Overvalued Closers and Relief Pitchers - Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates (2026)

March 23, 2026

Andy's overvalued closers and relief pitchers who are potential fantasy baseball busts based on ADP. These regression candidates carry risk at their current ADP.

Finding elite closers can provide your team with a major boost in standard leagues. Not only will you find a potential pitcher with 30+ save upside, but they will also deliver elite strikeout totals with high-end ratios.

However, not all closers are priced correctly. In this piece, I will spotlight some overvalued closers based on current NFBC ADP (from March 1 through March 20) and suggest alternative options at a similar price that managers should target instead.

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Carlos Estevez, Kansas City Royals

ADP - 129

Carlos Estevez was one of the best value picks in drafts last season, especially when looking at the closer position. The 33-year-old tallied an MLB-leading 42 saves while locking down the ninth inning in Kansas City. In addition to his high save count, Estevez was very effective and delivered elite ratios.

Across 66 innings, the right-hander would hold a strong 2.45 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. While he only struck out 54 hitters (slightly below average 20.1% rate), Estevez's high save count and elite ratios would make him a fantasy staple.

However, managers should not be looking at his base statistics when calling his name on draft day, as his underlying metrics suggest he could face major regression in 2026.

The 33-year-old generated a high 3.69 xERA with a .228 xBA, both of which suggest his ratios should take a hit, especially his ERA. Additionally, his low 23.0% chase rate (third percentile) and 19.0% whiff rate (eighth percentile) may even limit his strikeout totals even further.

Estevez also struggled to keep the ball on the ground as his low 25.4% ground-ball rate placed him in the first percentile among all qualified pitchers. A pitcher that allows loud contact (10.6% barrel rate) and does not keep the ball on the ground is a recipe for disaster.

His No. 1 pitch, his fastball (53.5% usage), is due for major regression as it held a .288 wOBA on the surface but a hefty .323 xwOBA under the hood. His slider (30.9% usage) carried a .211 wOBA, nearly 100 points lower than the .314 xwOBA.

Additionally, the Royals moved in the fences at Kauffman Stadium this offseason, which could hurt this flyball pitcher even more.

If that wasn't enough to convince you, Estevez's velocity has been down this spring by a wide margin. While reports claim he is slowly building up, Estevez's fastball has averaged around 86-89 mph, a dramatic drop from the 95.9 mph mark it sat at last summer.

While Estevez does not face major competition in this bullpen, outside of Matt Strahm (who has only 15 career saves to his name), he is best to fade at this price. He should see all the save opportunities (at least early on), but if these struggles start to show, he could fall into a committee.

Estevez is a safe bet for 20 saves, but could see his ERA push into the high 3.00s, making him a massive landmine at cost.

Emilio Pagan, Cincinnati Reds

ADP - 135

The other mid-to-late round relief pitcher that smashed all expectations in 2025 was Cincinnati's Emilio Pagan. Pagan emerged as the leader of the bullpen and would turn in a career season at age 34. Across 68 2/3 innings, Pagan would tally 32 saves (the second-most in the National League) and hold a 2.88 ERA with a neat 0.92 WHIP.

He would strike out hitters at a strong 30.0% rate, placing him in the 89th percentile among qualified hitters. Under the hood, he generated a strong 2.89 xERA with a .181 xBA, placing him in the 99th percentile among pitchers.

However, although Pagan was very effective, managers should expect him to regress in 2026.

The 34-year-old struggled to keep the ball out of the air, which could drive much of his regression, especially when pitching at Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks. His low 29.1% ground-ball rate placed him in the third percentile among qualified hitters. Additionally, Pagan's 9.1% barrel rate (36th percentile).

A flyball-heavy pitcher who allows hard contact is not a good combination, especially when pitching in a hitter's park.

Also, Pagan's career trajectory suggests that his dominance in 2025 was a massive outlier. In 2024, Pagan would post a much higher 4.50 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. While he was sharp in 2023 (2.99 ERA/0.95 WHIP), he struggled in 2022, posting a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP.

While he should maintain 20+ save upside penciled in as the clear ninth-inning option in Cincinnati, managers expecting another sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP should temper expectations significantly.

Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 165

While Trevor Megill is going a few rounds after Estevez and Pagan in the current ADP, he should still be avoided at a cost. Megill operated as the primary ninth-inning option for the NL Central Champions last summer, tallying 30 saves with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP across 47 innings of work.

The right-hander would tally 60 punchouts, striking out hitters at an elite 31.3% rate. His high 33.7% chase rate and 31.4% whiff rate would support his strikeout totals.

However, the remainder of his price is a bit concerning heading into 2026. Megill posted a 3.23 xERA, slightly below average, suggesting his 2.49 ERA was quite lucky. He also generated a modest 7.8% barrel rate and 39.1% hard-hit rate, both of which were just below the average marks, and do not support his elite ERA.

Megill also dealt with an elbow injury for most of the second half and received a PRP injection in the offseason to assist with soreness in his right forearm. While Megill has taken the mound this spring without much concern, he has a lengthy injury history, as he has yet to hit the 50-inning mark over his five-year MLB career.

Additionally, the Brewers also possess one of the game's most elite setup options, Abner Uribe waiting in the wings. Uribe held a sparkling 1.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP across 75 1/3 innings. He tallied seven saves with 38 holds. Two of these saves came in Uribe's final two appearances of the season and was called on when Megill was active.

With a capable option behind him and a lengthy track record of injuries, Megill is a risky selection at a price. If he were to struggle early in the season, the Brewers may not wait long to turn to Uribe. While Megill is a fine selection in deeper formats where volume is key (especially for saves), managers in shallower leagues should avoid this landmine in drafts and instead pivot to Kenley Jansen or Griffin Jax, who share a similar ADP.

Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox

ADP - 72

The other reliever I am opting to avoid is from the top group of the position. Aroldis Chapman turned back the clock in his age-38 season and was one of the most valuable players at the position. Across 61 1/3 innings during his first stint in the Red Sox, Chapman would hold an incredible 1.17 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP.

He struck out 85 hitters (37.3% rate) while allowing walks at a low 6.6% rate, placing him in the 74th percentile among qualified pitchers. His 2.11 xERA and .175 xBA placed him in the 99th percentile or higher, and his strong 5.5% barrel rate placed him in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers.

While nothing in his profile suggests any of his results were a fluke, he does raise some concern given his age and previous career production. From 2022 through 2024, the hard-throwing left-hander would hold a much higher 3.68 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP.

During this three-year stretch, Chapman held an overall 15.5% walk rate, which placed him among the league's worst pitchers. While the Red Sox may have helped him turn the corner from a control standpoint, managers should not expect his command to remain this elite in 2026.

The Red Sox had him slightly raise his four-seamer and sinker usage and drastically lower his slider usage, which helped him find the strike zone at a much higher rate.

However, managers will have to pay a high cost to see if this tweak is sustainable. History suggests his walk rate will creep back into the double-digits, which would make him a major bust at this ADP. Sitting at the same ADP as Devin Williams and David Bednar, and several rounds ahead of Daniel Palencia and Ryan Helsley, managers should pivot elsewhere in 2026.

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