NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 4)

October 2, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 4 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

You probably think I'm pulling your leg, but this is by far the juiciest props slate we have had this season so far. It's my biggest card of the year, that's for sure, and I'm anxious to give out some of my favorite prop bets to you, my friends, so we can all cash them this weekend. The more data we have as the season goes along, the more confident we can feel about our bets!

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 4 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Bucky Irving OVER 56.5 rushing yards (52%)

We all witnessed what Bijan Robinson did to the Packers defense last Thursday night; it was quite the spectacle.

Green Bay allowed nearly 200 yards to Robinson and was thoroughly dominated in the trenches, while also showing poor tackling and pursuit angles all night.

Enter Bucky Irving, a back who is both elusive and can break tackles, too. Tampa is starting a quarterback with no NFL experience this week, and will surely lean on Bucky and the run game at home in this one.

Despite concerns about Kenneth Gainwell eating into his workload, Irving has handled 17 and 15 carries the last two weeks. If he sees that many touches again, I think he'll sail over this number in this matchup.

Kyren Williams OVER 59.5 rushing yards (5o%)

Another week, another "way too low" rushing prop for Kyren Williams that we're going to hammer the over on!

Williams saw his biggest share of the carries last week, logging 15 totes for 88 yards. Blake Corum isn't going anywhere, but in games that are competitive, it's clear that Williams is more likely to take on a bigger role.

The Eagles have allowed 63 or more yards to opposing RB1s in each of the first three weeks as teams have attacked them with the running game as one way to neutralize their pass rush and elite secondary.

Williams has gone 20-94, 19-106, and 16-72 in his last three games against Philly. I think he'll be fed early and often in this one. The Rams have one of the most effective rushing attacks in football, and I expect them to find success against this Eagles front this week, too.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive $25 in trade credits when you deposit $10.

You also get a FREE YEAR of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Darren Waller OVER 29.5 receiving yards (53%)

Is this the best DvP spot of the year or what? The Lions have been eviscerated by opposing tight ends this year! Just look at these performances in the first three weeks.

• Juwan Johnson: 3-54-1
• Noah Fant: 4-33-1
• Dalton Kincaid: 7-95-1
• Jeremy Ruckert: 5-39-1
• Kenyon Sadiq: 7-105-1

They have been literally twice as bad as the next-worst team in the league against the position!

Meanwhile, Waller is slowly earning a bigger role in the Panthers' passing attack. He caught five of eight targets last week for 51 yards. He's now at 83% route participation on the season, so while he's not playing all the snaps, he is running routes and earning targets when on the field.

This is such a low bar for a player of his talent. He could crush this with a few catches, so consider laddering him up a few rungs to profit off a big day. The total is 50.5 in this game, and we know the Lions are going to score a bunch of points, so expect the Panthers to have to throw it a ton to keep up.

Matthew Golden OVER 59.5 receiving yards (51%)

Matthew Golden's receiving prop is the gift that keeps giving! He's gone over his yardage prop each week this season and is coming off his first 100-yard game as a pro.

!!!!!!!

📺: Prime Video pic.twitter.com/oI3aYEVGgB

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 25, 2026

He's putting on a clinic as a route runner, showing vast improvement over his rookie campaign. With Jayden Reed out and the Packers' running game being dead in the water, I expect Jordan Love to look to Golden and Christian Watson all game long to keep this Green Bay offense moving.

His big-play ability down the field has been on display, too, and he could break off a big chunk of this yardage in just one catch.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (37%)

We have a perfect storm here for the young Indianapolis tight end in the early morning London game.

He's seen his overall target share increase for three straight weeks as the Colts attempt to fill the void left behind by Alec Pierce's absence. He caught 9 of 10 targets last week and had a 29% target share.

Warren has a 25% red zone target rate through his first three games, catching a TD pass in two of three games. He's facing a Washington defense that has surrendered the most receiving TDs to opposing tight ends (4), allowing two to Dallas Goedert in Week 1 and another two to Jake Ferguson in Week 2.

George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (38%)

Kittle was brought along slowly by the Niners at first, but he was fully unleashed last week, catching six of seven targets for 82 yards and two scores.

GEORGE KITTLE'S SECOND TD OF THE GAME@AZvsSF on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/HAREBDDTlP

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026

His overall metrics still lag behind a bit, but mainly because his snaps were limited in the first few games. But he's been really efficient with his looks, and Brock Purdy clearly loves having his big, reliable target back.

Last week, Tyler Higbee went 8-62-1 against this Denver defense, which also surrendered a 3-71 line to Travis Kelce in Week 1.

The Niners offense has been unstoppable this year. If they're implied to score four touchdowns, I like Kittle to nab at least one of those, especially with San Francisco having a 55% red zone pass rate.

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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