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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 18th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
There are nine games on Monday's slate, so look for high-scoring in the Nets-Bucks and Timberwolves-Hawks contests. Be ready for updates in the morning since the games are going to start earlier than usual, but that doesn't mean there will be any shortage of betting action throughout the day.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. With players still adapting to their new teams or in some cases returning from injury, be sure to know the lineups and who is playing in each specific game. Let's also take the time to wish Caris Levert a quick recovery and that he will continue to have a long, distinguished career.
You can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions.
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ORL @ NYK
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 23.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 21.5 Points
The Knicks played their best game of the season Sunday afternoon against the Celtics and Julius Randle has had multiple big nights on the second night of back-to-backs already this season. Granted, most of those performances were against bad defenses, but the Magic are lacking most of their top defenders, especially a paint presence outside of Vucevic and Khem Birch. Randle has upside tonight despite it not looking likely that the Knicks will repeat their efficiency from Sunday.
As for Vucevic' upside, even if Orlando was at full strength, he's still their best player. He is going to get touches and no matter how good the defense is, Vucevic just needs to have a decent game for him to hit a number like 24.
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MIN @ ATL
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 28.5 Points - D'Angelo Russell (MIN) MORE 23.5 Points
If you wait closer to game time, you might get lucky and Trae Young's point total should drop just enough to make this double-over bet feel even safer. With both defenses playing terribly, it's easy to take the best players on each team. Russell is going to see extra usage while Karl-Anthony Towns, unfortunately, continues to miss time, so until these teams really get their act together, there is no reason to fade the heavy hitters.
Young is averaging 18-points per game this last week and that is including two 26-point outings. The four-point game is an outlier, but this season, Young hasn't had a solid shooting performance since opening night, so be wary.
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SAS @ POR
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 30.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (TOR) LESS 20.5
Choosing the right night when Damian Lillard goes off is going to gray some hairs, and playing against the Spurs makes it seem like the only way that happens is if no other Trail Blazers can produce. Portland is going to have to play at a slower pace that will work in favor of C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, so rather than assuming Lillard will flop, this should open up the floor for him to take total control.
The Spurs rely on their ball movement, so when DeMar DeRozan plays his normal amount of minutes, it means the rest of the team is benefitting. Since the Trail Blazers aren't able to defend very well, even if DeRozan is able to get to his spots, so will other San Antonio players like Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Patty Mills, and Rudy Gay. The Spurs don't have a big rotation, but they have plenty of options on offense.
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PHO @ MEM
Devin Booker (PHO) LESS 24.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 23.5
The Grizzlies have desperately needed offense and in Ja Morant's first game back he scored 17-points on 14 shots, playing 30 minutes. Not a great game, but promising for anyone that expects him to get back to his high-scoring nights. 24-points is a significant jump for Morant, but it's a reachable number for how much he controls the offense.
Even with all of Phoenix having upside against the Grizzlies defense, Devin Booker and Chris Paul are the two consistent spots. Booker has been playing well all season, and now that his point total is slightly lower than it has been for previous games, it's time to hit the over without hesitation.
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DAL @ TOR
Luka Doncic (DAL) LESS 30.5 Points - Fred Vanvleet (TOR) LESS 19.5
Luka Doncic posted one of the biggest stat-lines in recent memory, not to mention he scored 36-points on 30 shots. If he keeps up at that pace, even if he doesn't shoot efficiently, he is going to score 30 against the Raptors with ease. Kristaps Porzingis returning has opened the floor for him, although it hasn't helped the Mavericks in terms of winning. If Dallas can stay in this lower-tier of teams then Doncic is set for a big night, every night, especially with a usage percent that is scraping at 40%.
Fred VanVleet, on the other hand, has had his struggles, especially the past week. He hit double-digit assists for the first time since last season, so even though he is clearly in a slump, he is still able to produce and help his teammates. His point-total is low although he is still taking shots at the same rate.
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HOU @ CHI
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 28.5 Points - Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 26.5
Zach LaVine posted 10-points and 10-assists against the Mavericks Sunday, and the Bulls cruised to a win. The Rockets aren't much better defensively, but they do have players capable of filling up the box score. Both Christian Wood and LaVine have upside with so few players able to contribute in this game.
LaVine is having one of the best stretches out of any player we've seen and it should continue against the Rockets defense. For Wood, there is no way the Bulls can contain a properly run pick-and-roll, especially if the roller is going to consistently be someone like Wood that can't attack from every level. Once Victor Oladipo joins the rotation, Wood's upside increases drastically.
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