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Hello everyone once again! We head west to Kansas City, Kansas for the AdventHealth 400 this week and the 13th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Denny Hamlin Over 45.5 Points. This is high-risk only because of how few laps he may or may not lead. Starting from the pole could be somewhat of a boost and that makes this pick intriguing. The problem is bridging previous results with the Next-Gen car. One can say that every week. The Goodyear tire issues aside, Hamlin could very well enjoy his time at Charlotte this week with another top-ten result. If he sets just enough fast laps and laps led, that may put him right around his prop number on Sunday. Going slightly over is not outrageous.
Kyle Larson Under 71.5 Points. The reason is academic. Honestly, Larson will roar up the field but a tire blowout once has us a little concerned. Consider the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver can drive the hell out of a car - literally. There lies the problem sometimes. Larson could be a victim of a tire blowout again or worse. Charlotte is a 400 lap race with three phases. Keep that in mind too. There is the race in the sun, the race in the twilight, and the race with the stars. That third phase was where the No. 5 car excelled at particularly well. However, the racer did below him as well and this time may have fewer obstacles. Take the under here.
Chase Elliott Over 45.5 Points. This is one of the more fun numbers to look at on Sunday. Elliott is fast here and has the best average finish by a good margin at 2.3. That comes from a second, first, and second in his past three appearances. While Elliott has not led a ton of laps considering track position, that was due to an assortment of issues. Those ranged from penalties to poor pit strategy, and more. This time around, the No. 9 car even starts 13th which allows for place differential. There is plenty of time to move up, lead laps, set fastest laps, etc. The Hendricks cars will figure prominent again on Sunday. Take the over.
William Byron Under 37.5 Points. The William Byron story is interesting. He has consistently finished outside the top ten since early April. Remember all those consistent finishes last year which paved his way to a breakout season. The opposite is kind of happening now. Byron did have a very fast car in qualifying (5th) but can he sustain that position? That is the concern and lately, the Hendrick Motorsports driver just has not been able to stay in a good position. The lack of led laps is more troubling. Take the under here until Byron shows otherwise.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 51.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The fact that Martin Truex Jr. begins the 400-lap race in 14th is not horrible. That gives him room to move upward position wise. Even with the bad luck last year, Truex Jr. had three top-tens and a win in those appearances. That includes two excellent runs where he led a total of 203 out of 800 laps combined. With the potential of setting a few fast laps too, Truex Jr. was faster in practice than expected. This is worth at least a look.
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Kurt Busch (Over N/A) -- The elder Busch starts in the top five again and probably should have been listed because of his results lately. Maybe his point total went off the board because of it. That is one to investigate. As for his brother, the last few races have been okay but Kyle has gone under nonetheless.
Brad Keselowski (Over N/A) -- Expect the unexpected I guess. Keselowski with his track record seemed a good candidate for a prop but not this week! Keselowski likely would have gone Over with place differential and his ability to drive well at Charlotte late. Christopher Bell starts third on Sunday but would be a prime under candidate (38.5 points) because of place differential drops including a -7 last year.
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NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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