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Baseball is coming, so it is time for another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.
Today, we'll look at third basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.
Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning January into February, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection
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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win
Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a data set that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, 7) BA.
We all know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context if necessary. EDV is not some definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it helps sharpen the tools in your kit on draft day. Now, let's move along.
Top Third Base Tiers
This is a tough scene. You don’t need hard numbers to know the hot corner is a troublesome spot. Unlike first base, third can be a bloodbath and most feel uncomfortable without one of the top six in their uniform.
Jose Ramirez is the only one of them in the green by the book, but the thumb injury’s aftershocks have some shaking. He suffered a torn UCL on June 17, through which he had a .305/.397/.642 slash line with 16 homers and 11 steals (262 PAs). He also had 39 walks to 20 strikeouts.
Following the injury, he turned 423 PAs into 13 homers and nine swipes alongside a .264/.329/.437 line. That .766 OPS ranked 16th out of 32 third-baggers with at least 250 PAs in the same window – not great. Do you think the surgery gets JoRam back to 100% at 30 years old? Or, as Jeff Zimmerman put it, do you think he can undo any bad habits learned by playing through the injury?
He was league average after the thumb injury.
Will the 30-year-old hit go back to his old level? My work on playing through injuries says no. He probably got some bad habits he needs to work out.
Will he keep stealing or protect his thumb?
Too many questions to go 1.1 for me.
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) February 1, 2023
After that, Manny Machado is a consistent force being bumped up towards the 1-2 turn in drafts. Some of that is his steady track record but a key piece is that fear of missing out at 3B. Market forces at work!
Austin Riley is the next-best buy thanks to a better average than the HR Cohort EDV demands around the late second round. Rafael Devers also has an injury-marred ‘22 to put behind him, but Fenway Park is generous and he’s performed well with a questionable supporting cast before.
Mid-Round Third Base Tier
Gunnar Henderson will suffer on the projections sheet as all rookies do, but he’s 10 HR+SB behind the EDV and almost 20 R+RBI. Pitcher-happy Camden won’t help him stave off growing pains. You can project growth but this is a leap at a thin position. This tweet from mid-January still holds fairly true regarding ADP (but may help explain why McMahon has crept up toward ~200).
Interesting find when looking at @DerekCarty ’s BAT X projections:
Gunnar Henderson: 139 g, 15 HRs, 9 SBs, 71 r, 61 RBI, 246/324/402
NFBC ADP since 12/1: 𝟗𝟏𝐬𝐭
Ryan McMahon: 138 g, 20 HRs, 6 SBs, 73 r, 70 RBI, 246/326/422
NFBC ADP since 12/1: 𝟐𝟐𝟔𝐭𝐡#FantasyBaseball
— Jake Floriolli (@Jflo_22) January 12, 2023
Judging the rest of the field by these inflation conditions, Max Muncy, Eugenio Suarez, and Matt Chapman are all within shouting distance of their EDV. A healthy Muncy can meet the bar if you’re willing to eat that risk. Suarez buys you some more power at the expense of average. Chapman typically leaves you hurting on average but he did hit over .300 with no shift on in ‘22, per Fangraphs. If you waited at 3B then I'd like to snag one of these bats.
Late-Round Third Base Tier
I’ll throw up flags for Josh Rojas and Ryan McMahon, who are rare buys in the later rounds. McMahon hit an extra gear last August, bopping 12 home runs with a .822 OPS in those final two months. And Rojas gained confidence down the stretch as well, nearly doubling his steals after the All-Star break in the same amount of time. He and Ke'Bryan Hayes can provide speed for those who emphasized power early. Of course, Rojas is a similar profile over 30 picks later.
Diving further brings you to the last 3B who qualifies in an EDV cohort: Justin Turner. His ability to hit around .280 or higher should continue shining with the Green Monster to pepper. The 38-year-old is a fly-ball bat, sitting around 40-45% since 2016. Turner's value also took a hit thanks to a cold April, which he attributed to poor positioning in the box. From May 10 on, Turner delivered a .306/.380/.488 slash line with 32 doubles and 12 home runs. I'm a big fan at his ADP and so is the EDV.
Justin Turner’s only homer at Fenway Park.
Back in 2019 against Chris Sale. He added 2 doubles later in the game.
His 2022 spray chart points to him becoming good friends with the Monster. pic.twitter.com/xv9jIKPyhp
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) December 19, 2022
Top Third Base vs. EDV - Full Data Table
We've got players, the cohort they qualify for (if applicable), their HR+SB projection against what EDV demands, same with their R+RBI, a similar batting average score, and notes.
| Player | ADP | Cohort | HR+SB v. EDV |
R+RBI v. EDV |
AVG | Notes |
| Jose Ramirez | 3.04 | HR+SB | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | 60 games pre-thumb injury: 16 HR, 11 SB, .305 AVG; 30/30 possible |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 9.66 | HR+SB | 7 | -24 | -0.8 | Beats EDV at more projectable HR+SB, 200 R+RBI demand is tough |
| Manny Machado | 14.07 | BA+HR+SB | -8.4 | 1.9 | -3 | Only member of triple-threat cohort per EDV, strong foundation piece |
| Rafael Devers | 20.45 | BA+HR | 1.5 | -6.7 | -3.8 | Hamstring inj. sapped his 2nd half after 22 HR, .324 AVG pre-ASB |
| Austin Riley | 20.46 | HR | -6.7 | -7 | 2.8 | Highest HR-only cohort but power price palatable given 3B market |
| Nolan Arenado | 31.75 | HR | -5.9 | -13.8 | 2.3 | Bankable 30 HR, 180 R+RBI but unlikely to yield profits. Last top 3B |
| Alex Bregman | 71.83 | HR | -6.5 | 14 | 2.7 | 155 games in '22 re-established health, rising price w/ 3B scarcity |
| Gunnar Henderson | 90.97 | HR+SB | -8.2 | -19.9 | -1.2 | Top-100 ADP for rookies are tough, hitting third would be ideal |
| Max Muncy | 131.17 | HR | -4.7 | 1 | -3 | Elbow injury sunk most of '22, exit velocity rose after mid-Aug. adjustment |
| Jose Miranda | 147.43 | Another case of no cohort but 3B eligible is big in 2023 | ||||
| Eugenio Suarez | 152.64 | HR | -1.7 | 14.6 | -3.6 | A buy for pop if your AVG isn't already in the red |
| Matt Chapman | 155.66 | HR | -3.2 | 1.5 | -5.9 | Ditto, but Suarez is preferred |
| Ty France | 170.43 | .873 OPS pre-collision, .682 OPS post-collision. You in? | ||||
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 173.27 | SB | -4.4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | Got back to 210 lbs for durability, one of the last "comfy" options |
| Alec Bohm | 179.8 | Bulked a bit, will plus swing yield 25+ HRs? | ||||
| Brandon Drury | 184.1 | How much magic was tied to GABP? .724 OPS post-trade | ||||
| Josh Rojas | 208.8 | SB | 3.7 | 11.7 | 2.9 | Nice, versatile speed bat w/ 10-12 HR juice and 3B eligibility |
| Ryan McMahon | 210.79 | .827 OPS at Coors, .645 away; can you juggle that? | ||||
| Josh Jung | 219.97 | Healthy offseason to regain comfortable swing could launch him | ||||
| Jordan Walker | 228.68 | Buzzy, 5-category potential; plenty of ST reps w/ many STL bats at WBC? | ||||
| Luis Urias | 232.83 | 2B/3B/SS is nice, but low AVG and SB output limits appeal | ||||
| Anthony Rendon | 241.81 | Healthy wrist may deserve BA cohort, cleanup for LAA has value | ||||
| Justin Turner | 243.33 | BA | 4.6 | 36.9 | -5.2 | Fixed bad timing and from May 10 on, .868 OPS, 44 XBH after that |
| DJ LeMahieu | 245.71 | N/A | Hard to lean on as consistent starter if NYY protects foot w/ depth | |||
| Christopher Morel | 249.83 | SB | 0.8 | -0.4 | -1 | Has tools, but inconsistency will relegate him to unreliable superutility slot |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 255.52 | Prepping as SD 2B, offers little bit of everything but not enough for cohort |
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