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John's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 6 of 2025. Are the breakout performances from Rico Dowdle, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Sam Darnold legit or flukes?
Among the most surprising big performances for fantasy football in Week 5 of NFL action were those of Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, Washington Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.
All three scored over 25.0 PPR fantasy points, easily having their best games of the season and helping propel their offenses to have nice days in the fifth week of NFL games. While all deserve credit for their production, it's worth examining if their games were flukes.
We've already seen Tre Tucker, Woody Marks, and Wan'Dale Robinson have huge games followed by big disappointments. Lighting up the stat sheet one week doesn't mean a player is absolutely set to have a great season. So, were the performances of these players legit or flukes? Let's dive in!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
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Was Rico Dowdle's Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
Dowdle's absolute detonation in Week 5 is a very interesting subject to dive into. He took 23 carries for a season-high (yes, the most this year in the NFL) 206 rushing yards, averaging nearly nine yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 28 yards.
Dowdle easily bested his previous career-high of 149 rushing yards. Interestingly, he rushed for 1,079 yards last season -- with how much that performance flew under the radar, you'd have thought he wasn't quite that good. And he had four games with 100 or more rushing yards in 2024. All four of those came in the final six games of the year.
a few Rico Dowdle touches but the plays get progressively better pic.twitter.com/blcRbdBeup
— Blande (@JustBlande) October 7, 2025
Dowdle's dominant performance simply can't be ignored. There are a lot of reasons to think that even though the Dolphins have one of the NFL's worst defenses, Dowdle has earned himself a bigger role moving forward. And it's possible he could even take the RB1 job away from Chuba Hubbard (calf), who's dealing with a calf issue.
Diving into the advanced stats, there are some alarming red flags Hubbard has displayed so far. He's forced zero missed tackles on rushes this season, which easily ranks last in the NFL. He's the only RB who has handled 25 or more rushes and has yet to make a defender miss.
Least elusive running backs in the NFL, min. 25 rushes:
43. Saquon Barkley (0.05 Missed Tackles per Rush)
44. Antonio Gibson* (0.04 MTF/Att) (Injured)
45. Kareem Hunt (0.03 MTF/Att)
...
46. Chuba Hubbard (0 Forced Missed Tackles this year)Rico Dowdle ranks 7th (0.25 MTF/Att)
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) October 6, 2025
I'm not saying it will happen, but there's a chance that Hubbard could be held out for a bit longer to make sure he's absolutely 100 percent healthy, and Dowdle could take the reins and never let go. In a plus matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, and a revenge game for him -- he played for them last season and was let go -- you should start him.
Hubbard is also potentially the worst pass-catching running back in the NFL. Here's an interesting stat -- of all players since 1992, Hubbard in 2024 ranked dead-last in yards per target. He was literally the most inefficient receiver in the history of tracking yards per target.
Panthers head coach Dave Canales has engineered one of the most valuable running back roles in all of fantasy football. He helped RB Rachaad White finish as the RB4 overall in PPR fantasy scoring in 2023 despite being very inefficient. And he prefers a workhorse. Dowdle seems to be more elusive and is clearly the better pass-catcher.
As if Rico Dowdle didn’t do enough by rushing for 200+ yards for the #Panthers - gotta give him flowers for his effort getting to and making the tackle after BY9 threw the INT
That man was all business on Sunday pic.twitter.com/oSk822APED
— Ricky Raines (@rickyboboddy) October 6, 2025
Dowdle showed maximum effort in this game, and it was a big statement for him. He made a case to get more work in his backfield, and he should be rewarded for it. We'll see what happens, but it's hard to call his game a fluke. With Hubbard not fully healthy, he should be locked into starting lineups.
Week 6 Outlook: Start in All Leagues
Was Jacory Croskey-Merritt's Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
Croskey-Merritt, also known as "Bill," scored 27.0 PPR fantasy points in his team's Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. He carried the ball 14 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over 7.9 yards per carry, and caught two passes for 39 yards.
He also lost a fumble, but that didn't seem to affect his usage. He still got work after the turnover, and it appears that he's solidly taken over his team's backfield. JCM's great game doesn't feel like much of a fluke to me. Even if he doesn't have quite as incredible efficiency moving forward, the competition in that backfield is minimal.
Bill Croskey-Merritt keeps getting yards
WASvsLAC on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/j0gXwwNO6n
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
He's clearly better than RBs Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr., and he's in a great offensive environment -- the Washington Commanders have an excellent offense. They have simply lacked a good running back until now. Brian Robinson Jr., the team's starter last season, was never highly productive.
Croskey-Merritt also has a nice, juicy schedule coming up. He'll face the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys in the next two weeks, both very vulnerable defenses. The Bears, in particular, have been gashed by running backs this season.
JCM is a must-start in all leagues. If you weren't able to get him onto your rosters before last week, that's unfortunate because his price has gone up significantly in all leagues. And he has the added safety of being in a great offense for scoring production.
Week 6 Outlook: Start in All Leagues
Was Sam Darnold's Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
Darnold had a nice game in Week 5. It was easily his best of the season, as he threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns to just one interception. His 28.6 PPR fantasy points were the second-highest of any of his games in the past two years -- he had a 30+ point performance last season.
In a shootout against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Darnold bested his season-high pass TD and pass yard numbers in a game, and looked quite impressive doing so. When not under pressure, Darnold is one of the league's most accurate quarterbacks and has been one of its best passers.
Excluding turnovers, Sam Darnold leads the league with 0.51 EPA per play and a 61% success rate on the 11th fewest snaps (147). To be doing that with the 3rd most air yards per attempt is Stafford-Puka levels of efficiency. pic.twitter.com/7XxPTu6E0h
— Seahawk Nerd (@SeahawkNerd) October 7, 2025
The big turnaround for Seattle is due in part to Darnold's play, but it's hard not to think that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has something to do with it. He showcased his abilities in the New Orleans Saints' massive production through two games last season before injuries basically ruined their offensive line.
Kubiak's schemes have led to ridiculous efficiency for wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and helped Darnold reach new heights as a QB. Darnold played very poorly when he wasn't under the tutelage of a great OC -- he was basically irrelevant as a passer in seasons with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers.
Among the reasons the Seahawks saw Sam Darnold as a strong fit in Klint Kubiak's offense, with all its designed rollouts, was his ability to throw accurately on the run -- even while moving to his left.
His touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba yesterday was another example. pic.twitter.com/LzKeZEwto6
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) September 22, 2025
It's hard to say Darnold's work was a fluke. The Buccaneers do have a poor pass defense, so that helped, and he doesn't have a ton of rushing upside. But his putting up low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 numbers for the rest of the year wouldn't surprise me. He's not an elite fantasy QB, but he should be serviceable.
Week 6 Outlook: Start in 14+ Team/2QB Leagues
Who Should I Start Tool
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Popular Week 6 Searches - Start/Sit Player Comparisons
Need a replacement? Below are some popular Week 6 searches and comparisons from our 'Who To Start' tool for Rico Dowdle, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Sam Darnold compared to others:
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