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It is finally NFL Draft week! I don’t know about you, but I am ready for this draft to be over. Question after question about where rookies will land and who will be the next Alvin Kamara or Myles Garrett. We can finally put a portion of that to bed with where each rookie will land, and try to decide which rookie will have the biggest impact in 2018. With the depth of talent in this draft, it could be any number of players that make their GM look like a genius.
This draft may be one of the most interesting drafts in recent memories. We will see several teams battle to find their QB of the future, several trades and a lot of talent that slip in the first round or even out of the first round. Expect a crazy first night.
For your reading pleasure, here is my final mock draft of the off-season. This is split into two parts, so I will cover picks 1-16 in part one and 17-32 in part two. I want to say in advance: you will not agree with a lot of these picks. These are not meant to be hot takes or even bold predictions. This mock is supposed to cover some potential trades in the draft, picks that meet each teams need and some analysis of why I think that pick could happen. All of the mocks you read will be irrelevant in a few days anyway, so let’s have some fun with it!
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Mock NFL Draft 2018
1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen- QB, Wyoming
Let me get this out of the way right now. I hate this pick and will hate it just as much on draft night, because most everyone feels this is what will happen. Allen needs a lot of work and would be better suited to land on a team that has a top level QB that will be done soon. In a perfect world, I would rather see Allen sit behind Drew Brees or Tom Brady for the next two to three years before getting his shot. Knowing the Browns, Tyrod Taylor will be here for 2018 and then Allen takes over after, but is that really enough time?
2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen- QB, UCLA
There are a lot of reports out that the Giants will take Saquon Barkley with this pick, but that is probably just a smoke screen. The Giants may be okay with any of the top QBs and they would rather trade back for multiple assets on a team that really needs it. I don’t think anyone bites though and the Giants make the pick, but get a QB of the future instead. The Giants have watched first hand that a franchise QB can give years of stability to a team and that will lead them to making the correct decision here and drafting Rosen.
3. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield- QB, Oklahoma
Mayfield is my QB1 in this draft. I think he has all the talent and the confidence to go with it. Why would the Jets go with Mayfield here? Well, there was a time when the Jets had another QB with a little bit of swagger and a huge personality that worked out okay. Joe Namath and his large personality survived in New York, so I think Mayfield will be just fine. I see Mayfield starting by the end of the season if he lands here.
4. Cleveland Browns: Bradley Chubb- DE, NC State
The Browns are already back on the clock and they have a few choices here. They could trade back, go with Barkley as best player available, or do the right thing and take Chubb. I know, asking the Browns to do the right thing is a lot, but I think they actually do it here. Chubb and Garrett on the defensive front will be a problem for teams and will take a lot of pressure off the secondary to stay on their man for an extended period. To me, it’s much more critical for the Browns to take Chubb at the top of the draft then a QB or Barkley. But again, we are asking them to do the right thing.
5. Buffalo Bills (Mock Trade with Denver): Sam Darnold- QB, USC
The Bills took a chance to see if they had a QB in Nathan Peterman last season, and it lasted one half, but boy was it an awful half. I will say that you can’t judge a player based on one half of football, but the Bills have shown they are not good at judging anything at the position recently. They may have added AJ McCarron as well, but they want their future QB and will make the move to do it. The Broncos will also want a QB, but decide to move back here thinking they can spend a pick later to get one. You will see why that doesn’t work out.
6. Indianapolis Colts: Saquon Barkley- RB, Penn State
The prospect of the century will fall all the way to the Colts and they will gladly take him. A rush for QBs will lead to Barkley falling to this spot. If Andrew Luck is healthy, this offense could be really good, but it will be dependent on the play of the offensive line. Honestly, that will worry me with Barkley in year one if he does land in Indy. For Barkley to fall here, you will need to ask the Giants and Browns to pass on him and oblige. It will take a little luck for this pick to happen, but it is still realistic.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derrius Guice- RB, LSU
The Bucs almost get Barkley to fall to them, but get a shot at the second best running back in the draft. They could also go safety or corner at this pick, but they want to give Jameis Winston as many weapons as possible to succeed and adding a tough running back to take the pressure off of him is a must in this draft. If the Bucs decide to skip on a RB here, they should still have a shot at one in the second round, based on my mock anyway.
8. Chicago Bears: Quenton Nelson- OG, Notre Dame
The bears have invested a lot of money and time into beefing up their offense the last two seasons. The only way this offense runs the way it’s supposed to is if Mitchell Trubisky becomes the QB the Bears felt they had when trading up to second overall last season. The best way to help him become that QB, is giving him weapons (check) and protection (now check). People are in love with Nelson and feel he is beyond the best OL in this draft. There are much sexier picks that could be made here, but this will be a steal for the Bears by the end of the season.
9. Arizona Cardinals (Mock Trade with San Francisco): Mason Rudolph- QB, Oklahoma State
This one may be a shock to some, but the Cardinals would love to add a QB in this draft and they peg Rudolph as their guy. The reason for this trade? The Dolphins are looming at pick 11. The 49ers John Lynch showed last season he is willing to move back and accumulate some picks, and will do it again here. Trading up to an earlier pick will be too pricey for the Cardinals, but they could make this trade work. Rudolph has become more and more popular over the last few weeks and has really vaulted into consideration as a top QB in this draft. The Cardinals will end up loving this trade and pick, maybe even by the end of the season.
10. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jackson- CB, Iowa
This is where things get interesting in my mock draft. This pick is a mix of “this makes sense for them” and “this is what I think they should do.” Hear me out on why they decide to pass on Roquan Smith. The Oakland defense gave up the 10th most total yards last season with 5,601 and the seventh most pass yards with 3,858. Not only that, but they only had 5 interceptions last season which was worst in the league. A -14 turnover differential can be a big deficit even with the weapons they have on defense. That will be hard to change in 2018 when you play against Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Raiders need help in the secondary more than they need help at linebacker, so taking the best corner in the draft that is known for his ball hawking skills makes sense.
11. Miami Dolphins: Vita Vea- DT, Washington
The departure of Ndamukong Suh leaves a large gap in the middle of this defensive line. The Dolphins could fill it within house and be okay, but Vea has the potential to be a difference maker on the inside of a defense. Having a guy that can get into the backfield will be critical in a division where you have 40-year-old Tom Brady and the potential of two rookie QBs with the Bills and Jets. That’s a lot of disruption to be had.
12. Denver Broncos (Mock Trade from Buffalo): Denzel Ward- CB, Ohio State
So the Broncos may still want a QB, but now that Rudolph has gone earlier than planned, the Broncos feel they could wait on Lamar Jackson and get him at 22. Instead, they decide to go with Ward at this spot to jump into the place of Aqib Talib. Like I mentioned earlier with the Raiders, the Broncos know they need to have players that will shut down the great group of receivers in the AFC West. They would like to keep the “No Fly Zone” in place as long as possible and Ward will help with that.
13. Washington Redskins: Maurice Hurst- DT, Michigan
A little bit of a reach here as the Redskins decide to go with one of Pro Football Focus’ top rated defensive players last season. Hurst missed out on the combine after worry over a potential heart condition, but was cleared in time for his Pro Day and showed everyone why he should be a first round pick. Hurst has the ability to get in the backfield or stuff the run, which will be very important in the NFC East. The Redskins will be facing Ezekiel Elliott, Jay Ajayi and potentially Barkley (although not in this mock) twice a season. Stopping the run will be extremely important, considering Washington gave up a league leading 2,146 rushing yards last season. You could argue Hurst is not the best player on the board right now, but he has a chance to be one of the best defensive players in this draft and is a huge need for the Redskins.
14. Green Bay Packers: Orlando Brown- OT, Oklahoma
When you have the best QB in the league, you do everything you can to protect him. The Packers saw what happens when you don’t have Aaron Rodgers last season. They went from one of the best teams in the NFC, to missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Brown will help to reinforce the offensive line and keep Rodgers on his feet. The Packers should be paying Rodgers very soon, and you always protect your investments.
15. San Francisco 49ers (Mock Trade from Arizona): Marcus Davenport- DE, UTSA
Yes, San Francisco has a huge need at linebacker and Smith is still on the board and falling. One thing the 49ers need help more with than linebacker, is pass rushers. Smith isn’t that kind of player, but Davenport has the potential to be. Outside of Chubb, Davenport has the ability to be the best pass rusher in this draft. San Francisco signed Richard Sherman this off-season and while they are hoping he is still the same top-level corner, that may not be the case after coming back from an achilles injury. The best way to help with that is reinforce your pass rush and keep opposing quarterbacks from being comfortable in the pocket. Davenport will need some grooming, and while everyone is high on Jimmy Garropollo and the 49ers heading into 2018, they are not winning the Super Bowl. They can afford to take Davenport and continue his development.
16. Baltimore Ravens: Mike Gesicki- TE, Penn State
Baltimore could use this pick on a young WR because they need the help there. Baltimore is always in a position to make a run at the playoffs though and it may be better to skip on a WR this year and go with a top TE, which the Ravens do not have. The Ravens have completely rebuilt their receiving core by bringing in Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Give those guys a chance to work together and see if they can help Joe Flacco. You also need to give Flacco another weapon however and that is Gesicki. He could become a security blanket for Flacco if his report with the new core of receivers doesn’t happen right away.
Make sure to catch part two of Kyle Richardson's Final Mock Draft on Thursday, April 26th.
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