the leaderboard above, Yastrzemski has the highest hard-hit rate of any player listed while also posting a 92% zone contact rate and the second-lowest O-swing% on the list. In other words, he's forcing pitchers to throw strikes, he's making tons of contact on those strikes, and that contact is hard contact. All of that sounds like music to my ears.

Despite the assumption that he's a reverse splits hitter, he's actually hitting .271 this year against right-handed pitching and .220 against lefties, so you don't really need to worry about platoon splits.

Triston Casas - 1B, Boston Red Sox

I've been keeping a close eye on Casas' performance lately not only as a Red Sox fan but as somebody who has Casas on a hell of a lot of fantasy teams. I believed in the raw power and the approach in the spring, but the results were simply not there early in the season. He seemed too passive and was fouling too many pitches straight back when he did decide to swing.

However, the quality of contact has been good for most of the season, so it seemed like a matter of time.

The results started to come in the middle of May. Over the last 30 days, Casas is hitting .275/.376/.450 with two home runs, nine RBI, and ten runs. He has also lowered his strikeout rate to 23.7% while posting a 14% walk rate.

We always knew the good swing decisions would be part of his profile, but it's also been nice to see him elevating the ball more of late. In May, Casas had a 32.7% fly ball rate. So far in June, that is up to 47.8%. Considering he's pulling the ball almost 50% of the time, the added lift will help him to get to that power more often. He also doesn't have egregious splits, so if the Red Sox start to let him hit more against lefties, we could see a second-half breakout.

Christopher Morel - OF, Chicago Cubs

At this point, we know the story of Christopher Morel. He has tantalizing power and speed but doesn't have the approach to allow him to get to that power consistently, which leads to high strikeout rates and prolonged cold streaks.

But maybe that's not the case. Morel is on here because his O-Swing% over the last 30 days is 28.5%, which is on the higher side for this list but an improvement on his 32% for the season and 33.2% mark from last year. It has also led to a dip in strikeout rate.

Morel still has a 16.3% SwStr% so don't expect him to keep a sub-20% strikeout rate, but this may be the sign of a young hitter who is learning to be a little more patient and cut down on the swing-and-miss a bit. When you combine that with the fact that his flyball rate is 47% this year after being 32.5% last year, you begin to see why Morel has been on such a power barrage since being called up, even despite going on one of his patented cold streaks.

I still believe Morel's SwStr% gives him the profile of a hitter who will continue to experience those cold streaks, but the new pull and lift in his approach will likely allow him to get to his power more consistently which will give him fantasy value even when he isn't swinging a truly hot bat. That could prevent him from yo-yo-ing on and off your roster with every cold streak.

Taylor Ward - OF, Los Angeles Angels

Taylor Ward was the talk of fantasy baseball Twitter early in the season after hitting .208 over the first month with three home runs. However, he's actually been pretty solid for most of the season. From May 1st on, he's hitting .268/.307/.443 with six home runs, 25 runs scored, 17 RBI, and two stolen bases while striking out just 20.4% of the time across 39 games. That's not lighting the world on fire, but it's certainly usable in deeper formats.

One clear improvement of late has been with his O-swing%. This season, Ward has a 28.4% O-Swing%, which is way up from his 23.6% mark last year. However, over the last 30 days, he's posted a 22.2% mark, which means he was up over 30% for the season before re-establishing his feel of the strike zone.

He's still not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year, but he is starting to lift it more, which has led to a .492 slugging percentage so far in June after just a .409 mark in May and a .311 mark in April. That should help him push towards the 20-home run plateau that he reached last year.

What's interesting to me is that Ward's x-stats from last year suggest that he should have hit .268 with 20 home runs. At the end of the 2023 season, I think that might be exactly what you get from the Angels' outfielder. You may have drafted him expecting him to take a leap forward, but the 2022 version of Taylor Ward still deserves to be on your team.

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